Doc's Donkeys - Initial Selections
 

Friday December 21
MASHKOOR CANTERBURY R3 No.4 (1100m) (First Run)

Saturday December 22
TEXAN ASCOT R4 No.2 (1000m) (First Run)
SIGNIFIED DOOMBEN R6 No.6 (1110m) (2nd Run)
BARON DOURO FLEMINGTON R8 No.1 (1200m) (First Run)
MADAM NASH WARWICK FARM R2 No.1 (1400m) (2nd Run)
ART THOU READY WARWICK FARM R4 No.8 (1300m) (2nd Run)
RACING HEART WARWICK FARM R6 No.16 (1600m) (2nd Run)

Just another thought in relaton to this horse following.

Particular horses have a winning distance. Without going into the debate on this as it can be quite difficult - try to identify which distance the horse is going to win.

If the distance is between 1000 to 1400m They can peak from 1st up through to 4th

Then you have 1400m to 1800m. Usually they won't win in the 1st up so maybe start following from 2rd run to 5th run.

Generally stayers over 1800m Only peak between 3rd to 6th run in.


This can be debated and played around with as depending on the grade of the runs etc..

Hi Vortech,
One could cut the handicapping time by concentrating on the Market order (say Top 5 or 6 in the betting order.)

Cheers and Merry Xmas.

I do remember a stat

Days after a spell of 90 days+ (1st up record)

Races up to 1300m - approx 15% Win
Races over 1300m - approx 3% Win

Don't have my database with me so could need verification.
Horses don't usually win the longer distance races 1st up vs the shorter distances.

The best strike rate I believe was

1000m - 1600m = 3rd up horses around 21%
1600 m to 1800m = 5th up horses around 17%
1800 m + 6th up horses with around 18%.

If someone has time they could calculate this with detail.
Barny probably has all the figures

Cheers

Earlier this week I started tracking a system similar to the one described in here along with using my ratings for a backing method and laying method.

As I get more results i'll start posting some details but so far all 3 seem to be doing ok, the lay method and what i've dubbed the 'improver' method (similar to this thread) are doing the best so far but have limited data.

I'll start a new thread with my own details at an appropriate time but i'm definitely following this thread with interest.

Doc's Donkeys - Weekend Update
 

Results
Friday December 21
MASHKOOR CANTERBURY R3 No.4 - Bet 4.6 @ 3.2 - 3rd

Saturday December 22
TEXAN ASCOT R4 No.2 - Bet 6.3 @ 2.6 - 2nd
SIGNIFIED DOOMBEN R6 No.6 - Bet 0.8 @ 16 - np
BARON DOURO FLEMINGTON R8 No.1 - Bet 1.6 @ 7.5 - np
MADAM NASH WARWICK FARM R2 No.1 - Bet 0.5 @ 61- np
ART THOU READY WARWICK FARM R4 No.8 - Bet 0.6 @ 21- np
RACING HEART WARWICK FARM R6 No.16 - Bet 0.5 @ 151- np



Hall Of Fame
The Cleaner 10/10.2/10.2


Hall of Shame
Nil

Current Horses
Gran Torino 10/-3.9 (13.9)
Anelene 10 (10)
Art Thou Ready 10/-2/-0.6 (12.6)
Carmine King 10/-2/-4.5 (16.5)
Tariana 10/-1.9 (11.9)
Signified 10/-1.4/-0.8 (12.2)
Racing Heart 10/-0.5/-0.5 (11)
Madam Nash 10/-1/-0.5 (11.5)
Number One Gun 10/-1.7 (11.7)
Hurdy Gurdy Man 10/-0.5 (10.5)
Dayita 10/-1.9 (11.9)
Shamrock Slipper 10/-1.3 (11.3)
Mashkoor 10/-4.6 (14.6)
Texan 10/-6.3 (16.3)
Baron Douro 10/-1.6 (11.6)

I will post the boxing day update tomorrow night

Doc's Donkeys - Boxing Day
 

December 26
TARIANA CAULFIELD R5 No.3 (1200m) - Bet $5.4 @ $3.2
ROSES IN THE GLEN CAULFIELD R6 No.13 (1200m) - Bet $1.6 @ $7.5
MY EX MATE MORPHETTVILLE R6 No.6 (1100m) - (No Price Up)
FLYING BAY ROSEHILL R5 No.2 (1200m) - Bet $1.3 @ $9

Cheers

Doc

Doc's Donkeys - Boxing Day Update
 

Results
Wednesday December 26
TARIANA CAULFIELD R5 No.3 (1200m) - Bet $5.4 @ $3.2 - WON
ROSES IN THE GLEN CAULFIELD R6 No.13 (1200m) - Bet $1.6 @ $7.5 - np
MY EX MATE MORPHETTVILLE R6 No.6 (1100m) - Bet $0.5 @ $21 - np
FLYING BAY ROSEHILL R5 No.2 (1200m) - Bet $1.3 @ $9 - np


Hall Of Fame
The Cleaner 10/10.2/(10.2)
Tariana 10/-1.9/13.5/(11.6)


Hall of Shame
Nil

Current Horses
Gran Torino 10/-3.9 (13.9)
Anelene 10 (10)
Art Thou Ready 10/-2/-0.6 (12.6)
Carmine King 10/-2/-4.5 (16.5)
Signified 10/-1.4/-0.8 (12.2)
Racing Heart 10/-0.5/-0.5 (11)
Madam Nash 10/-1/-0.5 (11.5)
Number One Gun 10/-1.7 (11.7)
Hurdy Gurdy Man 10/-0.5 (10.5)
Dayita 10/-1.9 (11.9)
Shamrock Slipper 10/-1.3 (11.3)
Mashkoor 10/-4.6 (14.6)
Texan 10/-6.3 (16.3)
Baron Douro 10/-1.6 (11.6)
Roses In The Glen 10/-1.6 (11.6)
My Ex Mate 10/-0.5 (10.5)
Flying Bay 10/-1.3 (11.3)

Cheers

Doc

keep it going doc, brill ;)