If you had layed Grand Palais with real money of $10 and at the odds stated in your post, then only $95 would have been deducted from your account.

The formula is Stake X Odds, less the stake.

Your calcs on Sequinella are correct.

Totally destroyed on the last couple races haha

Good try :(

You need an angle. You can't do it just on price in Australia.

Pengo, it is not the horses you are picking, it is the odds and staking.

You have had your biggest lay at 29% over TAB odds plus commission that's 34% over TAB odds.

You can go up and down the market picking shorties, mid-priced, longshots, horses you don't think will win etc. but the reality is that your staking is waiting for disaster and your odds ensure you'll lose.

Would you back an even money favourite at $1.54 on Betfair when it's $2.00 with the TAB, essentially this is what you are doing.

I'm thinking maidens, make a shortlist of horses that have run 8 or more races and not placed. They will be longshots but the idea is that if they were going to do anything they would have done so by now.

Of course, but if you select a horse that wins, its got nothing to do with staking or odds.. You'll still lose regardless what odds or stakes you put...

All the odds or staking does is limit the potential losses on the bank. I was going for broke, and I got what I was going for. Plus its just monopoly money :) And I was going on price, putting my faith in the market doing the work for me. So price would tell me what isn't likely to win.

If I limited my liabilities to no more than 5% of the bank, I'd still be alive, but again I was going for broke and trying to make back the bank quickly.

My next exercise will be maidens, and I will limit the bank to about 20% this time.

Well that's a start. What you really want is what I call the "hopeful" horses. Those that have a little bit of support in a race where alot of the money has gone elsewhere. You'll find that many of these are "not quite right". They're generally around the $5-$11 mark. Remember only one other horse needs to beat them.

Really stay away from the longies. I wasn't going to work today but have. I've layed 18 for 2 accidents. My average matched price is $6.61. I've only layed one in double figures, and that was at my max of $11.00. It lost. There's plenty of chances below $10. You just need to do a bit of work to find them.

Would u say FRENCH FRIARS is a hopeful?

But that's what I'm trying to explain, you are looking at the fact that you lost one bet, not why you lost most of your hypothetical bank.

Pengo, at least try this if you're going to take any old odds....

Lay the horse for a win for one unit.
Back the horse for the place for two units.

That horse wins and you lose around 7 units instead of 11 units
That horse just runs a place you lose 4 units
That horse runs unplaced you win one unit.

Maximum win 1 unit
Maximum loss 7 units.

$7.00 ;) TAB $8.50 :eek:

Maybe but it's at Ascot. I can't lay in WA so I've not bothered to look.

Something like Vain Ali or Stormbay Lilly in the next at Devenport. But you'll struggle to get a price. One will win now just wait, but not with my money at thet price. :)

Bad example

What about Blue Sky at Randwick. Again I'm finished for the day but I would have layed it.

I would have still lost most of my bank at either TAB or BF odds for the lay.

I know why I lost most of the bank; again I was laying it based on the TAB odds being that its was unlikely to win. So I would take the BF lay odds so I could get the lay matched. That was the "angle" I was taking on coming towards my selections. It was assumed that the market would know better than me in selecting winners. I wasn't limiting the bank and was staking high amounts to win back the bank "at all costs".

Its a good exercise in not doing that tho, as something happened in that race that totally messed with the field. So its a good example for limiting ones liability when laying (for the unforeseen).

Don't get me wrong, if I was actually risking my own dosh, I would be limiting my liabilty and protecting my bank thats for sure.

What I'm trying to work out, is how reckless can I be, and how much effort do I need to invest for success.

A Stormbay won but not yours :D

What makes them "a hopeful" is it based on form? Something showing a place in the last 3 starts with an apprentice onboard?

Duchess Danewin at Port Lincon maybe.

They're supported but not too heavily. Actually these have been crappy examples as you'd have only got on the Randwick one. That's another thing to mention. I've usually twice as many selections than I manage to lay.

Hi Chrome ,
Can you give us an example on how that idea of win lay x 1 & place bet x 2 would work using say a $6 div?

For example.
The last bit that was mentioned , where 1 unit profit would be made, has me a little confused , I would have thought it would have resulted in a 1 unit loss because 2 units would have been lost on the place back component of the bet & gained 1 unit on the win lay component, resulting in a 1 unit loss if the horse finished unplaced.

