Post deleted. Please discuss the merits of what is posted and NOT the poster. Thanks.

Hi, I don't buy into the argument, but just want to make a comment.

In all my life I maintained the maxim, that if someone else can do it and be successful in ANY endeavour, I'm happy for them because, I have a chance too.

Once nobody succeeds for whatever reason, we are in deep, deep doodoo!

BTW I hardly ever bet two horses a race, and don't even bother with exotics.

Good luck

Post deleted. If you think somebody is using multiple identities, don't tell them, tell us and we will investigate. Accusing people in error is embarrassing for everybody.

Please discuss what has been posted and NOT the poster. Thanks.

Post deleted. Quoting a now moderated post.

Post deleted.
Please discuss the contents of what has been posted and NOT the poster. Thanks.

Post deleted. Replying to a now moderated post.

Hi Darky, (or anybody else), just wondered which form factors you considered rubbish and which ones you think are worth considering.

Not asked in an argumentitive way but out of genuine interest.

Also is 2 to 7% P.O.T the most you think that you could reasonably expect to achieve over a long period on the punt.

Thanks Peter

I'm not embarrassed!

peter m,

2 - 7% POT is certainly achievable. There wouldn't be too many big players around who have better figures than that. If they do, they aren't turning over very much.

In regards to form factors, you can certainly rule out any nonsense such as "using the first letter of the day to find in a horses name as a selection". Unfortunately there is a lot of those ridiculous systems posted on here. And to be honest I would discount everything that any person who posts that stuff says. It will get you no where.

pelicanpete,

Do you have anything to offer to the discussion in regards to Darky's claims of:

1) That no one can win long term punting horses

2) That no professional punter only backs 1 horse per race

If you do, would love to hear it, otherwise you should listen and try and learn.

pelicanpete,

The moderators have already rejected your false claims of me being Mr Barry, so why don't you concentrate on just the 2 points of discussion I have highlighted above, and communicate like an adult?

Darky,

It seems your problem is fairly simple. It's the problem most typical "bet at the local TAB" punters have.

You seem to think you need to find the winner of every race you bet on.

What you need is a method that selects a group of horses with a long-term edge. Whether that method throws up 1 or 3 or 4 selections per race is irrelevant. What is relevant is whether your method provides value selections long-term.

So putting it in simple terms for you, stop looking for winners and start looking for value.

Thanks for the reply lighthuman2010.

Re the first letter of the day and third letter of horse should be ''r'' I kind of figured they were a joke and were made tongue in cheek and to be taken as such.

I was refering more to form factors which are considered important and taken as Gospel such as last start finishing position , beaten lenghts, API, win%, place%, weight on or off, weight above limit, last 3 to 5 start total SP, days last start, fitness patterns etc etc.
Which are rubbish and overused and which are worth taking into consideration ?

Ultimately Peter, I don't believe there is a single correct answer to what to asked. Those factors can all be good and bad, for instance, one of my favourite 'gospel' factors is barrier draws. I like horses starting from unfavourable draws myself and do okay from them, and enjoy laying those in good barrier draws (obviuosly theres more to it than just the barrier draw), but I'm sure there just as many if not, who only consider the favourable draws to back, and lay the outside barriers.

Really, I dont believe there is any form factor you can say is rubbish and totally discount, its more a matter of trying to take all the info into account and making trying to make the right decision.

Peter,

They are all good factors to be considered, with some reservation.
I'm not going into much detail, there were books written about the subject, just want to give you some idea, I'm using.

Last start finishing position, what value do you put on a 10 len. third in a 6 horse race?

Beaten len. is important, BUT only in conjunction with the class of race and distance + number of runners, it tells you a lot about the horse's form, fitness.

win and place % alone are utterly meaningless, I can point out some horses with 90% place and 50% win, and take them even to a moderate city meeting and they will fail hopelessly.

Weight in my opinion is only important as far as the weight carrying ability of the horse is concerned, once you know that beyond a certain weight it can't win, that's it. Of course you have to compare ALL the horses in the race and then you can give advantage to those with lesser weight.

Weight above limit is misleading, again in my opinion, because the handicapper is badly handicapped by the lower and upper weight limits,
some horses would not have a chance even with the limit weight while the top horse should carry more.

Last 3 or 5 start, I use both, rely on the last 3 to 90% but I look at the last two years to confirm.
This I consider together with the days to last start.

fitness patterns: I have both of the author's (Peter Bent I think) books on this subject, and must admit I couldn't make any sense of it, of course it may just be that I'm a bit slow on the uptake, same as with time rating.

Regarding racing patterns, I studied them for some time and again couldn't make any use of it, I think for the simple reason that horses hardly ever race in the same class or distance every preparations in the same order.

