And 2 tubs of marge stops a dishlicker every time, used all the time, a few runs full of marge, odds go out and out, time is ripe, no marge, big odds and wins.
I know I'm getting off the subject, but what I'm trying to get through is this business is about money, not the love of dogs or horses, and thats why I Admire anyone that can consistantly win doing form as there is so many unknowns out there that the best form student can ever know.

Yes I had a good read as well.
I don't suggest to follow the method,but I believe there is much knowledge there regardless.

First time blinkers on
 

Some people can't see because they choose not to.
Even me sometimes.

Sorry shoto; I was distracted and forgot to answer the question about "class".
Since it's a big one I'll start a new thread for it!

wrong
 

all this is simply not correct, small horse, big horse - who cares? horses are not people & to compare them as above, it just dont work that way.

in your example of horse A has ability & is fit & horse B doesnt & isnt, whats going to happen? B's going to win because it ways 100kg more than A? pppfff!

what counts is not a nags weight but the size of its ticker, & since we cant cut em up to have a look how big it is until they have karked it, we can only guesstimate the size of it.

A weighty problem
 

G'day all. Nice to see that there are still a few of the diehards here. I've noticed Moee, Kenchar and Chrome Prince already and of course my old mate Baggy! Hope you guys are hammering the bookies!

On the subject of weight it is only one of the many factors we punters have to consider when studying form. To concentrate solely on weight as a deciding factor when assessing the chances of a runner is not going to work in your favour for very long if at all.

I believe that the weight hype is just a bit of punting lore from years ago when there were massive weights carried and huge differences between top and bottom weighted horses. Today, with much higher minimum weights, weight doesn't become as important as in those earlier years but we (older) punters still have that weight thing embedded in our minds and of course younger punters always listen to us wise old sages! Yeah, right!

Personally, I never support a runner if it is carrying more weight than it has ever won with before AND I have a "weight maximum" that forms a part of my selection method but then again it is only one of 9 considerations for me.

I can't cop the "lengths = weight" theory either but I still see punters religiously working that factor into their selection methods. Unfortunately, it is not as simple as that and individual race circumstances cannot be covered by a blanket theory.

Punting experience is probably the most important asset when considering whether or not weight will influence your final selection.

Final thought: Many course records have been broken by horses carrying big weights (Century Kid comes to mind) but generally that will only happen in sprints with lower class opposition where the pressure is not as intense.

Cheers

Privateer

Davez has had enough, and I'm not surprised!!! When I started all this about weight of horses etc (see POST #6) I had a suspicion it would lead to exasperation as I,once upon a time, falling for the whole ratings hokum, trying to quantify that which is not quantifiable, became exasperated. The more you try to be "scientific" the more imponderables crop up: the more "factors" you discover, the more the variables multiply. As I 've wondered before: did MY horse have a barking dog keep him awake all night prior to that "disappointing run" at Eagle Farm? Was MY "boom colt" thinking of girlies last Spring, instead of races?? Was YOUR jockey dwelling on the breakfast bust-up he'd had with his missus instead of today's pace tactics? Who could possibly know?
The key to it all is to keep it simple. We punters are not working for the astrophysics dept of MIT!! We are not required to have a slide rule,or a complete set of Algorithmic tables, to place a bet!! Ratings are often a waste of time and rarely work at all unless applied with "feeling". But then......... you're better off working on your "feel", in that case.
Having got thus far,the next step is to decide who/what to have a "feel' FOR!! And here I look at the trainers since it is they who place the horse and it is up to them (almost alone) to do it right. They have ALREADY "rated" the horse and decided on where it should be.The "odds" are not really about the horses chances in any given race but, more importantly,are a direct judgement of the trainer's decision to PUT the horse in that race!! So ,all my punting colleagues, here's the clue:Assess the trainer's motives correctly and you're 90% "home" without even doing "the form" at all!!! By, and good punting to all

Sot on Punter 57. "The key to it all is to keep it simple" See my post in the thread entitled "Am I old fashioned."

I'll just keep backing the horses lumping huge weights around, who are fit and in the market ;)

Belmont R1 1 Geil 57.0kg +2.5kg Won $3.90
Belmont R3 1 Money Exchange 60.0kg +4.0kg unplaced
Belmont R6 1 Stir Pak 59.0kg +2.5kg unplaced
Belmont R7 1 Impressive Stats 57.5kg +.5kg Won $3.50

Gday all

kinda bears out my comment about horses carrying over 59... by all means back them and sure the odd few will win.. but in the long term they are duds, and duds that are usually overbet at that..