Bets 167; Won 110; Lost 57
Units Staked: 156.5 units; Won 18.84 units; ROI 12%


A good night with Pierce crushing Likhovtseva. Interestingly, Pierce drifted to $1.46 at the bookies and $1.50 at Betfair (net of commission) though I'll leave the original price in the record.

Final
This should be a cracker of a match but only a brave person would bet against Henin-Hardenne. That said, Pierce is in absolutely sensational form at the moment and is playing some of her best tennis in years. She can definitely win but I don't think she will - Henin-Hardenne is just an extraordinary champion. She says her goal is to finish the clay swing undefeated and not too many players have achieved that feat (or even been in a position to say it). The favourite backers have hammered Henin's price and despite everything I've said, I wouldn't be taking the $1.29-ish on offer. Hopefully some of you will have outright bets still running. Henin was my pre tournament tip and Pierce was my QF tip (see earlier posts).

We're on to grass next week so an interesting challenge changing surfaces.

Mary Pierce
 

For a player who a year ago looked finished she has made a remarkable comeback.

Although I think the Denamrk lass will win as I think she is near best in world when fit.

I will have to hope Pierce wins out of loyalty.

ABout 5 or so yrs ago in my first ever tennis mens/womend title doubles, at the French I took $50 worth of Pierce and Gostavo Kirten ( or whatever ) to win @ 175 to 1 10 days before start. --$8750 to $50 with Qld Tab.

Have since tried 16 doubles for 5 collects but never as good price as that french one.

Sitting up at 2 am in morning cheering Pierce and then watching Kirtens nearly throw away 2 set lead against some swede.

Go Mary, Go Mary


Cheers


Jaffa

Justine was a clear and obvious selection in this tournament. Amazing that someone could be overwhelming favourite but only 10th seed. As for Pierce, a great effort to come back from where she was a year or two back. I remember seeing her at the Australian Open last year and you would have got pretty big odds on her ever reaching a grand slam final again. She's lost a fair bit of weight since then.

Birmingham
 

This week sees the start of the short but intense grass season. Form is always tricky at this time of year as many players have limited histories on grass. Moreover, the most recent grass games were played this time last year.

Birmingham is an important event because it's the only grass tournament many women will get to play before Wimbledon (Eastbourne's Tier 2 status limits the field while Hertogenbosch doesn't play qualifiers). Thus the 56-women field is larger than the usual 32 for this type of event.

Sharapova is the No. 1 seed and a successful defence of her title will keep her within striking distance of the No. 1 WTA ranking. There is only one other Top 10 player this week in Alicia Molik, a competent grass-courter who is returning from a 4-week absence with an inner ear infection.

Some of the seeds to watch include last year's finalist Tatiana Golovin and Shinobu Asagoe who enjoys the surface. Lisa Raymond, the 2000 champion, is seeded 14.

A few of the outsiders may also play well. These include Daniilidou who, as always, has had a poor clay swing (she won Hertogenbosch in 2002). However she faces a tough first round match against Cho who reached the semi-finals of last week's grass court Surbiton Challenger.

Tanasugarn is another who hates clay but goes ok on grass as does Kristina Brandi who just won the C25 Surbiton Challenger. Both should improve their results over the next few weeks.

Lets hope the bookies get their lines out early - if they can do it for the French Open , they should be able to offer good service each week.

Birmingham

Bookies very slow to price up so I have to use Centrebet prices. I imagine there'll be better lines later as Centrebet have poor margins.

Half units today as grass form very hard to read first-up.


Kremer v Perebynis
Round 1

Both players have been in poor form during the clay season but this is nothing unusual for Kremer as she prefers faster surfaces. Her 34/20 record on grass is very good and compares favourably to the records of much better players. She tends to do well in Birmingham having reached the QF's in 20002 and 2004. Perebiynis is better suited to clay though she's a respectable 11/7 on grass. The quality of the opponents she has beaten however, does not match those of Kremer.

Kremer $1.87 @ Centrebet HALF UNIT
(will probably be better prices elsewhere within an hour or so)


Panova v Washington
Round 1

Two more players who have been in very ordinary form lately. However Panova has the edge on grass with a superior record and better movement on court. Her 23/17 record includes a few wins over good grass-court players plus she beat Washington 6:3 6:4 at Wimbledon last year. Washington has only played Birmingham once before (2002) when she was knocked out in the first round. Most of her wins on grass have come in Wimbledon qualifiers though she only went on to win one first round match in those tournaments

Panova $1.68 @ Centrebet HALF UNIT
(will probably be better prices elsewhere within an hour or so)


NOTES: I'd avoid the very low prices ($1.20 - $1.30) on players such as Stosur and Morigami. While they are deserved favourites, no one should be that short at this point of the season. Past results show quite a few First Round upsets - though they're not easy to pick. Also players like Mirza and Groenefeld have no WTA records on grass to speak of so their favouritism may be based on their hardcourt results. Too much of a gamble for me.