Anyway, these are just a few thoughts, as I said there are many good books about it.

Good luck

No, sorry it was Barry Blakemore.
He wrote the "Key factor is fitness" and "Fitness the key to winning"

No matter, I didn't understand it anyway!

Good luck

This post has been deleted. Off topic. Flaming. No more posts like this thanks.

Post deleted. Please stop posting nonsense flames. This has NOTHING to do with the topic. Please take careful note of this warning.

peter m,

You're welcome.

I assumed most people on here realised they were a joke, but unfortunately the author of such nonsense actually states he backs them himself.

I would hate to think that anyone else would follow suit and take them seriously, which is why I made the comment about them.

As i said, anyone that says he backs such nonsense systems, really needs to be totally ignored on all matters with punting.

Iomaca,
Thanks for the explanation. I too have Barry Blakemores's books, whilst I could understand what he's trying to say I don't know if his findings are totaly valid. Reason being he only factors the winners into his statistics so in any race there could be several other horses with the same ''fitness pattern" that didn't win which aren't taken into account in his final analysis.

I've found that the last three starts total average SP compared to todays price is a good guide, especially if todays price is lower. Not a method in itself and there will be several horses in a race in this category but it seems to be a fairly good indicator.

I see that you think they are all valid factors but some having a bit more weight than others. Good to know not to discount them totally.

thorns,
Interesting point re barrier draws, seems to be a lot of horses win and pay better prices from unfavourable bariers.

So, does anyone think that it's possible to make money on the punt, not necessarilly a full time income but at least extra money without a $20,000 plus bank and turnng over 100's of bets a week?

A poster on here called Kenchar said he was doing o.k place betting a while back but just aiming for a certain amount of units profit a day then stopping.

peter m,

The answer to your above question is quite simple. Does your selection method have a long term winning edge?

yes or no?

There's your answer.

Thanks lighthuman2010, as of now I haven't actually got a selection method , just looking at different things on paper and seing what proves to be valid or not, testing out ideas and theories, many of which I picked up from here.

Like the other posters said maybe there isn't a cut and dried method but you just have to look at a lot of variables and factors and take it from there.

I've mentioned before that I'm not an authority at all, quite a learner in fact but I do have a lot of patience and am not one of these guys who "have to have a bet'', I can quite happily do a years worth research into different things and not feel the need to have a bet.

Good on you peter m.

I hope you haven't picked up too many ideas from the hard mechanical systems that the likes of Darky post here. Because to be honest, that's the reason they are losing long-term.

There's a couple of realistic options for you to frame your own market.

1) Concentrate on 1 or 2 states only and do your own form/video study

2) Create your own ratings database

or even use a combination of both and bet the value.

But again, stay away from any nonsense mechanical systems which seems to be the common theme on this forum. It will only end up turning you into a bitter old man that gets offended by others success.

I thought this is a good example to have a discussion about.

Darky has selected 7 horses and asked for a minimum of $8 for any selection to be a bet to cover his cost of the 7 selections at level stakes.

But unless he has actually priced each horse at $7, there is no logic why he is looking for the $8 price.

Why isn't he looking to find value for his top few selections at their true price?

The letter "R "system of course was a a bit of fun but dont disregard proven form factors /fitness and value as per my post.
What I wrote in the very good method posted was just basic form factors that actually work in the long term.
Everyone knows or should know the basics of horse handicapping.
Anyone who cant understand the very basics should learn them first and in my opinion very quickly if they want to make a success of betting.

Probably the very best place to learn handicapping is through the research of Malcolm knowles (in my opinion the best racing researcher in Australia)

Or at the very least subscribe to a reliable provider like Warren Block of the Wizard.(If you buy the Wizard online $5.50 the other 6 days of ratings and asessed prices are provided free.)very good value from a top provider.

Cheers
darky

Darky,

Good to see you talking about serious aspects of betting now.

If you say you are using a solid handicapping method that has proven itself to have an edge long-term, the possible reasons causing you to still lose long-term are:

1) You're not betting just the value selections from the method (eg. you're eroding your value by betting like you did in the example I quoted above)

2) Poor staking/money management

Without knowing exactly how you run your betting, it is hard for me to help. But I would strongly encourage you to do some more research on the above 2 points.

Good to see you're now having a serious go.

Given that my good friend and sailing partner is off test driving a possible new launch (boat to the layman), he has asked me to post todays selections on his behalf.

I have just got off the Skype phone with Mr Barry (just how many deck maidens (wink) do you have on that launch ??) he tells me that he is very confident today and will forward me the possible selections around 11am.

