Chi Squared
 

Hi All,

Was playing with these lovely filters and found myself sliding down that slippery slope once again (4 horses started at provincial meetings at distances over 1800 and all lost so that must be a good filter.) So to cut a long story short (which you may be able to tell I can't do :) ) I "Chi'd" the filtered results.

I have looked at the following filters based on our results.
- Maiden/Non-Maiden
- Starting Price Under $3/ $3 - $4.9/ $5 and Over
- Metro/Provincial
- Metro Under $5/ Provincial Under $5
- Distance <1600/>=1600

Using Chi Squared, only 2 filters improved the results and only one of those filters improved the results greatly, and one filter showed slightly lower results.

For the purpose of testing I will now use 4 systems.
1. The Original System
2. SP under $3 System
3. Provincial SP under $5 System
4. Distance < 1600m System

We will recommence the testing period as of today, run each for 100 selections and then Chi and see.

Cheers
Brett

Overall
Selections – 85 Chi Sq. 2.39
Wins – 32
Win % - 37.6%
Outlay – $85.00
Return – $106.80
POT - 25.6%

Non-Maiden
Selections – 62 Chi Sq. 1.34
Wins – 23
Win % - 37.1%
Outlay – $62.00
Return – $75.80
POT - 22.3%

Maiden
Selections – 23 Chi Sq. 1.14
Wins – 9
Win % - 39.1%
Outlay – $23.00
Return – $31.00
POT - 34.8%

SP Under $3
Selections – 36 Chi Sq. 2.21
Wins – 20
Win % - 55.6%
Outlay – $36.00
Return – $46.20
POT - 28.3%

SP $3-$4.9
Selections – 33 Chi Sq. 1.85
Wins – 10
Win % - 30.3%
Outlay – $33.00
Return – $48.30
POT - 46.4%

SP $5 and Over
Selections – 16 Chi Sq. 0.17
Wins – 2
Win % - 12.5%
Outlay – $16.00
Return – $12.30
POT - -23.1%

Metro
Selections – 36 Chi Sq. 0.76
Wins – 14
Win % - 38.9%
Outlay – $36.00
Return – $43.60
POT - 21.1%

Provincial
Selections – 49 Chi Sq. 1.64
Wins – 18
Win % - 36.7%
Outlay – $49.00
Return – $63.20
POT - 29.0%

Metro Under $5
Selections – 24 Chi Sq. 1.38
Wins – 12
Win % - 50.0%
Outlay – $24.00
Return – $31.30
POT - 30.4%

Provincial Under $5
Selections – 45 Chi Sq. 2.93
Wins – 18
Win % - 40.0%
Outlay – $45.00
Return – $63.20
POT - 40.4%

Distance <1600
Selections – 64 Chi Sq. 4.17
Wins – 27
Win % - 42.2%
Outlay – $64.00
Return – $88.70
POT - 38.6%

Distance >1600
Selections – 21 Chi Sq. 0.15
Wins – 5
Win % - 23.8%
Outlay – $21.00
Return – $18.10
POT - -13.8%

Distance >1600
(Exc Prov 1800+)
Selections – 17 Chi Sq. 0.03
Wins – 5
Win % - 29.4%
Outlay – $17.00
Return – $18.10
POT - 6.5%

Some fine analysis Brett V.02!

I think you're heading for in the right direction!!

Best of luck!!!

Selections – Tuesday July 16th
 

Town 3 5 Windsor Gold
Town 4 3 Shekou
Town 7 5 Rock Melon

Weight
 

Dont know if it helps, but one i found to work very well with PP is horses with 60KG or over seem to be shocking still run the places though.

Selections – Wednesday July 17th
 

Doom 1 4 Shamtilly Lace
Doom 2 1 Dashing Supreme
Doom 4 7 Anonymiss Kitty
Doom 6 1 Pure Purrfection
Doom 7 4 Pure Whisper
Belm 4 4 Right Honourable
Belm 6 5 Keep On Dancin'
Belm 8 2 Luwian
Bala 2 8 Tudor Armov
Bala 3 2 Moonlight Forest
Bala 4 7 Lemerio
Bala 6 1 Umaluka
Bala 7 1 Green Ginger
Bala 8 4 Mustang Schiller

The Curse has arrived.
 

Hi All,

3 Winners out of:
- The last 16 bets for Original
- The last 9 bets for SP less than $3
- The last 8 bets for Provincial less than $5
- The last 14 bets for under 1600m

Very concerning - the fact that 2 of those winners were in the red.
More concerning - the downward spiral the original system was headed in

Am heading back into the cave to tinker with some more ideas. Will revive the thread if I hit some more possible ideas.

Cheers

Brett

Brett,

You have struck the same problem that exists when trying to find a profitable system using the Pre-Post favourite and that is a simple lack of value. I have spent quite a lot of time looking at PP systems and there are 2 things I have learned - stick to Saturday Metro and be more selective.

Good luck with your improvements.

Matt.

Thanks Mattio,

Thought the same. The purpose of starting this thread was to explore the Pre-post favourite aspect as I do think it can be profitable. garyf's posts on other threads make interesting reading which is why I have decided to look at the races.

Thanks for the well wishes...... We'll see

Cheers

Brett

It may just be the cyclical nature of racing .
i.e A losing run Always being followed by a Winning run and vice versa.

I agree Darky..............

Was just hoping the winning run would last longer.......... hahahahaha

Looking forward to putting my time into contributing to our ideas tank as opposed to putting up selections for a very poorly conceived system.......

Was always trying to get the point across that Pre-post is a good place to start. Still believe this is the case......

Look forward to continue working together.......

Cheers

Brett

P.S.... Queenslander!!!!!!