Bets 169; Won 111; Lost 58
Units Staked: 157.5 units; Won 18.77 units; ROI 11.9%


The results went 1-1 last night with Kremer playing well and Panova playing poorly. Some interesting results and a few upsets so a cautious week ahead. Mostly half units again during early stages.

I'm a bit under the weather today so will keep things brief.


Brandi v Jackson
Round 1

Brandi's just won the grass-court Surbiton Challenger and has an impressive 39/19 record. She's reached QF's of Birmingham twice before and generally plays well at this time of year. Jackson won two qualifiers against reasonable opposition so shouldn't be underestimated. However she has very limited experience on grass.

Brandi $1.44 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT


Granville v Keothavong
Round 1

Granville was a beaten finalist in last weeks Surbiton Challenger. She beat Keothavong in the Second Round of this tournament 6:1 3:1 ret. Keothavong only made Birmingham as a wildcard (she's ranked 238) and has a negative 12/19 grass record

Granville $1.30 @ 5Dimes (and others) 1 Unit


Fujiwara v Jidkova
Round 1

Fujiwara is a better grass player with more experience on the surface than Jidkova whose record is a poor 6/13. Fujiwara cruised through qualifying in straight sets - albeit against easy opponents - while Jidkova is first up on the surface. The Russian is also coming off an extremely poor 3 months so I'm not sure where she is mentally.

Fujiwara $1.64 @ 5Dimes (and others) HALF UNIT


Obata v Vento-Kabchi
Round 1

Looking for an upset here. Obata's come through qualifiers, Vento-Kabchi's first up. Obata has a 22/18 record, Vento-Kabchi has a 24/19 record though her best performances were more than 4 years ago. A fairly even match-up so i'll look for value on Obata.


Obata $2.30 @ 5Dimes HALF UNIT
($2.50 available at smaller bookies)


Tu v Weingartner
Round 1

Tu has come though qualifiers against a couple of reasonable opponents. She has moderate 13/14 record but has beaten a couple of good players over the years and likes it fast. Weingartner, who is first-up, has a 10/14 record and has put in a few good games at Wimbledon but she's coming off a run of 5 first round exits dating back to Indian Wells in March. Her last win was in February.

Tu $1.55 @ 5Dimes Half Unit
($1.60 available at smaller bookies)

Bets 174; Won 114; Lost 60
Units Staked: 160.5 units; Won 18.66 units; ROI 11.7%



3-2 last night for 0.11 unit loss.

There's been a lot of price fluctuation in the market which may reflect uncertainty over player form. Most of yesterday's picks could be found at better prices so I assume it will be the same today.

I'm still under the weather so keeping it brief.


Daniilidou v Vaidisova
Round 2

Vaidisova ahs a good junior record on grass but it's 2 years old. She has little experience at WTA level on surface and meets Daniilidou who is 22/10 on grass.

Daniilidou $3.00 Pinnacle Half Unit


Jackson v Kirilenko
Round 2

Kirilenko is another player with good junior form on grass but little experience at WTA level. She's an up-and-comer but Jackson is in good form at the moment. She came through qualies here and made SF of Surbiton last week (including win over strong grass player Tanasugarn).

Jackson $3.12 Pinnacle Half Unit


Dominikovic v Stosur
Round 2

Stosur's the better hardcourt player but far less separates them on grass. Stosur is 8/11 on the surface while Dominikovic, who played ok at Surbiton last week and came through qualies here, has 20/17 record. Their previous encounters, though not on grass, have been close (H2H equals 1-1)

Dominikovic $2.64 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Vento-Kabchi v Fujiwara
Round 2

Vento-Kabchi has a slightly better record and played had the better first round match. Fujiwara struggled with Jidkova who is an inferior player to Vento-Kabchi on grass.

Vento-kabchi $1.69 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Tanasugarn v Bartoli
Round 2

Playing doubles together this week but Tanasugarn is the better grass-courter. She has far more experience and better results. Bartoli has been in and out of the game with a series of knee injuries this season and has only played 1 singles game - a loss - in 2 months.

