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- - Profiting from the Crowd (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23914)

Crowd Ratings July 14th

Belmont to follow.

MORP Race 3
1 100 $4.00
2 64 $36.30
3 --- ---
4 97 $4.30
5 99 $4.10
6 81 $7.50
7 81 $7.50
8 --- ---
9 69 $17.00
10 60 $392.10
11 --- ---
12 --- ---
13 66 $25.00

MORP Race 5
1 --- ---
2 100 $3.50
3 86 $5.40
4 78 $7.70
5 74 $9.90
6 98 $3.70
7 78 $7.70
8 78 $7.70
9 67 $19.20
10 78 $7.70
11 64 $32.20
12 60 $348.00

MORP Race 6
1 69 $14.00
2 --- ---
3 72 $10.60
4 84 $5.40
5 93 $4.00
6 --- ---
7 --- ---
8 100 $3.30
9 81 $6.20
10 60 $323.50

MORP Race 7
1 88 $5.10
2 71 $12.60
3 89 $4.90
4 100 $3.60
5 79 $7.40
6 86 $5.50
7 75 $9.30
8 --- ---
9 79 $7.40
10 78 $7.80
11 72 $11.60
12 78 $7.80
13 66 $22.50
14 60 $352.90

MORP Race 8
1 100 $2.60
2 --- ---
3 --- ---
4 79 $5.40
5 71 $9.10
6 77 $6.00
7 62 $43.20
8 60 $254.90
9 74 $7.20
10 72 $8.40

Crowd Ratings July 14th

BLMT Race 3
1 91 $5.30
2 80 $8.20
3 91 $5.30
4 100 $4.10
5 81 $7.80
6 85 $6.60
7 83 $7.10
8 70 $16.00
9 60 $409.30
10 84 $6.80
11 61 $118.60
12 98 $4.30

BLMT Race 4
1 --- ---
2 95 $4.50
3 62 $66.50
4 64 $36.30
5 --- ---
6 75 $10.40
7 60 $392.10
8 98 $4.20
9 84 $6.60
10 100 $4.00
11 80 $7.80
12 81 $7.50
13 68 $19.00

BLMT Race 5
1 82 $6.20
2 75 $9.10
3 79 $7.20
4 100 $3.50
5 82 $6.20
6 85 $5.50
7 77 $8.00
8 76 $8.50
9 84 $5.70
10 --- ---
11 87 $5.10
12 60 $343.10
13 --- ---
14 67 $18.90
15 69 $14.90

BLMT Race 6
1 --- ---
2 98 $4.60
3 96 $4.80
4 91 $5.60
5 85 $6.90
6 88 $6.20
7 88 $6.20
8 100 $4.30
9 80 $8.60
10 64 $39.70
11 73 $13.10
12 66 $27.30
13 79 $9.00
14 60 $428.90
15 69 $18.60
16 75 $11.40

BLMT Race 7
1 84 $7.50
2 73 $13.70
3 100 $4.50
4 100 $4.50
5 83 $7.80
6 98 $4.80
7 98 $4.80
8 68 $21.80
9 85 $7.20
10 62 $76.00
11 60 $448.50
12 61 $130.00
13 65 $33.80
14 78 $9.90
15 66 $28.60
16 81 $8.60

BLMT Race 8
1 79 $7.00
2 89 $4.60
3 100 $3.40
4 68 $16.20
5 64 $30.90
6 72 $11.00
7 78 $7.40
8 67 $18.40
9 61 $96.60
10 74 $9.40
11 67 $18.40
12 60 $333.30
13 78 $7.40
14 88 $4.80
15 66 $21.20
16 63 $39.90

Results July 14th

Not a bad day with one of the top five winning in 22 of the 27 (81.5%) assessed races. Pretty close to the market average. A nice overlay or two to be had also. :)

The accumulative results for the day follow.

1) 7 from 27 (26%)
2) 13 from 27 (48%)
3) 18 from 27 (67%)
4) 22 from 27 (81%)
5) 22 from 27 (81%)

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngryPixie

Not a bad day with one of the top five winning in 22 of the 27 (81.5%) assessed races. Pretty close to the market average.

A very interesting result - where did you get the market average from if you don't mind me asking?

Cheers LG

LG

Think it's fairly common knowledge amongst punters that the first five in the market win between 80-85% of races. You can work it out pretty easily in Excel. If we assume that the first favourite wins 30% of races then if we put 5thFAV_A.jpg into Excel, we should get 5thFAV_B.jpg. You can extend this on as you like.

Very helpful Pixie.

A brush up on basic prob and Excel.

Ta mate, LG

All races from 1/1/2011 to 30/6/2012
Races: 24,306
Won by first 5: 20,037
Percentage: 82.44%

Morning Chrome.

Would that be BF SP?

LG

No, that's Tote rankings.

Cumulative Results to July 14th

I've just quickly done this on a sheet of paper but these are the cumulative results from April 25th to July 14th. I'm leaving out the July 11th midweek as they confuse things a bit.

The accumulative results so far:

1) 28 from 91 (31%)
2) 39 from 91 (43%)
3) 57 from 91 (63%)
4) 67 from 91 (74%)
5) 71 from 91 (78%)

Interestingly close to Excel numbers above. We'll see if we can get a couple of hundred results together.