Not a bad day. There were 15 smiles from the 15 selections for a profit of $5.29.

Bank still ticking over like clockwork?

LG

Yes, L.G.

I didn't give much chance to most of yesterday's selections and consequently had some large bets. I ended up with a profit of $300.

My luck can easily change for the worse but at least its heartening that the selections so far have also a poor Place record which could indicate the selection process is not too bad.

Morning mg - good news that the bank is still happy!

I am convinced you have mastered the art(or you are closing in) on finding 1 horse with the worst chancing of winning, using a simple lens to focus on the 'wrong runner' in the 'right race'

If I may ask, have you found that ~

a. a horse placed in its previous run has an increased chance of being placed next up?
b. roughies seem to get up more often on metro tracks?
c. long shots at the bottom of pre post betting which subsequently firm into single figures at jump do not necessarily have a better chance of getting up than any of your other selections?

My Qs come from a different direction ie how to pick the right horse in the wrong = overlooked race, but feel that we both have something to learn here, albeit from opposite ends of the same or similar lens!

LG

Hi, L.G.

I don't really have answers for your three questions, all I can give is my opinion/experience.

a) I'm currently working on a Place system. One of the rules is that the selection must be placed at it's last start. There's been 11 days of real betting for 36 placegetters from 47 selections for a 28% POT (my TAB account is smiling). I've also applied the system rules to those selections that were unplaced at their last start, and the results are "in the red".

b) Unknown

c) Also unknown. However out of curiousity I often look around midday at the TAB prices of most of my lay selections, and because of their prices (one or two have even been faves) makes me feel somewhat uneasy because I think my ratings are out of whack. However with more money in the pool they ease to become an outsider. I can't remember if the reverse in the price scenario has happened to any of them.

Today's selections are:

Rosehill
2/11
3/8
6/9
7/16
8/17

Caulfield
2/12
3/10
5/19
6/16

Dombeen
1/6
2/10
5/8
7/11
8/3

Oakbank
1/6
2/5
4/9
6/13
7/13

Gold Coast
1/7
5/7
8/11

Taree
4/11
7/12

Kembla
2/6
4/9
6/13

Tatura
3/2
5/8
6/10
7/7

Wagga
3/2
4/7
5/7

Toowoomba
1/9
4/9
6/6

Ascot
4/8
5/5
7/2
8/12

41 selections.

Not a bad day. There were 40 smiles from the 40 selections for a profit of $22.49.

Today's selections are:

Sun Coast
4/12
5/2
7/6
8/14
9/19

Nowra
1/2
2/4

Mornington
4/1
5/8
7/11
8/14

Penola
4/7
5/2
6/4
8/9

Mudgee
2/7

Stawell
1/2
5/4
6/8
7/13

Albany
5/11
8/9

A terrible day today. There were 2 accidents from the 22 selections for a loss of $36.58 which fortunately still leaves the method with a healthy profit.

I made a mistake. If a selection is resuming from a spell then it becomes a no-race. One of the selections (Stawell 5/4) was resuming from a spell and I unknowingly failed to notice it - it turned out to be an accident. Because I listed it here as a selection I have to record it as one, otherwise the loss would have not been great and would have only just about wiped out yesterday's profit - bummer!

I hear you Mg.

The fact that you (a) fess up in here to the 'mistake' and (b) restate the correct rule is proof of your focus and credibility. IMO... you have the right lens here and none of us are machines, at least not all of the time?

Respect.

LG