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-   -   Lay Outsider System (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23710)

michaelg 8th April 2012 08:37 PM

Thanks, L.G.

It's not too difficult to make a mistake, I've done so a few times with the method (and other things) by not identifying selections, and so far they've all been smiles, but we're all humans and we all make mistakes. And try as hard as we might, we will continue to to do so...can be a worry.

In spite of today's two accidents I still had a good day with laying the other selections.

Lord Greystoke 8th April 2012 09:08 PM

Ps I also noticed that one of your selected races yesterday(Caulfield?) produced mostly long shots into the frame and i wondered why this race could be so different to others.

Took me a little time but then I noticed the difference(compared to the other races you were laying) ... it was riddled with 4+ FU's if my memory serves me correct?

Wondered then if perhaps this is the kind of race that will throw up far too many surprises for one's peace of mind when laying at such long odds?

LG

PSS Is your place system still paying dividends?

michaelg 8th April 2012 09:30 PM

I have looked at races where there are quite a few resumers but could find nothing consistent with laying and also betting. I think someone on this forum also investigated it but from what I remember it fizzled out.

My Place system has lost over the past two days, but not too much of a loss. It is showing a current POT of 18% for a 73% strike rate. Quite a few losers have run fourth so I'm hopeful. It's still early days.

Bhagwan 9th April 2012 02:00 AM

Well done Michael.

Can I ask what you do if there is 2+ qualifiers

michaelg 9th April 2012 06:33 AM

Hi, Bhagwan.

There can only be one qualifier because of the rules. It's still early days with only 67 selections. I had thought of revealing the rules but decided to wait a little longer which is fortunate because it has gone into a bit of a slump. Hopefully its only a temporary one.

michaelg 9th April 2012 11:47 AM

Today's selections are (I've double-checked none are resuming),

Eagle Farm
4/7
5/16
6/2
8/16

Randwick
4/10
5/2
6/12

Caulfield
1/1
4/10

Oakbank
1/2
2/9
3/5
5/10
6/9
7/10

Muswellbrook
2/14
3/14

Devenport
4/8
6/5
7/10

Pinjarra
5/5
6/9


Seeing that there is some interest in the Place method I'll list today's selections and hope they go better than they did over the last few days:

Devenport
2/14

Eagle Farm
6/8

Oakbank
6/7

Pinjarra
1/11
3/9

michaelg 9th April 2012 06:09 PM

Another terrible day. There were 2 accidents from the 21 selections.

Unfortunately I made another error, as I did yesterday. I don't lay Hurdles because there aren't enough of these races to gauge an accurate-enough market, and I failed to notice Oakbank 6/9 was one.

Because of the two errors over the past two days the method is now break-even. The test period had no accidents, and including that period the method is still in profit, so I've just got to be very careful from now.

michaelg 10th April 2012 11:33 AM

Today's selections are:

Townsville
4/9
5/6
6/13

Grafton
5/11
7/9
8/14

Wodonga
6/7
7/6

Cessnock
1/2
3/7
7/4

michaelg 11th April 2012 11:46 AM

There was another accident yesterday, however the method is still in front.

I'm going to change the selection process because some of them are fancied in the market, and consequently these smiles are quite profitable.

I've been looking at the top selection in the neurals (default/factory) settings, and use one filter.

Over the past three days there have been 28 smiles from 29 selections. About half of them started at single odds, so the results have been quite acceptable.

I'll give it a go today and hope the success continues.

Ascot
2/1 (currently odds-on with Betfair)
6/1

Balaklava
2/3

Bendigo
1/12
6/13
8/7

Dombeen
3/8
4/6
6/6

Goulburn
2/12
3/2
8/3

michaelg 11th April 2012 06:00 PM

Not a bad day. In spite of two accidents, the result from the remaining 10 smiles was an overall profit of $8.00.


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