OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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- - Stable Runners (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21393)

I have been going over a few figures and would like some input from members.

These are my current stats.
Outlay 34 Units
Return 47.42 Units
Profit 13.42 Units
SR 32.35%
POT 39.47%
AV/Odds $4.31

Early days but figures are ok, my issue is when i bring a new horse in to the stable i allocate 19 units to be bet on the runner, i did this so i wouldn't bring in more runners than my bank could handle.

The thing is am i going to need all those units for each runner, the answer i am getting from the figures and the fact the research i have done shows NO

If i convert the runs in to a percentage of bet that i would have on runners using a normal betting pattern say 2% this would be a total of 14% over 7 runs, if i convert the units to percentage this would be 19%

Looking at the average starts after a spell that i get a win would be about 4 or 5 using my units allocation this would be about 6% to 9%

So if you follow what i have just said the question would be, should i be worried about my bank being able to cover each runner going all the way to 19 units bet or should i just use a percentage of bank for each unit and let the turn over maintain the bank?

I think "don't worry". What you are talking about is the worst case scenario. The longer you test this on paper, the more you will be able to avoid worst case scenario and the more you may come to realise that 19 units are never reached.

Does that help? Anyone else?

I would agree getting to 19 units on most runners is unlikely.

April 28
SURVIVAL WYONG R8 No.5 (1350m)

April 29
RUN KYLIE RUN IPSWICH R5 No.3 (1100m) 1 Unit
PYROGRAPHY MUSWELLBROOK R6 No.6 (1000m) 1 Unit

April 30
LUCID REFLECTION ALICE SPRINGS R7 No.2 (1200m) 1 Unit
CURTANA CAULFIELD R3 No.2 (1000m) 1 Unit
FILLYDELPHIA EAGLE FARM R6 No.17 (1600m) 1 Unit
ALBERT THE FAT EAGLE FARM R7 No.1 (1200m) 1 Unit
ZERO ROCK EAGLE FARM R7 No.5 (1200m) 1 Unit
BUFFERING EAGLE FARM R7 No.6 (1200m) 1 Unit
FAVELA STAR EAGLE FARM R8 No.12 (1200m) 1 Unit
GLINTZ HAWKESBURY R3 No.8 (1400m) 1 Unit
DYSPHONIA HAWKESBURY R5 No.2 (1300m) 1 Unit
DEVILS ARCADE HAWKESBURY R5 No.8 (1300m) 1 Unit

Code:



Curtana +2.7
Buffering +1.72
Favela Star +2.13
Glintz +3.5

May 01
POWER PRINCESS NORTHAM R7 No.11 (1100m) 1 Unit
SHOCK VALUE NORTHAM R7 No.4 (1100m) 1 Unit
BLACKSMITH NORTHAM R7 No.6 (1100m) 1 Unit
LIGHT TAN PENOLA R7 No.2 (1300m) 1 Unit
RUMOUR AND SCANDAL SANDOWN LAKESIDE R5 No.10 (1200m) 1 Unit

POWER PRINCESS +2.06
LIGHT TAN +2.68
RUMOUR AND SCANDAL +4.24

Current Stable

Code:


Blacksmith
Carbon Date
Clueless Angel
Devils Arcade
Dysphonia
Fab Fevola
Faster Son
Fillydelphia
Glaneuse
Global Flirt
Great Man
Herculian Prince
How Much My Love
Lucid Reflection
Meet George
Palomares
Pyrography
Rebu
Rhythm Of Dance
Royal Devotion
Rue Maple
Run Kylie Run
Savage Hemline
Shock Value
Shoot Out
Streets Away
Thankgodyou'rehere
Yulalona
Zero Rock

Outlay 51 Units
Return 73.45 Units
Profit 22.45 Units
SR 35.29%
POT 44.02%
AV/Odds $4.08

Will endeavour to assist.....

if you can give me the following figures:

1. the number of bets you have had.

2. units outlayed ( have all the bets been for a single unit or have some progressed up?)

3. Total return ( including stake).

if you are showing a profit @ level stakes i.e. sames number of units for every bet, you don't need to allocate 19 units to each runner, you just need sufficient bank to cover the inevitable run of outs.

Gerry

Also, of course, need the number...

of winners you've had.