to marco
 

It would be great to hear from you.

I am at wendyl@austarnet.com.au

congrats on today. Always think its wierd when the shortest price pick is the only one that looses,. Congrats again

I handicapped WTA with the same formulas as ATP and gave up in financial fustration after 4 years. So I admire u greatly

Karla

Update
 

Update

33 Bets: 25 wins; 8 losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 33; Won 10.36; ROI 31.4%

Small loss for the day (.17 unit; 8.5% of day's stake) with Cho falling to Stosur.
Those early enough to get the $2.00 on Vaidisova would have broken even as she beat Sprem fairly easily.

The third round traditionally presents few beting opportunities as the heavyweights come up against the middleweights and lightweights. Probably
back to short prices. After this round finishes I should post around 8pm AEST.

Day 5
 

Kirilenko v Medina-Garrigues
Indian Wells

If you read the previous posts on these two players you'll understand why I'm backing Kirilenko. Reasonably short odds but still value at the price. Kirilenko
is in better form and is the better hardcourt player by some margin. I didn't expect Garrigues to get this far but today is a big step up for someone who just won her first game for the year.

Kirilenko $1.36 @ Ladbrokes
Bookies a bit slow to price up today but I don't think there'll be better
prices on Kirilenko.

Notes: I'm keen on Conchita Martinez over Jackson tonight but we're right on the value line. That is, I need $1.38 minimum for value and the price is currently $1.36. I won't get a chance to post again prior to the match, but if the price drifts then I'd take the bet. I won't record this in the history either way but its a sound bet at $1.38 or better - (the bookies being a bit slow is making for a long day).

Day 6
 

Update and Day 6

34 Bets: 26 Wins; 8 Losses
At Flat Stakes: Bet 34; Win 10.72; ROI 31.5%


Kirilenko saluted the judges yesterday as did our unofficial (won't be recorded) tip Martinez. I don't know if anybody managed to get the $1.38 on Martinez - the best I saw at my various bookies was $1.37 though I only had limited time to check yesterday.


Vaidisova V Pierce
Indian Wells

I've written quite a bit about Vaidisova over the past few posts so I won't repeat myself. Needless to say she's a red-hot youngster coming up against an experienced yet past-her-best Mary Pierce. I thought long and hard about posting this bet. While Vaidisova is a clear favourite in my stats (58.5% v 41.5%), she's only 15 and is relatively untested at this level. Pierce has the experience and on her day can still compete at the top level - however her recent results leave a lot to be desired. She's played very little this year (6 games) and this is only her second hardcourt tournament for 2005. She displayed a competent yet somewhat erratic performance against Cervanova in Round 2, but it's this variablitly in her performance that leaves her vulnerable. This will be a close match but on the balance of probabilites, Vaidisova is value.

Vaidisova; $1.91 - Pinnacle & 5Dimes


Kirkland v Craybas
Indian Wells

Another close match up. Kirkland is a young American with a strong serve and plenty of attitude. She's probably exceeded expectations in this tournament but has been impressive in her general play. Kirkland did benefit from an injury-plagued performance from Bartoli in Round 2, but has beaten the likes of Cho, Granados,and Diaz-Oliva on hardcourts this year. Her 42/25
record on hard reflects her overall talent. Kirkland's opponent Craybas has been having an ordinary season, so-much-so she dropped back tp the challenger circuit last month. However her losses this season have mostly been close 3-set affairs to reasonable opponents so she'll definitely push Kirkland all the way. Craybas also recorded a solid win against the over-rated Likhovtseva in Round 2. I split the match 50/50 so there's value on Kirkland at the price.

Kirkland; $2.20 @ Ladbrokes
(can't see this price lasting too long but still available).


Dechy v Stosur.
Indian Wells

Stosur surprised me by passing Cho in the previous round and her effort was a definite improvement upon recent performances. However Dechy should have too much for her today. The Frenchy has quite a few ranking points to defend here this week and has a relatively favourable draw to the QF's - so her motivation should be high. Her first-up game against Loit yesterday wasn't anything special but I still consider her all-round game superior to Stosur's. Dechy's mental tenacity can be a bit woeful sometimes, but the importance of the tournament may see a repeat of her excellent Australian Open effort - the last "big" tournament she played in. Historically, she always seems to lift for
these 'ranking' occassions.


Dechy; $1.50 @ SportsTab, Pinnacle, 5Dimes

Update and Day 7
 

Update

Bet 37; Won 28; Lost 9.
At Flat Stakes; Bet 37, Won 11.42; ROI 30.8%

A relatively good day at the office - Vaidisova let us down but I still think she'll be a good betting prospect over the next few months. Dechy did just enough to beat Stosur in a nailbiter while Kirkland won but played quite poorly.

The wind was really blowing today with quite a few players complaining about the effect it had on their serve. If the wind continues it will probably hamper players who rely on a big serve to win games. Are the conditions having similar effects on the ATP players?

Martinez v Kirilenko
Indian wells

Both players have made us money over the past few weeks so it's always "hard" to tip against one of them. However Martinez should be too good for Kirilenko on the day. As Pierce showed yesterday experience counts, and Martinez has been a professional player for 17 years while Kirilenko is only 17-years-old. The Spaniard has great variety in her game - slices, spins, looping topspins, drop shots - that often confuse younger players. As Martinez herself says "I never try to hit balls they expect" (eg: baseline rallies). Both players are in great form and both are very competent on hard. However experience and variety in the difficult conditions favour Martinez who I rate a 65.1% v 34.9% chance to win.

