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-   -   The Paretto Principle (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24511)

Barny 5th July 2012 05:22 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
"price movements which reflect what we know about past events," ~ Which Way tho ??

LG, care to comment, you didn't answer my question.

beton 5th July 2012 05:24 PM

Lets look at an everyday example. Fred left school and he left with an academic record showing that he past his HSC. He went on to become an apprentice and the a qualified carpenter. Work dries up in the firm he has worked for since starting as an apprentice. So armed with his historical data HSC, Trade Certificate and reference) he shooffs off to a job interview. Against ten other applicants with exactly the same historical data. Who wins the job? Who is the most eager? who is the most desperate? Or who has more present data. Fred has for the last 5 years been studying for his Builder' Registration which sits next week, he is also a computor nerd and capable in excel and autocad and many estimating packages. His past historical data got him the inerview but his unherald present data got him the future job.

The future must be the past transitioning though the present and the more present in the equation the closer the result. Beton

jose 5th July 2012 05:28 PM

You are obviously a tradey Beton.

Barny 5th July 2012 05:29 PM

I guess the most current pieces of info are held by the vet and the stable ..... blood counts and the wellness of the horse on the day. Not particularly relevant to anyone else really.

jose 5th July 2012 05:41 PM

Exactly Barny.
They are probably the most important pieces of the puzzle too.

beton 5th July 2012 05:43 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Thanks for the clarity, Beton.
Mostly agree with you - especially your final point.

Further points to consider might be...

1. Are we all looking at the same historical data - readily available or otherwise?

2. There will be many different interpretations/applications of that data

3. Even with similar interpretation, most will not apply selection logic based on historical data in the same way or consistently over a period of time

4. There are also different markets(not just the one for 'mug money'), intepretations of market movements and diff time-snapshots to consider


Cheers LG


LG
With computors we are all looking at the same data.
Everybody has a different view of the data. But most learnt at school 1+1=2, so the result of the data is consistent. People read the same favorite as a result. To get 1+1=3 you have to stark raving stupid or very astute. And if you are very astute, you don't want to tell anyone out of fear of being recognized as the former.
Everybody is looking for a different result but 1+1 will always =2 (and money out the pocket) and to get 2+ you need more than the original data.
As for the markets and market movements, Unless you know the origin of the money - whether it is smart money or mug money or bookies hedging their book, it is hard to be of value other than more shorteners win than drifters. Beton

Lord Greystoke 5th July 2012 05:44 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
LG, care to comment, you didn't answer my question.

Would be all price movements Barny.
But especially those at open and just before jump.

LG

beton 5th July 2012 05:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by jose
You are obviously a tradey Beton.

Down and dirty everyday. Nobody said that you would end up with a body to prove it.

garyf 5th July 2012 06:07 PM

Have been waiting for someone to mention this,
But haven't heard it on any "RECENT POSTS"

The most important person who will tell you how the,
Horse is doing on a daily basis is "the trackwork rider"

Having owned a horse myself with three other mates,
And was successfull in town Flemington-Valley our,
Trainer Robbie Laing a top bloke and trainer would,
In those days ride the horse himself or get his trackwork,
Riders to help out.

It was their judgement we listened to as to how the horse was going.
Obviously as did the trainer.

Who rides Black Cav in trackwork keeps her up to the mark,
Tells Moody how she feels etc gives her enough work so,
As not to go over the top and peak on the day.

How often do you here a trainer say i might have been a,
Bit light on her this week or another comment i will put,
A bit more work into her this week.

That's why trackmen at each metro track get out there,
At 5.00 am in the morning to watch and clock how horses work.

This is where it all starts just watch some of the sky channels,
Who interview the trainers straight after trackwork the 1st,
Thing you see is either them or their foreman in earnest discussion,
With the jockey.

We were often told by Robbie she pulled up a bit light or a bit (Shinny)
After working, or she will need another run as we have set her for,
Race x in 2 weeks so we want her to peak then.

This is not me thinking about this it's what i have experienced 1st hand.

I am just surprised nobody has mentioned in detail.

Cheers.

jose 5th July 2012 06:15 PM

Same here Beton. Cheers.


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