One the other hand , at 3 units per race
If the 2 units were a place lay ($2.50 = 1.5/1) & a 1 unit win lay ($6.00=5/1) , all unplaced .
= +3 units profit .

If the lay place bet x 2 finished 2nd or 3rd (at $2.50 x 2) & win lay bet x 1 but did not win. ($5-3units...)
= -2 units.

If lay place bet x 2 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd($2.50) &
win lay bet x 1 (at $6.00) came 1st. (5+6=11-3...)
= -8 units

If out of 100 races x 3units per race, 15% should win instead of lose & 30% get placed
240-300= +60 Profit.

For this to work, we are assuming that a horses price runs slightly less to its theoretical chance of winning & in this price range of $6.00win & $2.50plc (or less)
In this case, 1 divided by $6 = 16.7% theoretical chance.
Field sizes of 12+ makes this idea work best.

Total = +60 profit from every 100 races = 20% POT

Cheers.

Yes, I'm quite tired, sorry I previously had it backwards, it's back it to win x 1 lay it to place x2 - oops.

Damn thyroid problems.

Hi Pengo,
Heres something you may like to check out.
.Target the 3rd fav in each race. 1 min till jump
.Must have a win SR of 10% & less.
.Preferably 10+ career starts.
.Place Lay bet this selection.

These have an average div of $2.00-2.90 when lay betting to place.
Try & keep within this range.
The SR for running unplaced, is approx 67%
One could now afford to do some progressional betting in this lower price range to pull back any losses.

Heres one idea ...
Keep going up the ladder
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 ect. until in front.

Cheers.

Thanks, I don't have the time to invest on determining the selections for the above during the week so will use it on the weekend.

For today, time to try the maidens.


Cranbourne Race 1
4. Rype
Bank 100
Betfair 19
STAKE 5
LIABILITY 90
Winning

BANK 105

Bank 105

Penola R1
5 Musty Springs
Betfair 7
Stake 14
Liability 84

Leaves you with $25. You cant even buy Old Kent Road.


Onlookers >> was refering to your mates on another site...watching you gee this site up. Im still sure thats the case.

Incorrect, but thanks for playing.



LOSING LAY

BANK 21

What I was doing to begin with and backing the long shots, seemed to have been the most successful for me!

So... are you going to fill us in?

Town 2 #5 #13

Lets try one of the long shots!

Cranbourne R3
2. Jacovian
Betfair 60
Stake 16
Liability 944
Bank 1000

Winning lay

Bank 1016

Gosford R3
11. Murray Dancer
Betfair 130
Stake 7.5
Liability 967.5
Bank 1016

Will be interesting to see how long it takes to break the bank :)

GOSF-03 6 Stand In

I'm due an accident though :(

Winning lay
Bank: 1023.5

Close, nice trifecta payout too.

T'ville R3
9. County Wilkes
Betfair 55
Stake 18
Liability 972
Bank 1023.5

Last for the day. This could be the accident.

TOWN-03 7 Marauding Flyer

Pengo did your bank just go from 25 up to 1000, or did you start afresh?

Whenever I start a new selection system, I start afresh.

Add Cindy's Score as well

Grand...i dont think anything is real in Pengo Land. I wouldnt let him be banker though, perhaps in charge of shuffling the Chance cards might be better. i ddi notice a few of the orange coloured ones sneek in there too.

Cranbourne R4

8. Stage Theatre
Betfair 55
Stake 18
Liability 972
Bank 1041.5

Winning Lay

Bank 1059

Gosford R4

5. Putheron
Betfair 34
Stake 31
Liability 1023

I'll swap you Park Lane for all your railways and utilities, but I don't have Mayfair!

mmmmmm...always considered that pair to be the game breaker.....lay the scenario out here if i take Park Lane off you.....

1. Is Mayfair still in the pack?
2. has precedent been set, as in, do we get to start again after this game?:) if i dont get Mayfair from the pack

Mayfair is up for grabs but you're currently in jail without a get out free card, and 4 other players are within a roll of it, so you may struggle. We start again when there is only one left standing...

Winning lay

Bank 1090

Penola R4
6 MEZAIRE
Betfair 40
Stake 26
Liability 1014