Tanasugarn $1.72 @ Centrebet Half Unit


Granville v Molik
Round 2

Molik's been out of the game for many weeks with an inner ear infection. She's a better grass-courter than Granville but is first-up on grass and first-up since playing Amelia Island in April. Granville made the finals of Surbiton last week and demolished Keothavong - as expected - in the First Round here. A small chance of an upset so taken on price.

Granville $3.54 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

Just noticed I forgot to add the live scoreboard link:

Website: http://birmingham.lta.org.uk/

The livescore scoreboard is well done for such a small tournament. Games start at 8pm AEST.

Bets 180; Won 118; Lost 62
Units Staked: 163.5 units; Won 21.35 units; ROI 13%


A good evening going 4-2 with the 'dogs' returning a very nice profit.

Plenty of upsets yesterday making for a tough round today (half units again).

These are early lines - there's been plenty of fluctuations over the past few days so it's worth keeping an eye on the market.



Jackson v Granville
Round 3

Granville deserves to be favourite but is way too short. These two played each other in the semi-final of Surbiton last week with Granville winning 6:4 7:5 in what was a close match. Granville was then beaten by Kristina Brandi in the Surbiton final - however Jackson beat Brandi in the First Round this week. Sure, Granville beat the highly rated Molik yesterday but Molik said her vision is still blurry from her ear infection and that she was happy just to finish the match. Both Granville and Jackson have similar overall records on grass so I think this will be closer than the prices suggest.

Jackson $2.70 @ Centrebet Half Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Sequerra v Jankovic
Round 3

Jankovic is ranked 20th in the WTA but most of this comes from her hardcourt and clay records. She has only played 9 games on grass at WTA level for a 5/4 record. As we've seen this week hardcourt form doesn't necessarily translate into grass court form, especially this early in the season. Sequerra is no superstar but she's played well over the past week-and-a-half competing in 7 games during this period for a 6/1 record. Her overall record on grass is 17/10. Jankovic is certainly an up-and-comer but so are Vaidisova and Kirilenko both of whom lost yesterday.

Sequerra $3.80 @ Centrebet Half Unit


Asagoe v Chakvetadze
Round 3

Youth versus experience and I'm going with the latter ss Asagoe has an impeccable 37/17 grass record. She wasn't at her best against Tu yesterday as she was first-up on the surface but despite the rustiness, she was never in trouble. Chakvetadze is yet another young player with a lot of potential but like others, she is largely untested on grass. She's played well enough this week but she's only ever played one grass tournament prior to this week (the 2004 Surbiton Challenger where she was beaten in the final). She can win today but it will be her toughest test thus far.

Asagoe $1.72 @ Centrebet Half Unit
(may be better prices later).


Washington v Parra Sontanja
Round 3

Should be a close match and will come down to who serves the best. Washington's been on top of her game this week beating both Panova and Razzano without too many problems. Sontanja got past the highly rated Hantuchova yesterday so she must have a chance today. However I'm of the opinion that the rusty Hantuchova who was first-up did more to beat herself. This should be close but Washington has been more impressive this week.

Washington $1.85 @ Interwetten Half Unit

Bets 184; Won 119; Lost 65
Units Staked: 165.5 units; Won 20.27 units; ROI 12.3%


A poor night going 1-3 and dropping a unit.

Tanasugarn v Granville
QF

Tanasugarn can be a frustrating player to back as she's prone to throwing in a 'shocker' every now and again. However such performances are less likely on grass as it's her favourite surface and scene of her best wins. Her 47/26 record points to her skill and preference for the surface. Granville's being playing well over the last week-and-half with her win over the returning-from-injury Molik being her career-best performance. The rusty Molik apart, she has yet to face someone of Tanasugarn's experience so today's match-up will be much harder. I thought the Thai would be shorter in the market and as my program rates her a 61.5% chance of winning, I'll take the perceived value.

Tanasugarn $1.85 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)

A bit of late breaking news:

Tatiana Golovin from France, the 5th seed, also moved into the quarter-finals beating the unseeded Rika Fujiwara of Japan 6-4 6-4, after aggravating her injured right ankle in practice yesterday.

“Today was really tough,” said Golovin. “My right ankle is really bad, plus my foot is sore, so I couldn’t even put my shoe on this morning. Today was just a really painful match.”


I had heard Golovin was struggling via some French news links but this confirms her status. Never an idea to expressly bet against injured players but I certainly wouldn't bet on her.

Bets 185; Won 119; Lost 66
Units Staked: 166.5 units; Won 19.27 units; ROI 11.6%

An up-and-down week as Tanasugarn lost last night. Haven't quite figured out her problem as she drifted in the market and traded as high as $2.35 from her starting price of $1.85. Didn't appear to be any injury concerns so perhaps the bookies and I just got it wrong.

