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-   -   Box Quinellas (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=10202)

Bhagwan 19th July 2005 12:04 AM

The coupling of 1 & 2 as per Angels question could be done if one feels its still value.
So one could throw these 2 in as a personal option , its only an extra unit.
E.g.1/23456
----2/3456
Cost $9.00
Instaed of the original $8.00

The example I showed , left out the 1 & 2 because most times when these 2 RadioTAB selections get up together , they pay very low divs.
I was trying to seek value.

It could be value if Dutch betting so long as the total percentage is not too great.

bluetown 19th July 2005 02:08 AM

What exactly is meant by, "the total percentage", in this case ?
Percentage of something is so diverse.

Bhagwan 19th July 2005 02:50 AM

When one is creating a Dutch book, some programs show a percentage the book is at as one adds more runners .
E.g. if the book is at 50% one will make a profit on the difference once deducted from 100% , in this case =50% approx profit
If the book percentage is say 90% -100%=+10% profit on the result , this is based on actual prices.

If the book is greater than 100% , no profit will be attained based on actual prices.

Cheers.

bluetown 19th July 2005 10:55 AM

So you are talking about fixed odds on quinella. (Re percentages)

But this would not be so on TAB payouts because the odds fluctuate prior to start of race and even after the start of race the late money affects odds as well.
One could make an allowance prior to bet of a price drop but even then this can bring a downfall if the late plunge is huge.
How many times has a runner been shown to pay 8.00 and ends up paying far less ?
I am not doupting your comment, but trying to sort out this percentage factor you say on quinella/hedge. It makes no sense to "hedge a quinella".
1st and 2nd is 1st and 2nd and bet the field or part of cannot be hedged on quinella.
Differant if hedge 2, 3 or more for win, that I understand.
But hedge quinella, sorry but I don't see it.

Bhagwan 20th July 2005 04:39 AM

The price fluctuations is always a problem when using the TAB for any Dutch betting , one hopes to target larger pools where the fluctuation is less dramatic. e.g. $50,000+ win pool

bluetown 20th July 2005 12:35 PM

From what I gather and have read up on, Dutch Betting is for track and/or fixed odds in the real sense of a Dutch Calc.

While on the subject of Late Money Plunges, I often wondered how the TAB figures the payout when less than what one assumes at the time of placing their bet.

Let's say it was showing 8.00 Win.
Bet On.

Then let's say hypotheticaly there were no other bets on that race.
And the Win Pool was whatever it is , 50k for example.

You would still get 8.00 payed if it wins @ 50K Win Pool ?

The other scenario, let's say the Win Pool increases to 80K, bets are On that same runner, so 30K went on that runner which was paying 8.00 @ 50K Win Pool but now showing to pay 6.50 but the Win Pool increased.

Why then can't the TAB pay the price on the 50K pool when I put my bet on, and for the others who bet the last 30K get the 6.50 Div. instead ?

Because they contributed 30K collectively on that runner *after* my bet of a WinPool which showed 50K for 8.00 Div.

It should be paid accordingly but somehow if there is a late plunge, we all seem cop the shorter price.

How does the TAB figure this out ? What's the math the do to pay less if your runner was showing 8.00 but paid 6.50 or whatever ?

beton 20th July 2005 01:03 PM

The TAB works on a tote system. ALL wagers are gathered then their (TAB 15%) margin is deducted and the remainder is divided between the punters that were lucky enough to back the winner. ALL prices on the board are only indications of what the payout would be if the betting stopped immediately. It is not until all late bets are in and the computor has tabulated everything that the final prize pool and subsquently the payout is known. Up till then you are punting on an unknown factor.

Regards Beton

bluetown 20th July 2005 07:14 PM

Right, so we are now down to "unknown factor" of the equation.
We assume 8.00, we don't know of any late plunges, so it's a stab in the dark.
And they got your hard earned $$, and the punters end up hoping.
Dammit if you do and Dammit if you don't.

gazman 20th July 2005 09:29 PM

get a fix
 
hey bluetown,the tab is just a broker(in more ways than one)just take the fixed price option and 80% of the time you'll be worse off than the pools unless the greater % of money is going on your pick....cheers gaz..


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