just an example chrome. i'll come up with another. family dreams in perth 2 weeks ago 6 / sept i think. 1.80 favourit in field of 8. got done by 20/1 pop - big dam. gallieni on the weekend in sydney.

Dinodog,

Think you may need to check your results there, particularly the place figures. This is what I got from my database for a similar period.

All days, races with 4 - 7 runners, Tabcorp price $1.10-$1.90:
891 selections, 470 winners , 672 placings
Win (Tabcorp): -$123.90 (-13.9% LOT)
Win (Best TAB): -65.50 (-7.4% LOT)
Place (NSW): -87.24 (-9.8% LOT)

Saturday Metro (AR, MR, SR, BR) with 4-7 runners, Tabcorp $1.10-$1.90:
99 selections, 61 winners, 86 placings
Win (Tabcorp): -$3.90 (-3.9% LOT)
Win (Best TAB): +2.30 (2.3% POT)
Place (NSW): 1.26 (+1.27% POT)

Definitely much better results on the metro tracks. Remember this is without any filters at all except for price - imagine what you can do with a couple of very simple form-based filters and adding in the benefit of either SP or Best Tote div whichever is the higher :wink:

Many thanks Dinodog and Becareful, very interesting results indeed!

I wasn't too surprised that whereas betting small field favourites in the city can be profitable, that isn't the case in the country. Given that so much more is known about horses in metro races than their country counterparts, it is nothing less than what you'd expect.

What did surprise me was the extent of the LOT in country races. I'm even toying with the blanket approach of betting against the favourites in these situations, regardless of how little I know about these horses (and their opposition).

With the totes you'd just fall short, as their take on win betting is about 18% (I think). However I'm sure now DiviPlus operate on all races, you'd come out in front with them (particularly as with the low tote pools, the prices of the winner could vary markedly across states. Bear in mind you are betting AGAINST the short priced favourite, which on average would have more than half the win pool bet on it).

I know there are other issues involved. For example, you'd have fun trying to dutch bet the other 6 or so horses on DiviPlus (wild price fluctuations close to the start being another effect of the small pools). However gut feeling says that the effect of this in terms of profit and loss would tend to even out. I just wonder if there might be some merit in pursuing this further, particularly in the way of developing additional filters, and also the staking strategy to use (obviously dutch betting is only one of many possible options).

Any thoughts much appreciated, and thanks again to all the contributors.

becareful wrote:

Saturday Metro (AR, MR, SR, BR) with 4-7 runners, Tabcorp $1.10-$1.90:
99 selections, 61 winners, 86 placings
Win (Tabcorp): -$3.90 (-3.9% LOT)
Win (Best TAB): +2.30 (2.3% POT)
Place (NSW): 1.26 (+1.27% POT)

Definitely much better results on the metro tracks. Remember this is without any filters at all except for price - imagine what you can do with a couple of very simple form-based filters and adding in the benefit of either SP or Best Tote div whichever is the higher.
..................

Imagine also what how you can go if you get TF on some of these horses.

How do you decide what the favourite will be in practice? I backed Jeremaid on course about 2 minutes before the jump at $3.60 with bookies. I am not sure what Regent Street was paying then.
John

Sorry it has taken so long to reply.

Firstly, just to clear the air some re my database. I have NSW Tab only.

Becareful... The question was $2.00 favourites, and under, not $1.10 to $1.90. 3-7 runners not 4. As to any further discrepancy, I don't know. Maybe distance, I only went 800- 3200m. My database is back to 1/1/2000 and I'm confident it is atleast 95% correct to there. As for the period back to 30/6/2001, I am confident to 99%. I have recently discovered some small gliches with results, but that is only the past 5 weeks, with the fix expected in the next two days. I really don't foresee any real changes for just the past 5 weeks.

I don't reckon anyone would expect any great returns for the place price, maybe a better strike rate. The place divvies were mostly around the $1.10 mark and some only $1.00.

Regards

Dinodog

[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2003-09-18 20:52 ]

[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2003-09-18 21:05 ]

[ This Message was edited by: dinodog on 2003-09-18 21:14 ]

Dinodog,

I think you were replying to Darren's query - he asked for <$2.00 which I interpreted as up to $1.90 only (ie odds on, not even money). The 3-7 runners was my mistake - I normally go 4-7 so at least you get a place div. Maybe your problem is here - with 3 runners you will not be getting any place div paid but maybe your system is still counting the selections so dragging down the place profit (there weren't that many 3-runner races but enough to affect the results in this way if your db doesn't report it correctly???)

NSW rarely pays a place div under $1.04 so to get an AVERAGE div of LESS than $1.04 seems to indicate something wrong - my average place div was around $1.24 which seems more reasonable to me given that I found a few where the place div was up around $1.50, $1.60 etc.

Just a suggestion - try the query again with 4-7 runners and see what you find? OR try it with 3 runners and see what it says about place results?

Regards,
"Becareful"

Have found this thread very helpful. Thanks all!

Any comments on place betting when there is no third dividend? I think another thread suggested that the dividend actually increases --- but, of course, there are only two payers.

:???:

Just an update on the results of betting favourites in small fields.

Criteria:
7 runners or less
less than $2.00 on TabCorp

Selections:49
Winners: 34
Strike Rate: 69.39%
Profit: $5.80
POT: 11.84%
Average Dividend $1.61

September Results
Selections: 6
Winners: 4
Strike Rate: 66.67%
Profit: $0.30
POT: 5.00%
Average Dividend: $1.58
Winners:
Lonhro
Hasna
Chiming Mill
Quite Easy

Hi CP,
Any chance you can run this through your data base,which Ive watched for a while and throws up a lot of big priced winners.
Mon to Fri only 6 or less runners bet the 3 longest prices.

Cheers