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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

michaelg 25th February 2013 03:34 PM

The 10 selections became 10 smiles for a profit of $37.47.

michaelg 26th February 2013 12:38 PM

Today's selections:

Werribee
3/3, 6, 15
5/12, 15

Townsville
4/9, 10
6/10

michaelg 26th February 2013 12:57 PM

There has been a late scratching at Werribee race 5. It is therefore not a qualifying race because there are now less then 9 starters.

TheSchmile 26th February 2013 01:07 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Today's selections:

Werribee
3/3, 6, 15
5/12, 15

Townsville
4/9, 10
6/10

Hiya Michaelg,

Just checking again:

Werribee
3/6,15 came 6th and 5th last start respectively.

michaelg 26th February 2013 03:47 PM

Thanks, TheSchmile,

Your'e right. They are not selections.

I'm not having a good day in identifying the selections.

Rinconpaul 26th February 2013 04:49 PM

Reconfirm the rules please Michael
 
Michael I'm getting confused as to what are your "latest" selection criteria. I have it as:
Omit if horse in top 4 Unitab ratings
Omit if C, D or T in form
Min field 9 horses
Must be $100 or more in Don Scotts rankings
Finished 7th or worse last start
A horse is eligible if having 2nd start if it complies with all other criteria
Omit if horse resuming from spell or second start from spell
Omit if >= 3.0 points in Form column of Don Scotts ratings.

Werribee 5/15 was rated 100 today, the one that WON.
Werribee 6/10 with 96 points could be judged as being in the top 4 Unitab.
Thanks RP

michaelg 26th February 2013 05:19 PM

Hi, RP.

Because of a late scratching Werrbee R5 was not a qualifying race (posted earlier in this thread). And you are right - it never should have been originally listed as a qualifier because of the Unitab filter as detailed by you.

I'll repeat - I'm not having a good day...it's scary. Thankfully people are double-checking the validity of the selections.

I must be more careful...I must be more careful...I must be more careful...

michaelg 26th February 2013 05:43 PM

Against my better judgement I today increased the bets from a $333 liability to $999.

Luckily the 4 selections were beaten for a profit of $22.34.

From tomorrow I'm going to lose my complacency and double-check the selections and also my typing, especially due to the size of my bets.

Mark 26th February 2013 07:35 PM

Risking $3996 to make $22.34 !!!!

I wish you all the best michaelg.

michaelg 26th February 2013 08:27 PM

Thanks for the good wishes, Mark.

I'm now betting a liability of $999, not $3,996.

If from day one (7 Dec) I had bet a liabilitiy of the current $999 the method would be slightly over $13,000 in profit...so I'm hopeful. And it gives me a rush with the high liability.

There's been 2,396 smiles from 2441 selections for a 98% strike rate.


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