OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process?

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- - Is Class The Defining Factor In The Selection Process? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=10296)

Quote:

Originally Posted by gazman

mr ed and t,mr ed how much more time do think dance hero would have taken of that record if it was riden better????????that record has stood a lot of class horse over the years and ikes dream had no chance of beating dance hero i do feel for the jock as if he stood back and took the sit everyone would be jumping all over him.............as for pendragon ive seen boss ride a loy better,but maybe he was told to ride it like that.....cheers .....gaz.........

Gazman, i think i may have you confused. Dance Hero wouldn't have broken the record if he waited, but he may very well have won the race. The hectic pace he and SOL set up is what attributed to the record, so they burned off terrific sectionals but come crunch time there was not much left and the horse, who had the slipstream and had not done any work could storm over the top.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kiwi

Would you share some of the criteria that helped you back the winner.I rated Dance Hero way in front, but unbackable at the odds.

The winner I only rated worth backing on breeding and had it 5 out of 6.Shania Dane must have huge potential to run down DH the way it did

Hi!
The rating's criteria I use are:
CombinedRating (all of the following combined):
Time, Class, Form, Distance, Down_in_Class, Margin, Place%, WIN%, APIRanking.

Shania Dane came second in: Time, Form, Distance, and DownClass,
Came third in: class
Came forth in: Win%, Margin, APIRanking
Came fifth in: Place%
Came in third overall with the rated price of $6.7
The reason it came only third overall is that I give different weighting to each criteria.

I have to point out that my time, class and form ratings are quite different in SOME respects to the conventional ratings.

The down in class relies on MY class ratings so you may come to a different outcome on that one as well.
The Margin is simply the best beaten (or winning) margin of the last three runs.
I only use the last 3 to 5 runs for my ratings, not really interested what the horse has or hasn't done in the distant past.
Incidentally I take no notice of the success on distance indicators coming in the form files, simply because the wins or placings on distance could have happened too far back.
For this I use all the runs of the last two years only, and finishing second or third does not rate as high as the beaten margin.
I use Cyberhorse Zip files.

hey mr ed,i'm not confused and as T said tactics won the race but i''m saying that if beasley had let SOL get away in front and lost the race that way i'm sure he would have needed a police escort to weight in and his name would go down in history as the man who srcewed up...i'm also sure that if they thought any thing would be able to run him down after such hot sectionals they would run the race differently,,,,,thats the great thing about this game for me i would not bet on the race as i thought the price of dance hero was way under for the type of horses he was running against.the only mention i could see on this forum of shaina was from martin friedman and all credit to him...and will(sorry will )
cheers ...gaz............

The Cyberhorse zip files give you more data than i have access to.

When the winner can beat DH 9 wins from 14, Spark Of Life 8 wins fromfrom 14 and Carry on Cutie 3 from 4 and all of these horses with huge potential given the opposition they have beaten, then Shania Dane must have untapped riches ahead, or will it fade into obscurity as the value of the prize money increases,or were the above preparing to hook bigger fish in the Group races and not being flogged to win a lesser race.:)

Quote:

Originally Posted by kiwi

then Shania Dane must have untapped riches ahead, or will it fade into obscurity as the value of the prize money increases,or were the above preparing to hook bigger fish in the Group races and not being flogged to win a lesser race.:)

You are perfectly right regarding upcoming races and the outcomes.

Cheers

My initial form study reveals there are a number of potential profit-making runners tomorrow which warrant closer scrutiny:
SR3 5 Mystery City
SR5 2 Loftily
SR6 1 Court's In Session(been waiting for this one)
SR6 7 Dance Hero
SR610Dizelle
SR9 7 Lotteria
In race 4, Snitzel and Mr Owl remain under notice. As does Media in race 7, Prince Frederick(race 8) and Danni Martine in the last.
MR2 3 Uprize
MR2 7 Edgy Affair
MR6 8 Perlin, if he is forward enough
MR6 Lad Of The Manor
All are certainly class horses so we will see how they go. I've still got much more form analysis ahead of me yet so c u l8r.
What do think gaz?

Cheers.

Jump on Court's in Session and Regal Roller.... one out in the exotics....

Defining factor in the Selection Process?

Class . What a great discusion. One of the great mystifying variables that attracts so many to the track .Persoanlly , i think 'class' best summed up by the legendary American punter Pittsburgh Phil who was once quoted as saying “Show me the man who can 'class' horses correctly and I will show you the man who can win all the money he wants”. For those that have not heard of Phil, grab his memoirs.A great read.

John

many hours left to work

cum''on without cum''on within when quinn the jockey gets there meida will win...
will post saturday xanadu but i do like the look of that story...........
cheers ........gaz...............

hey xanadu and all

i hope you liked my little riff to that song(that was dr merlot)
i do like meida today and took the fixed odds just has to run up to last run to be a great show many good horse today ,pitty about melbournes rain so i will stay away from that put all my bets on and i'm going to catch some dhue fish,the best fish in the world to eat its $50 kg at freo at moment and last week i cought a 18kg sucker if you ever come up to mid west wa get in touch and i'll look after you
..........cheers ........gaz..............
regal,,,,,,,,,dance.......oh okla.........lotty