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-   -   Easy Profitable lay System (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=20302)

Shaun 19th July 2010 09:43 AM

Only excel and a good knowledge of how to use it because you need to combine formula with macros

place2win 19th July 2010 02:15 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 09:50 R1 1800m Mdn 5. Dellblu 6.4 (I miswrote Trinders Lane- Dellblu is the loser)
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 10:20 R2 1000m 2yo 10. Snip n Duck 3.1(had NSW/S-Tab @$2.4 No bet)
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 10:55 R3 1000m 2yo 4. Flying Minstrel 3.35(Agree, however listed as race 2 in error)
AUS / Seym (AUS) 18th Jul / 11:05 R2 1200m 2yo 5. Invincible You 7(Had Unitab @3.8 No Bet)
AUS / Graf (AUS) 18th Jul / 11:10 R1 1600m Mdn 2. Rodeo Playboy 7.2(Had NSW @ $4.60 S_TAB @ $4.40 UNITAB @ $4.90 NO Bet)
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:00 R3 1400m Mdn 3. Eumeralla Quest 4(Had NSW @ $3.6 S-TAB @ $3.2 UNITAB @ $3.6 No Bet)
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:05 R5 1200m Hcap 4. Red Ferments 6.4(Agree although diff in price)
AUS / Graf (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:20 R3 2350m Hcap 11. Pankratov 5.9(Had UNITAB @ $4.50 others $5 $5.1 No Bet)
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:35 R4 3800m Stpl 3. Key Symbol 3.55(Agree)
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:40 R6 1000m CL1 9. Tamose 7.6(Had NSW @ $5.90 others $7.7 $7 No Bet)
AUS / Canb (AUS) 18th Jul / 12:45 R4 1900m Hcap 3. Zate 3.1(Had UNITAB @ $2.3 others $2.7 $2.9 No Bet)
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 13:10 R5 1400m Hcap 2. Light Tan 2.26 (Agree)
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 13:15 R7 1200m CL2 7. Stallone 7.8(Had UNITAB @ $5.9 others $6.6 $7 No Bet)
AUS / Seym (AUS) 18th Jul / 13:25 R6 1300m Hcap 2. Overtake 3.15(All TAB's @ $2.4 $2.5 $2.6 No Bet)
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 13:45 R6 2000m Hcap 5. Blevics Belle 3.6(Had UNITAB @ $2.8 others $$3 $3.1 No Bet)
AUS / Cast (AUS) 18th Jul / 14:20 R7 1200m Hcap 1. Starshot 2.58(Had UNITAB @ $1.8 others $2 $2.2 No Bet)
AUS / SCst (AUS) 18th Jul / 14:25 R9 1400m CL1 3. Jive Queen 2.9(Agree)
AUS / Canb (AUS) 18th Jul / 14:30 R7 1280m CL1 2. Paramount Pete 7(Had NSW @ $4.6 others $4.7 $4.9 No Bet)
AUS / Kalg (AUS) 18th Jul / 15:25 R5 1400m Hcap 4. Sword Master 2.5(Agree)
AUS / Kalg (AUS) 18th Jul / 16:05 R6 1100m Hcap 3. Wocket In A Pocket 5.8(Had NSW @ $4.6 others $4.9 $5.3 No Bet)
As mine is only paper trialing at present, not sure if live action would have put a different set of figures at bet time. Although I did sit at the comp for most of the days racing and majority of selections and there prices at jump time were in agreeance.
This is very intertesting and will require more research.
Good Luck

wesmip1 19th July 2010 03:26 PM

Quote:
Maybe it all boils down to where you derive your price at bet time.
This is probably the most important thing of all. Hopefully over time it evens out (you miss a few and then get a few you shouldn't have layed) but I try to use the most up to date prices. I actually track the changes in the prices so that I know when each tab I am scrapping was last updated.

You can always pick selections priced under the middle tab $$$ as an alternate way of laying these, just a thought and I haven't tested it.

Shaun 19th July 2010 04:36 PM

Loss of about 73 units today but the strike rate was a bit down at 77% 31 selections 7 accidents but still in profit from thursday.

Shaun 20th July 2010 10:43 AM

I am going to try the $7-$40 price range today but will still be laying to a fixed liability

Shaun 20th July 2010 04:26 PM

Selections 20
Wins 19
Accidents 1
Profit $99


Not bad only betting on 2 venues, i find fixed liability a better option as i know my max loss per race.

Shaun 21st July 2010 05:47 PM

Selections 62
Wins 59
Accidents 3
Profit $249

I am glad i layed to liability that runner in race 7 belmont i layed @$48

wesmip1 21st July 2010 05:51 PM

Shaun were you betting the $7- $40 range yesterday ?

I had 63 lays and you only had 20 ?

I hit 3 winners being Towsville R1, Gellong R6 and Geelong R9.

wesmip1 21st July 2010 05:58 PM

I didn't lay the winner in Belmont R7. I had the low odds record at $39 which meant it could be up to $46.80 . The recorded betfair odds I had at the time my program checked was $50.

Maybe its due to the odds being used. I use the pink side of betfair (those wanting to take the bet) and not the other side (current lay odds). If the odds are not under lowest tote*1.20 then I don't place a lay.

Shaun 21st July 2010 06:06 PM

Not Geelong as for some reason VFG does not cover it with there RTO and i missed a couple races due to a mistake i put in my excel sheet so it didn't fire but yes the $7-$40 range.

Today i went up to $50 and the only selection i had over $30 was that winner and only 1 selection yesterday was over $30

I had 2 venues on Saturday not covered by VFG so they are excluded for me, i can only bet on those that show a price in RTO.

So far i have used small stakes my actual liability is $5 but i am planning on putting a bank towards this method, i will start with 5% liability per race, if there are multiple sections this will work out to less than 5%


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