Jankovic v Granville
SF

Granville's on the run of her career but I'll yet again predict her demise. She's played well over the past week-and-a-half and has proven she's comfortable on the surface. So too Jankovic who hasn't looked troubled by any of her opponents. She has a lot less experience than Granville but should be fresher given the American has played 9 games in 11 days. Jankovic has a definite edge in the mental 'gnarliness' department and has a better record in finals appearances.

Jankovic $1.61 @ WillHill 1 Unit
(early line, may be better later)



Sharapova v Golovin
SF

A battle of the beauty queens, both of whom have injury niggles. Sharapova took an injury timeout in the second set yesterday for treatment on her thigh before demolishing Daniilidou 6:1 in the third. Golovin is still battling a foot injury and was pushed all the way by Chakvetadze in yesterday's QF. This is a rematch of last year's final which Sharapova won quite comfortably. She has a lot of points at stake in this tournament and is hanging on to the world number two ranking. A loss here will further reduce her chances of catching Davenport. I rate Sharapova a red hot favourite and will take the short-ish odds.


Sharapova $1.25 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(early line, may be better later)

Bets 187; Won 121; Lost 66
Units Staked: 168.5 units; Won 20.13 units; ROI 12%


A better night going 2-0


Sharapova v Jankovic
Final

Sharapova's at short-odds but deservedly so. Yesterday's second set demolition of Golovin - whom I rate a better grass player than Jankovic - show's how much Sharapova enjoys the surface. Jankovic has played well this week and she served particulary well against Granville, but none of her opponents this week were anywhere near Sharapova's class. Interestingly, prior to this week Jankovic had a 4/4 career grass record and she mentioned this in her post match interview: “I didn’t expect to be in the final as I didn’t know how to play on grass very well before this week.” In short, Sharapova should have too much experience and has far more riding on the game in terms of points and WTA rankings.

Sharapova $1.22 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit

Preview

I expect quite a few betting opportunities this week with tournaments at Eastbourne and Hertogenbosch.


Eastbourne is the only Tier 2 tournament on grass so a lot of top players are here as a warm-up to Wimbledon.

Svetlana Kuznetsova is back to defend her title, Mauresmo and Myskina are here to polish their skills - Mauresmo says she wants to work on her net game - and Molik who'll be trying to reverse her disappointing result at Birmingham. Clijsters (who's playing on grass for the first time in 2 years), Zvonareva, Likhovtseva (who took Birmingham off due to fatigue) and Dechy make up the remaining seeds.

Plenty of other top players are here including Jankovic, Ivanovic, Asagoe, Hantuchova (2004 finalist), Sprem and Vaidisova so there will be some good betting opportunities.

Note that Henin-Hardenne isn't playing as doctors have advised her she needs rest. The virus that kept her out for so long last year is still in her system.


Hertogenbosch is the second event this week and while a weaker tournament, there's still a few good players here for a Wimbledon warm-up. The top seeds are Top 10 players Dementieva and Petrova while the likes of Schnyder, Pierce (2004 winner), Safina and a host of clay-courters including Medina-Garrigues, Dulko, Groenefeld and Koukalova (2004 finalist), round out the field.

Below this group are the young up-and-comers like Kirilenko, Safarova and Krajicek who'll be playing her home tournament (though she's here as a wildcard). Then there's the veteran brigade led by none other than Martina Navratilova who just refuses to quit. She's joined by the likes of Shaughnessy, Smashnova and Peschke.

The high ranking clay players may provide a few bets as they're always worth opposing on the faster surfaces. Some of the young guns may also be worth backing against a few of the rusty veterans - most notably Smashnova.


Back Monday.

Bets 188; Won 122; Lost 66
Units Staked: 169.5 units; Won 20.35 units; ROI 12%


Good win for Sharapova last night.

Bookies doing there normal slow Monday price-ups. Not much on offer today as ATP dominates Hertogenbosch and qualies/doubles at Eastbourne.

These are early lines that may well be beaten later but the markets have been all over the place during the grass swing.


Zvonereva v Vaidisova
Round 1 - Eastbourne


Zvonereva will be looking forward to grass after a poor clay swing. She has a 9/4 clay record including a SF here last year and solid performances at Wimbledon in 2004 and 2005. Vaidisova has a good junior record on grass but has only played twice at WTA level for two losses.

