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-   -   develop a system (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24187)

bernie 28th May 2012 04:22 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by bernie
That would be the bet as long as there was no other winner with one start in less than 18 starts
Should read ..no other winner with one WIN in less than 18 starts.

Barny 28th May 2012 05:29 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by bernie
That would be the bet as long as there was no other winner with one start in less than 18 starts.

Not my system. It was posted a long time ago with outstanding results. I was just checking.

Winners on Saturday:
Rosehill R3
Belmont R2

You post the outstanding results and the proof and I'll see what I can do .....

Betcha don't tho' .........

bernie 29th May 2012 11:09 AM

Barny, Betcha I do.

Here is the thread. Take a look at post 20 by swampfox.

stuningly and almost very simple win system

Chrome Prince 29th May 2012 11:39 AM

Selections 12,333
Win Return $9,774.30
Place Return $10,095.08
Win Loss $2,558.70
Place Loss $2,237.92
Win LOT 20.75%
Place LOT 18.14%

norisk 29th May 2012 11:51 AM

ouch

bernie 29th May 2012 12:08 PM

Thanks CP

beton 29th May 2012 12:20 PM

What works yesterday does not necessarily work today. I have a graveyard of betting systems that have periods of winning (some with quite long periods) but have fallen into a hole. Would they return to their winning ways? Maybe. Would I use them again? Not likely unless I learn how to smell if they are turning off again. A lot of systems just don't get the returns because every man and his dog (and the dog's dog) are on the selection. So in order for any of these systems to make a comeback, the strike rate must improve or we have to get better prices and most likely both have to occur. Any of these old systems need to be checked month by month and year on year. AND if it has some big divvies and those divvies are the bulk of the profit then you are flirting with danger.

bernie 29th May 2012 12:42 PM

I totally agree with you beton.

Lord Greystoke 29th May 2012 01:08 PM

HI Beton,
Without the benefit of a humungous data engine at my knee..

Would you agree that when one picks up an old system that was working say 5 years ago, and it immediately produces a winner or 2 from a random meeting picked today(and tomorrow) using exactly the same 'rules', there is a reasonable chance that...

(a) it still has legs
(b) few others are following it


LG

beton 29th May 2012 02:01 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
HI Beton,
Without the benefit of a humungous data engine at my knee..

Would you agree that when one picks up an old system that was working say 5 years ago, and it immediately produces a winner or 2 from a random meeting picked today(and tomorrow) using exactly the same 'rules', there is a reasonable chance that...

(a) it still has legs
(b) few others are following it


LG


Both with a big maybe. I would test it first of all, either by running it thru a data base or in light of no data base, I would test it on paper or live at minimum outlay. If it had legs and fell off the perch because it was overbet then it may still have legs. People get a lead into a system, have few wins and tell their friends which in turn affects the odds which in turn affects the viability of the system. When they start losing they move to next hot system and destroys that as well. A good system may work again if the selection method has a good strike rate or has quality picks. The biggest culprit between 5 years ago and now is computers and access to good ratings. A good rating service will have the winner in their top five, a good system has to be able to pick the top horse out of those 5 OR pick the winning horse that the ratings miss altogether. Most of the information that goes into the computer rating programs is the same, it is all historical data. It goes in and adds 1 plus 1 and comes out 2. A good system has to come out better than 2. Test your system with a small amount that you are comfortable with for a set amount. If you are not in front after 20 x $1 bets bin it. If you are in front play with the winnings and monitor your losses. Beton


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