Martinez $1.80 @ Sporting Odds & SportingBet.

I expect Martinez to shorten in the market so this will probably be the best price.

Hi Marco


Thanks for the selections today. Yes Dechy sure was a cliff hanger. I think Stosur is one not to under estimate.

Can't go with you on Martinez tomorrow. I really don't like these 30+ people. I wonder if you should go back through your selections and see what the record is on these "oldies". I think Martinez lost for us 2 weeks ago.

As for the wind the ATP results wouldn't show much as the only big server in action was Roddick and he won easily 6-1 6-2 over an oldie - Novak. The breaks in serve in this tournament so far is enormous so you might be right, that is to stick with people who have a good over all game.

Got your e-mail ok. Lots of food for thought. Will reply later in the week. But thanks I appreciate the effort and honesty you put in to answer my query.

karla

Karla - thanks for the reply. Some interesting points in relation to
the ATP.

Martinez has been a positive earner for me this year as has Kirilenko. Some of themore statistical points that make me lean toward Martinez are:

Prior to this tournament she was 9-4 on hard for season.
Is 143/87 on hard over the past 8-and-half years (that's as far as my data goes back).
Solid wins over Myskina, Dechy, Peer, Linetskya and Groenefeld with in the past 4-5 weeks.
Won Pattaya Title in February.
Quarter Finalist in Indian Wells 2004. lost to Myskina (4th seed) in tight 3 setter.
Semi Finalist in Indian Wells 2003 - losing to Klijsters (1 seed).
Her current rating in my database is higher than it was in 2003 or 2004 Indian Wells tournament.
Her interviews over the past month - including the past few days - are very confident. She retires at the end of the year but reckons she's never enjoyed the game as much as she is now.

Kirilenko also has strong figures albeeit over a short time frame but loses points for success rate in
Quarter Final matches or better (ie: Semi Final and Finals). Her only Finals success was in the challengers last year, though she did beat Na Li in Hyderabad QF's this year.
Her performances at Indian Wells are negligible, though this is partly because she is young.
In the previous round Garrigue had seven break point opportunities but only made three. In Round 1 Bovina had 7 break point opportunities but only converted 3. If Martinez gets the same opportunity to break, I believe she'll have a higher conversion rate.

That said, Kirilenko can clearly still win. I just believe the value's with Martinez.

PS: It's a sad day when we both call 32 year-olds "oldies". I'd be happy to be 33 again :-)

Update

Bet 38; Won 30; Lost 8
At Flat Stakes: Bet 38; Won 12.2; ROI 32.1%

Granny Martinez managed to get across the line though she served poorly. Seems the wind died down today but the forecast for tommorrow is strong gusts at 30-40mph. Could be another tough day on court.

We're down to the final 8 so there'll be fewer tips over the next couple of days.

Not much else on offer tonight price wise. For the record, I doubt there'll be any surprises tonight though the weather may play a part in proceedings.
Clijsters to beat Martinez but way too short.
Kuznetsova to beat Dementieva but too short (need minimum $1.60 for overlay).
Davenport to beat Dechy but price about right.
Sharapova to beat Pierce but price about right.

Not exactly rocket science so we'll wait for the semi's.

Morning Marco


Well done on selecting Martinez. Forums are here for the purpose of exchanging information. I am actually more happy that your opinion proved correct than if mine got up.

Having an error of judgement is one thing but not learning from it turns it into a mistake. I think the lesson here is that the ATP and WTA are 2 different entities. Comparing one to the other is like comparing apples to oranges as the cliche goes.

I can give you heaps of stats that suggest Atp players are bad bets past the age of 30 but this may not hold true for the women. Lack of depth at the top maybe?

Obviously though comparing my experience in ATP to WTA is not the way to go.

Good work
Thanks
Karla

Semi Final
 

Clijsters v Dementieva
Indian Wells - Semi Final

An interesting match-up - the ex-champion Clijsters showing great form while coming back form a wrist injury versus the up-and-down yet classy Dementieva who has been defying opinions and a lot of money all week by continuing to win. The factors in Clijsters favour include her great record at Indian Wells, her success rate in Semi-Finals and Finals, her 5-1 h2h over Dementieva (though some of these matches are dated), her ratings improval in my database has improved over the past month more than Dementieva's (both form and surface), and her motivation during interviews has been very positive. As a minor aside (purely anecdotal), we're likely to see the return of her arch rival Henin-Hardenne from injury next week so Clijster's will be looking to outperform her in comeback matches (this is a HUGE rivalry). Dementieva is certainly capable of beating Clijsters and has an excellent record on US hardcourts. She's played well at Indian Wells before and has just beaten one of her Russian rivals Kuznetsova in the Quarters. Her matches this week have involved an element of 'luck' as both were comeback from behind victories. Her weakest link is her serve which can be all over the place - something Clijster's with her new aggressive technique will be looking to exploit. Dementieva has also been complaining in interviews that she's playing her worst tennis for years - though she's still winning! The Russian claims to be having trouble concentrating but whether these are just mind games with her opponent we're yet to see. I have Clijster's as a clear favourite and while she's right on the value line, I'll take the bet.

Clijsters $1.50 @ Pinnacle and Betfair.