Zvonereva $1.55 Pinnacle 1 Unit


Domonikovic v RuanoPascual
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Dominikovic has played well over the past week-and-a-half. She was unlucky to lose to Stosur last week and had a couple of good hit outs at Surbiton. Her 21/18 grass record compares favourably to Ruano-Pascual's 9/11 record. The Spaniard is also first-up on grass.

Dominikovic $1.66 Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better at smaller bookies)


Shaughnessy v Smashnova
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Shaughnessy is the better grass player and has the advantage of playing last week - albeit for a First Round loss. Her 15/18 record includes a few good performances ia typical for a mid ranked grass player. Smashnova's 5/15 record contains a lot of First Round exits to some fairly ordinary players.

Shaughnessy $1.55 Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better at smaller bookies)


Koukalova v Domachowska
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Koukalova's was a SF here last year and has a 6/5 record which includes a couple of good wins. Domachowska likes it fast but has only played two WTA games on grass going 1/1.

Koukalova $1.55 Pinnacle 1 Unit

Bets 192; Won 125; Lost 67
Units Staked: 173.5 units; Won 21.00 units; ROI 12.1%

A good night going 3-1.

The losing bet Dominikovic goes into the black book. It's the second week in a row she's blown a good third set lead.


Cervanova v Krajicek
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Cervanova has a 6/9 record on grass, Krajicek has a 0/2 record. Both of Krajicek's losses have been during the First Round at Hertogenbosch where she's only qualified as a wildcard. Her 2003 loss was to Cervanova 6:3 6:1. Why then is Krajicek a $1.38-ish favourite? Sure, Cervanova had a miserable clay swing and lost first-up last week at Birmingham. But at least she was warming-up on grass unlike Krajicek who's first up here. Again, this is Krajicek's home tournament and she does have tremendous potential but is she a 72% ($1.38) chance of winning? The value is definitely with Cervanova though a cautious half unit.

Cervanova $3.27 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Asagoe v Raymond
Round 1 - Eastbourne

Asagoe let us down last week but she does have a solid grass record which includes good wins over quality players. Raymond is also competent on grass though her best performances were a few years back. However the 31-year old American is on a bit of a slippery slope at the moment having suffered a 6:1 6:0 First Round drubbing at Birmingham last week to lowly-ranked Sequerra. She only made this week as a Lucky Loser having been soundly beaten 6:4 6:0 in her Q3 match-up with Srebotnik. Raymond's no easy beat but Asagoe should be too good today.

Asagoe $1.70 @ Centrebet 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Razzano v Farina-Elia
Round 1 - Eastbourne

Farina-Elia is a competent grass player and probably has the edge in class over her opponent. However Razzano has a good grass record herself going 17/9 and she has the advantage of playing a couple of matches last week at Birmingham while Farina-Elia is first-up on grass. This match will be closer than the odds suggest so there's value with Razzano.

Razzano $2.60 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Medina-Garrigues v Benesova
Round 1 - Hertogenbosch

Median-Garrigues had a very good clay swing so should be in a positive frame of mind. She hasn't had much experience on grass (3/3 record) but she made the SF's here last year and so must have some ability. Benesova had a poor clay season and has a similar grass record to Garrigues but her last win was in 2002. Garrigues usually puts up a good fight and she has plenty of ranking points to defend here so I expect she'll be rather focused.

Medina-Garrigues $1.50 @ Pinnacle 1 unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Notes: Likhovtseva plays today after withdrawing from Birmingham last week with a thigh strain/fatigue. Maleeva plays todays after withdrawing from Birmingham with a shoulder strain.

Bets 196; Won 127; Lost 69
Units Staked: 176.5 units; Won 20.80 units; ROI 11.8%

A rather average evening going 2-2 for a very small loss. I was certainly wrong about Krajicek who flogged Cervanova and about Raymond who flogged Asagoe.

Short of time today.

Ruano-Pascual v Safarova
Round 2 - Hertogenbosch

My computer program rates Ruano-Pascual a 56.1% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value.

Ruano-Pascual $2.30 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Razzano v Molik
Round 2 - Eastbourne


My computer program rates Razzano a 43.4% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. Molik's also still recovering from an ear infection which affects her balance and vision.

Razzano $2.80 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Kirilenko v Safina
Round 2 - Hertogenbosch

My computer program rates Kirilenko a 49.3% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. There's very little between these two on grass.


Kirilenko $2.60 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Koukalova v Schaul
Round 2 - Hertogenbosch


My computer program rates Koukalova a 72.9% chance of winning so I'm taking the perceived value. Koukalova SF here last year - Schaul in woeful form

Koukalova $1.42 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit

Bets 199; Won 128; Lost 71
Units Staked: 179.5 units; Won 19.3 units; ROI 10.8%


A very poor night going 1-2 with no excuses. Not such a good week.
Molik withdrew prior to play to void her match with Razzano.