Today's possible investments are

15:47 asc R01 # 4 Greatwall Of China Pot of Platinum
18:35 asc R05 # 8 Stars Aligned Pot of Platinum
19:15 asc R06 # 9 Boto Vermelho Pot of Platinum
20:30 asc R08 # 1 Delta Bay Pot of Platinum
10:53 bal R01 # 5 Threebigrivers Pot of Platinum
11:30 bal R02 # 9 My Academy Pot of Platinum
12:42 bal R04 # 3 Gragarden Pot of Platinum
12:42 bal R04 # 5 Mambo Princess Pot of Platinum
14:12 bal R06 # 1 Jimoda Pot of Platinum
13:07 doo R01 # 1 Yield Curve Pot of Platinum
13:52 doo R02 # 1 Random Orbit Pot of Platinum
13:52 doo R02 # 2 Hour Of Peril Pot of Platinum
14:40 doo R03 # 2 Zed Man Pot of Platinum
14:40 doo R03 # 3 Dazzling Kind Pot of Platinum
15:27 doo R04 # 6 Wild Wilbur Pot of Platinum
16:12 doo R05 #12 Spot On Target Pot of Platinum
17:40 doo R07 # 2 Cat Eyes Pot of Platinum
13:34 dub R01 # 5 Semenya Pot of Platinum
14:20 dub R02 # 5 Old Gold Pot of Platinum
15:09 dub R03 # 1 Dame Maggie Pot of Platinum
15:09 dub R03 # 8 Ima General Pot of Platinum
16:38 dub R05 # 4 Written Habit Pot of Platinum
17:15 dub R06 # 1 Predicate Pot of Platinum
11:10 fle R01 # 3 Condelago Pot of Platinum
11:50 fle R02 # 9 Purple Pot of Platinum
13:20 fle R04 # 4 Soul Pot of Platinum
14:05 fle R05 # 6 So You Think Pot of Platinum
15:40 fle R07 # 1 Hot Danish Pot of Platinum
17:10 fle R09 #10 Demerit Pot of Platinum
13:37 gco R02 # 3 Essence'nrestraint Pot of Platinum
14:24 gco R03 # 1 Da Vista Pot of Platinum
14:24 gco R03 # 3 Flintlock Pot of Platinum
17:26 gco R07 # 1 Northern Praise Pot of Platinum
13:50 guh R01 #11 Shrewd Princess Pot of Platinum
14:35 guh R02 # 8 Canny Sprint Pot of Platinum
15:20 guh R03 # 3 Angle Fighter Pot of Platinum
16:05 guh R04 # 1 Pocket Battleship Pot of Platinum
12:47 mop R01 # 5 Motifs Pot of Platinum
14:18 mop R03 # 4 Elaparado Pot of Platinum
15:08 mop R04 # 7 Bondarchuk Pot of Platinum
15:52 mop R05 # 8 Kuitpo Blaze Pot of Platinum
16:37 mop R06 # 2 Reventon Pot of Platinum
16:37 mop R06 # 8 Our Iridium Pot of Platinum
12:50 mot R01 # 2 Marzy Pot of Platinum
12:50 mot R01 # 3 Johar's Beach Pot of Platinum
13:35 mot R02 # 8 Waterstone Pot of Platinum
14:20 mot R03 # 3 Four Legs Good Pot of Platinum
15:55 mot R05 # 3 Retlaw Lad Pot of Platinum
15:55 mot R05 # 5 Holdem Pot of Platinum
16:40 mot R06 # 5 Wadeema Pot of Platinum
12:28 new R01 # 4 Nickname Pot of Platinum
13:12 new R02 # 3 Concealed Weapon Pot of Platinum
13:57 new R03 # 8 Soi'vebeentold Pot of Platinum
15:32 new R05 # 1 King Sabeel Pot of Platinum
16:18 new R06 # 3 Soul Commander Pot of Platinum
17:03 new R07 # 4 Magic Glenn Pot of Platinum
17:48 new R08 # 6 Oakfield Belle Pot of Platinum
12:17 ros R01 # 7 Saramenha Pot of Platinum
12:57 ros R02 # 1 Kontiki Park Pot of Platinum
13:42 ros R03 # 5 Golden Millennium Pot of Platinum
14:30 ros R04 # 6 Fouette Pot of Platinum
16:46 ros R07 # 1 Joe Blow Pot of Platinum
17:31 ros R08 #10 Dissolved Pot of Platinum
17:44 tbc R01 # 2 Channel Crossing Pot of Platinum
18:24 tbc R02 # 1 Red Ferments Pot of Platinum
19:04 tbc R03 # 6 Sky Effort Pot of Platinum
19:42 tbc R04 # 3 Daydreamer Pot of Platinum
19:42 tbc R04 # 6 Spring Rose Pot of Platinum
20:57 tbc R06 # 2 Heza Guru Pot of Platinum
12:22 trg R01 # 9 Theyallfalldown Pot of Platinum
14:35 trg R04 # 1 Oh So Rosy Pot of Platinum
15:22 trg R05 # 4 Urban Gypsy Pot of Platinum

Now, remember there's a value component to each of these (which I'm not allowed to divulge) and a staking plan.

