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-   -   Fav betting with a twist (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12862)

leroy 26th March 2006 08:27 AM

Hi Guys.
I've been doing place betting on favs myself for the last 3 weeks.
based on the pp fav only, with a few simple filters.
been backing them until 1 unit up or 2 down each day.
also been following all my selections too.
Stopping at 1 unit up =41/47(87.23%).Profit =+15.40 for 3 weeks(MON-FRI)
=32.77% ROI, AVE DIV $1.52
All selections=57/73(78.08%).Profit=+18 units, =24.66%ROI, AVE DIV $1.60.
Hopefully it will keep working.
Cheers
Leroy

wesmip1 26th March 2006 08:36 AM

Congrats leroy,

Thats a nice angle to focus on and hopefully it will continue.

Good Luck

manygeese 26th March 2006 08:55 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by KennyVictor
Not quite sure what your doing with the bets there manygeese. Perhaps you could show how much you would bet on the first 20 races starting at the start of your sequence of favorites there.
KV


I doubt if it works. If it did you would beat a casino. And I was liquored last night. But say a base bet of 10.00 and a bank of $200.00

1.60 - - 2.60 - 3.10 - - - - 2.60 - - 2.80 - - 2.40 2.80 - - - 2.50 - 4.10 1.60 - 3.70 - 2.70 4.80 - 3.40 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.40 2.30 - - 2.30 2.90 2.80 - 2.40 - 1.60 3.20 - 3.00 2.80 -- 2.40 2.00 - 2.00 1.80 1.80 2.40 - - - - 2.60 - 1.90 1.70 - - - - - 1.60 1.60 - 2.10 2.30 - - 2.60 - - -


16.00 = + 6 = 206
- = -20 = 186
- = -10 = 176
2.60 = +16 = 192
- = -20 = 172
3.10 = +21 = 193
- = -20 = 173
-= -10 = 163
-= -10 = 153
- = -10 =143
2.60 = +16 = 159
- = -20 = 139
- = -10 =129
2.80 = + 18 = 147
- = -20 = 127
-= -10 =117
2.40 = + 14 = 131
2.80 = +36 = 167 (first two in a row strike)
- no bet = 167
- = -10 =157
- = -10 = 147
2.50 = +15 = 162
- = -20 = 142
4.10 = + 31 = 173
1.60 = +12 = 185 (second two strike in a row)
- no bet = 185
3.70 = + 27 = 212
- = -20 = 192
2.70 = + 17 = 209
4.80 = + = +285 (third two strike in a row)
- no bet = 285
3.40 = + 24 = 309
- = -20 =289
1 = -10 = 279
13 more losses = 149
2.40 = + 14 = 163
2.30 = + 26 = 189
- = no bet = 189
- = -10 = 179
2.30 = + 13 = 192
2.90 = + 38 = 230
2.80 = no bet = 230
- = -10 = 220


etc

Think it is just the same as if you only bet the favourite in a race after one where the favourite has just won. That shows a profit of 6.80 here where every race bet is 1.80 down.

Why I don't think it works is you would just back black after black at the casino and be able to win. Never toss that form guide away.

manygeese 26th March 2006 09:02 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
[Manygeese has yet another idea. doubling up after each bet until a winner is stuck[?] .....


Wasn't the idea. Take full responsibility for your misunderstanding.

crash 26th March 2006 02:33 PM

Is that so? Your first post obviously was the one I was referring too and it was not clear to me nor Kenny, the poster after it. Clear as mud I'm afraid and very easy to misinterpret. I'm not taking responsibility for a poorly expressed idea.

marcus25 26th March 2006 02:56 PM

Trivia for fav followers
 
Here is a bit of trivia that mercifully will be forgotten as soon as it's read.
Stony Creek racetrack on race No 2 returns a profit on the fav. under any track condition. Bit distorted because more races on good than on wet tracks.

Races 45
Wins 20
Return $54.3
Good luck

KennyVictor 26th March 2006 03:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by manygeese
Wasn't the idea. Take full responsibility for your misunderstanding.
It's never happened before... so if you can get him to do that I'd say forget the punt, you've got a career ahead of you in public relations. :)

manygeese 26th March 2006 03:51 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
Is that so? Your first post obviously was the one I was referring too and it was not clear to me nor Kenny, the poster after it. Clear as mud I'm afraid and very easy to misinterpret. I'm not taking responsibility for a poorly expressed idea.



For the second time I take full responsibilty for your misunderstanding. You didn't understand what was put and it wasn't your fault. It was mine.

And then it happened again.

manygeese 26th March 2006 03:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by KennyVictor
It's never happened before... so if you can get him to do that I'd say forget the punt, you've got a career ahead of you in public relations. :)



It was my fault. Had been ummm, drinking.

KennyVictor 26th March 2006 04:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by manygeese
For the second time I take full responsibilty for your misunderstanding. You didn't understand what was put and it wasn't your fault. It was mine.

And then it happened again.
You spineless, forlock tugging, knee bending, nose scraping, apologetic syophant!!! This forum hasn't got where it is today by people admitting they're wrong you know.
But then, I suppose a change is as good as a holiday so I take it all back.


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