I'm short on time again.


Koukalova v Chladkova
QF - Hertogenbosch

I rate Koukalova a 63.7% chance of winning - Chladkova got through
second round with a walkover and wasn't particularly impressive in
Round 1

Koukalova $1.63 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)

Pretty skinny overs there Marko.
Suggest you watch and enjoy the game.

Nice overs here!
Did it get up?
Excellent effort if so!

Just realized the even better overs the Krilenko bet.
Did that one get up?

MARCO CONTACT
 

I have a yahoo email address for you. Is this still valid, as I have emails from March & April from you? A couple of overall, not specific WTA queries, that I would like mention to you. Hence they are not really for this forum.

Moeeee - thanks for your thoughts during an ordinary week. Kirilenko lost and Razzano v Molik was void (see earlier post).

The bet on Koukalova was a personal call. The value was rather slim but background info not included in the model swayed my decision.

Waynet - apologies, I hadn't checked the email for a while. It's my secondary address to avoid spam etc. Fire away, I'll get back to you as soon as I can.

My email's woof9898@yahoo.com.au if anybody else has querys.

Thanks.

Bets 200; Won 129; Lost 71
Units Staked: 180.5 units; Won 19.93 units; ROI 11%

Koukalova managed a fairly comfortable win last night.


Koukalova v Shaughnessy
SF Hertogenbosch.

Not for the faint-hearted as this should be close. Shaughnessy's been lucky to progress as two of her three opponents have retired so hard to judge her current form. Prior to this tournament she'd only won consecutive games on two occasions this season so she's had a fairly ordianary year. However Meghann's a decent grass player with a good volley and plenty of experience. Koukalova has the game to win and is very respectable on grass. She's played well this week against reasonable opponents and has shown considerable determination. Having played more matches this week, I rate her a 63.1% chance of winning.

Koukalova $1.69 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

Marco,I understand that you are miles in front,and I'm miles behind.
But $1.69 is 59.2%,so doesn't seem worth betting on.Only a 4% increase.Am I doing something wrong here?

Well, she won, and I guess that's what matters.

Moeee - Your point/concern on the size of the overlay is a good one. In short, I have a sample of about 3200 bets with the perceived overlay (this needs more explanation but will suffice for now). I break these overlays into groups for analytical purposes; 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15% etc etc. The 0-5% group has returned a long term profit so I don't mind the 'skinny' value. I appreciate my sample is rather small but there doesn't appear to be too much variation (I have more than 40000 matches in my database but only have odds for about 3200). Funnily enough the lowest return comes at the higher 40% plus overlays (I could speculate why but there's not enough space).

Thanks for the question.

Bets 201; Won 130; Lost 71
Units Staked: 181 units; Won 20.23 units; ROI 11.2%

Koukalova managed another good win. Her price came in so to keep things fair, I'll record her as $1.60 rather than the $1.69 (half unit).

No bets tonight. Clijsters should win but her odds are too short. No value in the outsider as the bookies margins too tight.

Koukalova v Safarova prices are spot on for mine. Hard to split these two but Koukalova deserves to be a very slight favourite.

Strawberries, cream and rain delays.
 

Picking the winner at Wimbly this year look's like a tough proposition.

In no particular order we have:

Defending Champ Maria Sharapova who has won 2 of the 5 biggest tournaments over the past year. She's also on a 17 match grass winning streak but at the same time has won only one low-ranked title (Birmingham) since thumped by Davenport at Indian Wells.

Davenport, while ranked No. 1 and a past Champion (1999), hasn't won a major title in the past year and hasn't played any grass warm-ups. In fact, she's played very few tournaments since the end of the hardcourt swing.

Then there's Serena Williams whose Wimbly record stands at 20-1 over the past 3 years. However she's only played one match - a first round loss in Rome - since hurting her ankle during the American green clay swing.

Next is Henin-Hardenne who hasn't lost a game since the end of the Hardcourt season. However she's never won Wimbledon in 4 attempts, she hasn't played any grass warm-ups and recently withdrew from Eastbourne on the advice of her doctors. Apparently the virus that kept her out of tennis for so long is still lingering in her system and she was in need of rest (though I've learnt punters oppose Justine at their peril)

Then there's Clijster's who's just won Eastbourne and made the semi's at Wimbledon at her last attempt (though she doesn't have a great history at the tournament). Then there's Mauresmo who just lost in the first round of Eastbourne having said she was there to work hard on her grass game, and the likes of Kuznetsova, Venus Williams (2 times Champion plus 2 times finalist) and the 'nervy' Petrova who all have some claims.

