Only 3 horses last year that were Australian.

I know. Sad but true.

Getting back to the original thread ..... The results of this system put paid to a couple of thoughts that we slowly move to smaller divs as the smarties do their research and get on board. Well, this proves that in this case that theory is wrong. In fact it is apparent that this system has improved over the years.

What say you now ???

Hi Barny,

My thoughts are that in many metro races with standard fields of 11-12, there are at least 3-6 genuine chances. Many upsets are related to pace and luck in running (ie when 'The Pumper' pulls their pants down) and the market often gets obsessed with one runner, pushing it way below its 'real price'. Look for these situations.

T.S.

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I wonder why!

Sometimes its a little like a form guide.
You have to filter the good and bad and make your own judgements.

Interesting a got an email from a friend the other day which raises a good point about the available data to the public. As you know 30% of favourites win long term. What factors are not available to the public would help increase this %.

A couple point raised include

a. The weight of the horse
b. Cardiovascular fitness of the horse
c. Blood count
d. Trainers intentions.

The debate around following the crowd was also discussed. I know many a firm believers of this, but I think with many traditional filters out there the profiting from the crowd is long gone.

New methodologies need to be created while looking for the different questions against the available data.

This time of the year throws up the question "what are the owners / trainers intentions?' I was speaking yesterday to an owner whose horse has won last 3 starts.
The intention is to travel for a prestigious Cup race. It was rested even though it was at its fittest. Trialed Monday and bolted home. They plan to give it a race in 3 weeks then 10 days to the race that they are getting it ready for. There in is the problem. Do they race to win, and have too much weight to carry, or do they race for conditioning. The ROCK - The HARD PLACE. All owners want a horse to win, having a horse that wants to win is what they yearn for. Try and tell that horse not to win raises a lot of eyebrows. The owner is hoping that the horse does not get penalized too much and hopes the horse get a legitimate check or gets boxed in.

In the next two months most races in the upper class races are full of horses that are being prepared for prestigious events rather than bread and butter events.