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-   -   Ratings Challenge (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=7064)

zorro 26th March 2005 10:31 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by zorro
SR5
1 5211-Stratum 3.50
9 x224-Mnemosyne 3.90
8 1112-Fashions Afield 5.00
4 1942-Power Of Destiny 6.20
2 1125-Domesday 7.50

SR6
4 11x1-Xcellent 3.40
2 2221-Eremein 4.10
5 x321-Stella Grande 4.10
8 3x53-King Johny 6.20
1 1634-Outback Prince 9.30

Sorry Sportz I got the horse numbers wrong on race 6

Sportz 26th March 2005 10:50 AM

RAND R5
1 STRATUM (69.0) $2.40
9 MNEMOSYNE (67.0) $4.20
8 FASHIONS AFIELD (65.5) $5.95
2 DOMESDAY (64.0) $8.50
4 POWER OF DESTINY (57.5) $47.60
--------------------
3 THE RHINE (56.5) $59.50

RAND R6
4 XCELLENT (74.0) $2.5
2 EREMEIN (72.5) $3.9
1 OUTBACK PRINCE (69.5) $7.9
5 STELLA GRANDE (66.5) $21.1
8 KING JOHNY (66.0) $25.3
--------------------
3 JYMCAREW (65.5) $28.1

DR RON 26th March 2005 12:00 PM

Race 5

1 stratum
9 mnemosyne
8 fashions afeid
4 power of destiny
2 domesday

5 pendragon

race 6

2 eremein
1 outback prince
4 xcellant
5 stella grande
8 king johny

3 jymcarew

La Mer 26th March 2005 12:24 PM

Race 5:
Stratum
Fashions Afield
Mnemosyne
Domesday
Another Time
Power of Destiny

Race 6:
Eremein
Xcellent
Stella Grande
Jymcarew
Outback Prince
Western Beau

Chrome Prince 26th March 2005 12:33 PM

When this is all over Sportz, it may pay for you to go back and see the difference between backing your top selection straight out and only when the price is over your estimate. It could be an interesting exercise, as you lead the comp at this point. I realise you changed your actual pricing method along the way, but it could still surprise you.

Duritz 26th March 2005 12:44 PM

OK here's mine, for the second to last time. Until the next comp of course!

I've put in 6, just in case of a LSCR.

As can be seen in Race 6 I have 3 equal fourths, we'll take them as they are on the table there, which is to say, racebook order.

Good luck all.

RAN 5 2.35
seln price
1 $3.6 STRATUM
8 $5.2 FASHIONS AFIELD
2 $10.7 DOMESDAY
9 $14.9 MNEMOSYNE-NZ
7 $19.8 EL DE LAGO
11 $20.9 ANOTHER TIME


RAN 6 3.15
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $4.1 EREMEIN
1 1.0 $5.8 OUTBACK PRINCE
4 1.0 $5.8 XCELLENT-NZ
3 3.0 $17.8 JYMCAREW
5 3.0 $17.8 STELLA GRANDE
8 3.0 $17.8 KING JOHNY-NZ

Heavyweight 26th March 2005 01:12 PM

Race 5

1.Stratum $1.60
8.Fashions Afield $3.50
2.Domesday $17.00
9.Mnemosyne $41.00
3.The Rhine $251.00

Then Power of Destiny, Another Time

Race 6

4.Xcellent $1.40
2.Eremein $6.00
5.Stella Grande $21.00
1.Outback Prince $61.00
6.Western Beau $101.00

Then Jymcarew, King Johny, Sly Dog

Still having trouble finding a way to compress the prices to make them realistic.

The Mug, do we assume it's *2.Domesday 3rd* and *3.The Rhine 5th*?

xptdriver 26th March 2005 01:17 PM

Gday all

here are mine

5 RANDWICK
Inglis Sires's Produce Stks (Gr 1)
2yo Group I
8 Fashions Afield (11)
1 Stratum (6)
3 The Rhine (12)
6 Johnny (2)
2 Domesday (8)

6 RANDWICK
David Jones A.J.C Aust Derby (Gr 1)
3yo Group I
4 Xcellent (NZ) (10)
2 Eremein (3)
5 Stella Grande (4)
3 Jymcarew (11)
11 Railings (9)

kiwi 26th March 2005 01:33 PM

RANDWICK 5
1 Stratum $ 2.25
9 Mnemosyne $ 3.50
8 Fashions Afield $ 4.75
2 Domesday $ 11.00
11Another Time $ 15.00


RANDWICK 6
3 JYMCAREW $ 2.75
4 XCELLENT $ 3.00
10 Sly Dog $ 16.25 2 EREMEIN $ 3.75
1 OUTBACK PRINCE $ 9.00

Chrome Prince 26th March 2005 02:00 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heavyweight

Still having trouble finding a way to compress the prices to make them realistic.


Heavyweight, I assume you are adding up the rated points and then dividing each horse's points by the total to get a percentage and then a price.

Try this:

Instead of for example having one horse at 100 and the next at 98 and so on, start from the bottom, the horse with the least points.

Now calculate the difference between scores rather than the scores.

Example:

1.Stratum 100
8.Fashions Afield 98
2.Domesday 95
9.Mnemosyne 94
3.The Rhine 88

Do this:

1.Stratum 12
8.Fashions Afield 10
2.Domesday 7
9.Mnemosyne 6
3.The Rhine 1

So your prices will be compressed better.

This would be the result

1.Stratum $3.00
8.Fashions Afield $3.60
2.Domesday $5.14
9.Mnemosyne $6.00
3.The Rhine $36.00

I've only used hypothetical figures, and not the whole field, but you get the general idea.

If your figures are stil a little off, you can add a small bonus to the top scores, like top ranked x 1.5, 2nd top ranked X 1.4 etc. Play around with it until you get something that resembles a TAB market.


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