From a betting point of view this looks wide open with some great opportunities against underdone players such as Davenport, the Williams sisters and to some extent Hardenne who are all first-up on grass. The upsets will come - it's just a matter of picking when.

Clijster's and Sharapova are the pick of the bunch at the moment but I don't say that with any real conviction. Plus Clijster's is always mentally vulnerable if she comes up against Henin-Hardenne or Serena (which may happen in semi's).

Notable retirements in matches leading up to Wimbledon include:
Dementieva (retired Eastbourne: Shoulder)
Bartoli (retired Eastbourne: Left foot)
Groenefeld (retired Eastbourne: Thigh)


Some background info can be found at:


http://www.wtatour.com/newsroom/sto...cle_7394_rx.asp (preview)

http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/news...8907456644.html (preview)

http://www.tennisreporters.net/sub_...ers_061805.html (interesting article on Clijsters)

http://msn.foxsports.com/tennis/story/3695184 (interesting article on Williamses)

Wimbledon Monday
 

Wimbledon Round 1

It will pay to shop around as there's quite a bit of variation in prices.

I'll split the First Round into Monday & Tuesday (two seperate posts). There's a lot of games so I'll only hi-light the main points.


MONDAY

Kremer v Spears

Kremer 35/22 on grass - her best surface. Shes in average form but has many appearances at Wimbledon. Spears is also in average form, is 3/6 on grass and has only one other appearance at Wimbledon.

Kremer $1.65 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Obata v Irvin

Obata is 24/19 on grass, has played 4 warm-ups prior to Wimbly and came through Qualies in straight sets. Irvin is 4/10 on grass with 5 previous Round 1 exits at Wimbly. She's also first-up on grass today.

Obata $1.60 @ Will Hill 1 Unit
(and smaller bookies)


Tanasugarn v Sprem

A close match on paper. Tanasugarn 51/28 on grass with 6 fourth round appearances at Wimbly. She's had reasonable lead up form going 5/3 but can be a bit 'up-and-down'. Sprem is 6/4 on grass, has terrible lead up form (one game for a loss) and has many off-court problems which have seen her put in some woeful performances lately.

Tanasugarn $2.10 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit.


Morigami v Mirza

Morigami more experienced on grass with 17/14 record and 3 prior Wimbly appearances. Mirza 1/2 on grass (these games all in past 2 weeks) and has no prior Wimbly appearances. Morigami has slightly better lead up form.

Morigami $2.00 @ Ladbrokes Half Unit
(price also available at a few other bookies)



Washington Frazer

The veteran Frazer has plenty of experience and a better record (22/18). Deserves to be favourite but Washington has very good lead up form and is a good outside chance. Her 15/11 record is respectable.

Washington $2.60 @ Will Hill Half Unit
(price also available at a few other bookies)



Chakvetadze v Jankovic

Neither girl has much experience on grass and both have similar lead up form on grass. Chakvetadze has recent wins over Asagoe, Maleeva and Brandi and is 7/2 over past 2 weeks. Jankovic is 5/2 over past 2 weeks and made final of Birmingham. Should be close - value with outsider.

Chakvetadze $2.48 @ 5Dimes Half Unit


Osterloh v Strycova

Lesser known players but Osterloh is 21/21 on grass with 8 Wimbly appearances (best result = 4th Round). Osterloh's only had 1 warm-up game - a loss. Strycova is a clay specialist - likes it slow - and is first-up on grass. Is 3/3 on grass and her two Wimbly appearances resulted in First Round exits.

Osterloh $2.10 5Dimes Half Unit
(price also available at a few other bookies)

A couple of fun/interesting links for outright markets:


http://news.bbc.co.uk/sol/shared/sp...dictor_mens.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sol/shared/sp...ctor_womens.stm

That John Alexander's a wacko. Can you believe that he actuallt said Samantha Stosur could win Wimbledon??? Seriously, what was he on? I notice, she's just lost in the first round.

A rather ordinary start to Wimbly going 3-4 for the tiniest of gains. Obata losing ruined my chance of a good day.

TUESDAY

Ivanovic v Douchevina
Round 1

Douchevina 9/4 on grass afetr reaching last weeks Eastbourne final. Ivanovic is 0/1 and is first-up on grass. Douchevina can be a bit up-and-down but strange prices - Ivanovic's Junior grass form is nothing special.

