Saturday 14 November 2009
 

These have some chance at odds today:
RICCARTON
R3 no13 Diamond Skeem
R6 no11 Go For Gold
R7 no15 Ginella no17 Groove Assassin
R8 no9 Outrage
R9 no10 Teakau Rose no17 Our Tigress no18 Sandie
R10 no13 Sand Toyz
TAURANGA
R6 no14 Street Party
R7 no11 Pinaffero no13 She Rules
R10 no6 Slavadaad
SANDOWN
R4 no3 Sheeznodoubt
R5 no8 Cocoa TycoonR7 no10 Miss Darcey
ROSEHILL
R3 no9 Letchworth
R4 no2 Centover
R5 no8 Ollie Vollie
R6 no8 Zazabeau
EAGLE FARM
R6 no10 Naniwa
R7 no9 Kentish Rose
R8 no14 Yamarjie
MORPHETTVILLE
R7 no10 Little Adam no13 Chanceux
R8 no7 St Fraser
ASCOT
R1 no 10 It's A Star
R3 no6 Rock My Pago
R4 no13 Underline
R6 no5 Dante's Banquet no11 Hawkeye Mort
R7 no 18 Delago's Choice (32 bets)

UPDATE
 

I think it's pretty clear that place betting following this type of horse is not a winning proposition so I'll stop updating place bets.
Results for 14 November 2009
BETS = 32
OUTLAY = $32
RETURN = $29.5 (St Fraser $28.5 Delago's Choice $1 [scratched])

PROGRESSIVE
BETS = 517
OUTLAY = $517
RETURN = $695

Lots of terrible runs, especially in NZ where I thought some of the horses selected had reasonable chances. With that in mind it was good to finish just $2.5 behind on the day.
I wonder if one of the corporate bookies has considered offering one quarter the odds of the best tote price for the place.

TThese have shown a little and have rough hopes today:
BALLARAT
R8 no6 Ladies In Luck
GOSFORD
R6 no11 Phonetics
R7 no11 All Time Champion

There's a bit of depth in some of the fields today. Hopefully a few of these will show up.
ASCOT
R3 no6 Cassius Grey
R7 no8 Colour Correct no18 Coconut Grove
MELBOURNE
R6 no14 Bashful Girl
PUKEKOE
R5 no7 Wida's Dream no19 Keepolaria
R6 no16 Scarlet Vanhara
R8 no13 Solid Billing no16 Fiorano
R10 no16 Whiritoa Bay
HASTINGS
R9 no14 Suma of India
BRISBANE
R4 no8 My Counsel
R6 no5 Red Story
R7 no12 Frosty no13 Regal Castanea
SYDNEY
R2 no5 Bright Mind
R3 no10 Ramsay's Curse
R5 no4 Our Cannavaro no13 Walpersdorf (19 bets)

UPDATE
RESULTS 17 and 21 November
BETS = 22 OUTLAY = $22 RETURN = $20.9 (Bashful Girl $19.9, Coconut Grove $1 [Scratched] )
PROGRESSIVE
BETS = 539 OUTLAY = $539 RETURN = $715.9


Place betting may be a goer if you're getting best of 3 totes. Sometimes it's a nice consolation to get a big place div. after just being nutted. I suppose it depends on your temperament. On those really bad days it means double the outlay for a meagre return. A bit of work would pull the place up to about level pegging I think.

Saturday 28 November 2009
 

Hope a few of these can shape up today. The good ones are back in their stables now until autumn.
ELLERSLIE
R9 no10 Slavadaad
WANGANUI
R5 no5 Adjective no12 Ricky Bobby
R10 no7 Cindylotz
R11 no18 Lago Rider
RANDWICK
R7 no7 Al Sahra
R8 no8 Centover no13 Comet Watch
ADELAIDE
R6 no12 Xaieta
MELBOURNE
R5 no4 De Mars no9 De Arias no14 Cabazon
ASCOT
R6 no8 Ma Ma Machine no11 Follow The Road
BRISBANE
R1 no6 River Street
R4 no3 Raincoat no6 La Bella Luisa
R5 no16 Long Road To Glory
R6 no3 Kneel & Raise
R7 no6 Celestafy no16 Fuhrmatic
R8 no9 Deacon (22 bets)

Nov 28 Update and Moonee Valley Selections
 

BETS = 22

Outlay = $22
Return = $2 (Races 10 and 11 Wanganui abandoned)
Progressive

Outlay = $561
Return = $715.9

Fuhrmatic just missed. Paying $65 NSW for win.

These may get a bit of betting silver for Saturday:

MOONEE VALLEY Friday 4 December 2009
R2 no1 Catside
R3 no8 Tully Ranee
R4 no4 Agar
R6 no7 Testa Jesta
R7 no5 Hip Hop Dancer no13 Sesotho
R8 no16 Sherpa
MUDGEE
R8 no6 Canterdown no10 Istimaid no14 Smarting (10 bets)

Saturday 5 December 2009
 

UPDATE FRIDAY
10 bets Outlay $10
Return = $3 (Istimaid, Smarting and Sherpa scratched)

PROGRESSIVE
Bets = 571 Outlay = $571 Return = $718.9

BETS Saturday 5 December 2009
SYDNEY
R1 no10 Miss Veronica
R2 no8 Bold Contact
R4 no7 Buttido
R6 no10 Love & Kisses
R7 no9 Jordan Valley no13 Daad's Overtime
MELBOURNE
R1 no1 Baltic Spirit
R3 no10 Go For Home
R5 no8 Arctic Light
R6 no8 Wild One no19 Ready To Please
R7 no3 Grand Destiny no10 The Red Emperor no11 Okuma
R8 no11 Awimoweh

BRISBANE
R3 no11 Warbriks
R4 no13 Crystal Honour no14 Proofreader
R5 no15 Viva Heart no18 Tucson
R6 no9 Our Moscato no13 Sequaboom no19 Lady Selene
R7 no6 Soiled no15 Regal Castanea
R8 no16 Topkapi Palace no22 Blazing Hearts
ADELAIDE
R1 no3 Trust In Magic
R2 no5 Regalina
R3 no3 Raikonnen
R6 no7 Archalot no12 Club Royale no13 Dashing Doll
R7 no1 Honourable Kind
R8 no6 Tulavar (34 bets)

sorry mate ive backed this one so its no hope....lol

He ran ordinarily Horse Whisperer. Two preparations back he was running brilliantly and the hope was that he could dredge up some of that form early in a preparation. Wasn't to be. The one that really made me sick was Ready To Please who was in front a stride past the post. Sportsbet had him at 100/1 so at those odds, a definite each-way bet. I'd say any of these at 34/1 plus could probably be backed each way. Tote pays a long way unders on the place and I'm not sure why. Looking at it mathematically, shouldn't place odds work out at one third of the win div? Can anyone explain why it isn't so? I could be missing something really obvious here.