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-   -   A Theory ... (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21958)

The Ocho 25th July 2011 10:11 AM

I'm not sure what markets you are doing this on 4legs but if it is the Aussie markets then 120 seconds won't give you too much except maybe on a Saturday as the markets simply don't form properly until after that time.

4legs 25th July 2011 04:14 PM

Thanks Ocho.

Starting tomorrow I will take a snapshot at 120, 90, 60, 30 & 10 seconds before close using the last traded priced and will rank them according to their price at each snapshop. I will also record the Total Matched.

4legs 27th July 2011 08:14 PM

Ok - much more volatility now - will record until the end of the month and then select some trends and then follow them for August. I will also post some data on liquidity at the various snapshops ... Fred

The Ocho 31st July 2011 11:25 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan

Av stat is
30% 1st Fav
20% 2nd Fav
15% 3rd fav.

Hi Bhagwan. Regarding the stats above, are they standard for all Aus racing?
Do you happen to have the average dividends that would accompany those stats?

4legs 4th August 2011 08:06 PM

Thred Wrap Up
 
End Result: My theory did not hold up as I expected, so I am discontinuing the thread and my tracking.

I would not believe that after only 1 month's tracking, you could get so much data in relation to FIRMING and DRIFTING horses. I am sure it is enough to fill at least 1 book when you take it all the various amounts, times, situations and try and quantify!

For me, I find it to large a subject to try and summarise, and also, as with stats, one could easily slant them to suites one persuasion, which was not my aim.

However if I had to list one finding, the one thing that did come through it all was LAYING showed more potential than BACKING - so maybe therein lies a clue!

Good Punting ... Fred

Bhagwan 4th August 2011 10:29 PM

They are all favs as they are .

No price ranges.

Each price range will have a different win percentage.

Example.
Odds on shots win approx 55%

4.60+ Favs win approx 20%

If you are going to chase Favs , its usually best to go for 3.00+ shots

4legs 7th August 2011 06:02 PM

Thanks Bhagwan. For me it seemed like a good idea at the time, but have decided it is not the go for me, so this month I am having a go at laying.

Even though I will be betting it will still be an experimental month so I will see how I go by the end of the month.

My Laying will be nothing ground breaking and will be based on ideas and comments from this form.

Fred


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