Sounds like what you call 3 blondes in a flying pan

Over easy!

I love your confidence Aussie but can you tell me why you are certain that laying longshots will end in tears.

statements 1 & 2 had to be joined.
laying long shots wont end in tears if you have an edge - but it will unless you have an edge.

Without an edge as i said a person may be able to put it off for a while laying 33-1 to 100-1 long shots as they will win infrequently - but eventually they will be caught.

I see. I must have an edge altho I'm not sure what it is.

Speaking of edges, can someone please remind me of...

1. the minimum sample of races to measure it realistically eg 150?
2. how to measure it (POT?) and confirm it's valid eg chi test(XL ss formula?), lopsided bell curve of 1/odds for all winners etc ?
3. how to convert the edge into a suitable staking plan (% of bank?)

Cheers LG

PS sure I have seen the answer to these Qs at some point but all in one place... not so sure!

These are 4 legged horses we're talking about, running around various tracks, at various stages of fitness, with varying levels of ability, where luck plays it's part and the only thing that's consistent is it's randomness ?? Looks like a mathematical formula for the launch of a space shuttle ..... It's a joke, right ??

Lord have a read of the thread "Very Serious Question" around 13th March 2011.

It might be a start to what you are looking for

Lord,

I've recently started looking at Kelly Critereon for staking based on my 'edge' for overlay's. Not sure if others have used it before or have something against it but seems like a logical way of staking and I read in an Alan Woods article that it was how his computer betting company did their staking. I also know its used quite frequently by sports bettors on american sports once they've built a model that has a consistent edge.

Thanks for the input, gents. Much appreciated.

Cheers LG