For all of those who ask, the selections are profitable in the long term at flat stakes (although only mugs bet at flat stakes). With the value component they are very profitable at flat stakes. With the staking plan they are better than gold - they're platinum.

Now, Mr Barry has agreed to send me the selections and the value component each day. I wont get the chance to post them here every day but I will be able to validate his claims.

Good luck to all. I would advise everyone to sit out these selections and not to place your own money on them until such time as you have decided that they are for you. Not everyone can bet in this manner and I would not like you to confirm a certain posters view of punting.

Good luck to all.

_____
pōrori

I dont think its possible. I know it is!

_____
pōrori

late scratching has bought this into contention


17:26 gco R07 # 7 With Heart Pot of Platinum

Profit on the punt is acheivable every day if one is prepared to stop at say 1.5% a day.

Thats 11% a week.

That works out at doubling the bank every 6.85 weeks compounded.

Most punters are not satisfied with that , they would rather risk large sums of money to achieve the elusive pot of gold.
Then say something like , I cant make money out of the punt , therefore it cant be done.

The safest methods are...
Place betting 8-12 runners
Betting 2+ horses a race 1-12 runners.

Make sure you stop for the day once 30% of bank is lost.
First bet should be kept small in relation to bank.

Try this method.
Place betting.
Target Fav on Betfair.
8-9 runners only.
Price 1.30+
Run your favorite filters over this selection.

100 unit bank.
Bet 1 unit then 2 units after a success then reduce by .50 unit after a loss .
Example
1 w
2 L
1.5 L
1 w
2 w
2 ect.

Stop once 1.5 units is made.
Bank should compound out to double in 6.85 weeks using the Fibonacci compounding rule of 72
e.g. 72 divided by 1.5 = 48 days divided by 7 = 6.85 weeks

This stopping bit is the hardest thing for a punter to do, it takes great discepline , because they see all the other successes that follow on & think thats the gravey train they should be on , then one day , that train ends up being a trip to ********, which results in the punter saying , "what happened to all my lovely money- not fair!"
Then they ask questions like , is it possible to make any money out of the punt.

The answer is it can be done by the right person with discepline.

Many punters believe you should load up your bets on a really good run & reduce your bets on a bad run.
If you take this approach , one will always be confronted with hot & cold days , praying to dead people & making human sacrifices to the punting gods for the next really good day, meanwhile they spiral slowly downwards into the obiss they have created for themselves.

They usually tell us they made $10,000 dollars once, in a single day.
This is more than likekly very true.

This tells us they must punt like that all the time, therefore they will have experience situations where they have also lost $3,000 on a given day x by 5 days = -$15,000 lost
But they will assure us they will get it all back on the next really good day.
Which they may very well do , that is , if they dont run out of money waiting for the really good day to arrive.

It's starting to sound a bit like the surfers waiting out there for that next perfect wave, it may take 1 hour , it may take 1 year.

If one where to tell a bank manager that this is the same way one runs their personal business , it would make his hair curl. Rightly or wrongly..

For the majority who wish for sustained profits betting every day , its usually best to target profits of 1.5-3.5% a day.

You may be able to knock Mike Tyson out in 3 rounds , but you would not like to go 10 rounds with him,. so why do it to yourself on the punt.

There's only four rules you have to remember on the punt, which most punters usually forget three of them.
That is....
Get your targeted profit & stop, stop, stop.

Post deleted. Posting large bold type is shouting. No shouting here. Thanks.

While I admire your determination for staking plans, I can't follow your reasoning here.

How can you recoup your losses when you allow a 30% reduction of your bank but stop when only up 1.5%?

It depends on your prices and turnover.
In this day and age with the competitive odds on offer from various sources it is quite possible to make a fulltime income with a bank of less than $10,000, if you're able to turn that bank over many times per week.
If you can turn over a $5,000 bank ten times then you are turning a $5,000 bank into a $50,000 bank with the same risk.

For example, I bet an average of three horses per race, cover 20 Australian races, 20 English races and 20 Irish races on average per day.
That's 180 bets per day.
So I turn over my bank many many times per week.
The odds of those horses determine whether I win or lose, the number of times I turn over that bank determines how much.

Stopping after a winner makes no mathematical sense, you have an edge or don't. However, some punters end up having silly bets or chasing losses, so for those with discipline problems, stopping after a winner might be the only way they can make a profit.

It could also be that their edge is in the early maiden type races. ;)

Best post so far in the long thread.