Douchevina $2.15 generally available 1 Unit



Brandi v Schiavone
Round 1

Brandi won Surbiton Challenger in warm-ups though her later for was mixed. Solid 40/21 grass record. Schiavone is first-up on grass and while she has a reasonable Wimbledon record, she is only 8/10 on grass.

Brandi $1.83 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit



Hantuchova v Linetskya
Round 1

Hantuchova's not in the best from at the moment having suffered a couple of
unexpected warm-up losses but grass is her best surface. Her 22/14 record includes wins over some quality players while her Wimbledon record is respectable. Linetskya yet another Russian up-and-comer with good credentials but value is with Hantuchova.

Hantuchova $1.71 @ Pinnacle Half unit


Tu v Peer
Round 1

Tu had the better warm-up with 4 good games at Birmingham and is 16/15 on grass. Peer had one warm-up for one loss which is her only WTA appearance on grass. She's a good hardcourt player so may have claims but not as favourite.


Tu $2.20 @ Will Hill Half Unit


Foretz v Chladkova
Round 1

Not much between these two. Foretz underrated - she's 16/12 on grass but hasn't played partcularly well at Wimbly in past. Has quite good lead up form from Birmingham. Chladkova 12/16 on grass with similar Wimbly record to Foretz. Her lead up form mixed. Fairly even match - value with outsider.

Foretz $2.10 Ladbrokes Half Unit


Fujiwara v Bartoli
Round 1
Bartoli, who's been struggling all year with injury, retired yet again at Eastbourne 5 days ago. She's a moderate 7/8 on grass and has very mixed lead up form. Fujiwara has a 21/10 record though there's not mant top players in her wins. She had a solid 5 game warm-up in Birmingham and lists grass a sher favourite surface.

Fujiwara $2.71 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Poutchek v Santangelo
Round 1

Battle of the no-hopers. Both girls coming of clay with Poutchek having slightly better form. Both girls also came through Qualies with Poutchek having slightly better results. Santangelo is 1/5 on grass prior to Wimbly while Poutchek is 3/6.
A slight edge to Poutchek so I'll take outside value.

Poutchek $2.40 @ Pinnacle Half Unit.
(better prices at smaller bookies)

Away from Perth, on the laptop, have to be brief.

Another ordinary day giving me a small .7 unit loss over Round 1.


Tanasugarn v Perry
Round 2

Tanasugarn $1.36 @ SportingOdds 1 Unit


Washington v Sfar
Round 2

Washington $1.31 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Safina v Strycova
Round 2

Safina $1.30 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Arvidsson v Serra-Zanetti
Round 2

Arvidsson $1.50 @ Pinnacle Half Unit.


Vinci v Kremer
Round 2

Vinci $1.50 generally available Half Unit

Poor day yesterday losing .7 units. Still away from
Perth with limited internet so have to be brief.


Martinez v Brandi
Round 2

Martinez $1.61 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Hantuchova v Peer
Round 2

Hantuchova $1.45 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Pennetta v Dulko
Round 2

Pennetta $2.60 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Panova v Bondarenko
Round 2

Panova $2.10 @ Ladbrokes. Half Unit


Granville v Daniilidou
Round 2

Granville $2.83 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

Srebotnik v Cho
Round 2

Srebotnik $1.59 @ Pinnacle Half Unit


Foretz v Ivanovic
Round 2

Foretz $8.51 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

What price Jill Craybas to knock off Serena Williams Round 3(shes plagued with ankle injuries)

A better day picking up 0.94 units. About half a unit down for the tournament.
(Apologies for brief write-ups - still out 'bush')

Jankovic v Myskina
Round 3

Jankovic $1.67 @ generally available 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Maleeva v Serra-Zanetti
Round3

Maleeva $1.30 @ Interwetten 1 Unit


Kuznetsova v Vaidisova
Round 3

Kuznetsova $1.25 @ generally available 1 Unit

Rabbitz - short of time so quickly: You make a very good point. Serena won't win Wimbly and she is struggling. Craybas would have to play the game of her life or Serena retire - both possible but the latter more likely. The only way to get value is to lay Serena on Betfair - prices around $1.07 (there's a lot of people doing same thing).

Iwatched 10 mins of Venus the other day and she actually looked interested ....if either of them (injury free ) put their mind on the job theyre both capable of winnin this tourney but thats not possible so I say if shes interested watch out for Venus...........

i wouldnt want to lay serena,yuck
but i would lay sharapova
do bets stand if a player retires ore are all bets refunded
cheers

depends who you bet with check first......... betfair has a 1 set rule 1 set must be completed Centerbet(Sportodds ) the match must be completed