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- - Melbourne Cup 2020 (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=32098)

I'm always weary of including horses that are trying to have a second or third go at it. Seems the often can run a place if performed well in previous years but rarely actually win. Now that may be simply due to luck or variance but its incredibly hard to win one melbourne cup, its even harder to try again second time around after losing previously with typically a higher weight and another years runs in the legs at an older age.

Not saying those runners can't run a great race, but if you want to narrow down the winning chances they'd be the first i'd look at in terms of winning. But it would be dangerous not to include them in exotics for placings.

Just noticed that the table I posted up was wrong. The total included a "< 10th position on the turn" point, which hasn't been part of "the system" since the first year (retrospectively).

Removing that column leaves Tiger Moth and Surprise Baby as the only ones with a clean sweep.

Nominees racing this Wednesday. Runners are eligible for a weight handicap in The Cup. Top 3 here run a qualifying performance and the prizemoney is added to their tally in the Order of Entry (latest one: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...-2020.pdf?la=en).

No-one's going to leap their way into the Top 24 without a weight penalty. There could be some shuffling in the order though: San Huberto winning would see him land in 25th position.

bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)

ASHRUN (FR)	34	$3.80
SKYWARD (FR)	37	$4.40
LE DON DE VIE (GB)	38	$5.50
STEEL PRINCE (IRE)	35	$5.50
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)	25	$8.50
SAN HUBERTO (IRE)	30	$8.50
ENTENTE	YTPFBC	$16.00
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ)	33	$26

I appreciate all the work you put it.

I'll do my final selections the day of the cup, but its looking like a more condensed set of selections this year compared to the last few years.

I only remove runners who have been in this race previously and not run well. Its a good filter to use but a little subjective.

Results from Cup nominees yesterday:

2400m Good4 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000

STEEL PRINCE (IRE)	35	1st of 9	0L	@ $3.5
LE DON DE VIE (GB)	38	2nd of 9	0.2L	@ $8
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)	25	3rd of 9	1.45L	@ $8.5
ASHRUN (FR)	34	4th of 9	1.65L	@ $6
SKYWARD (FR)	37	5th of 9	2.4L	@ $5
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ)	33	7th of 9	5.25L	@ $21
SAN HUBERTO (IRE)	30	8th of 9	10.25L	@ $26
ENTENTE	56=	9th of 9	12.5L	@ $8

Steel Prince was awarded a 0.5kg weight penalty for his Geelong Cup victory yesterday. This seems him promoted up to 25th in the Order of Entry.
Not as good news for Django Freeman, Aktau and Santiago who have all been withdrawn through injury.

Here's the Order of Entry released today: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...3326db11d5.ashx (NB - still includes Django Freeman). 62 runners remain in the hunt. Two ballot exemptions are still on offer: one to the victor of Saturday's Cox Plate and the other to the winner of the Hotham Stakes (the Saturday following).

There's less than 2 weeks to until the big dance! :O

Today's Cup nominees:

The Valley - Race 8 - 3:30PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)

Nominee	Order	Price
OCEANEX (NZ)	2=	$10
ETAH JAMES (NZ)	21	$26
MIAMI BOUND (NZ)	22	$21
HUSH WRITER (JPN)	36	$11
SOUND (GER)	39	$5.50
CARIF	42	$21.00
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)	45	$15
SELINO (GB)	51	$11
LEVENDI	52	$31
SHARED AMBITION (IRE)	54	$4

The Valley - Race 9 - 4:15PM Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040 METRES)

Nominee	Order	Price
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)	7	$4.20
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)	11	$11
BUCKHURST (IRE)	15	$26
MUGATOO (IRE)	28	$20
MASTER OF WINE (GER)	33	$41

Sir Dragonets run was eye catching. It was a good ride though which couldn't be faulted.

Weekend results from Cup nominees:

2040m Soft7 COX PLATE Group 1 $5,250,000

Horse	Order	Place	Price
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)	2	1st of 14	$7.5
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)	8	3rd of 14	$3.5
MUGATOO (IRE)	28	4th of 14	$26
MASTER OF WINE (GER)	33	8th of 14	$31
BUCKHURST (IRE)	15	10th of 14	$26

2500m Soft7 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000

Horse	Order	Place	Price
MIAMI BOUND (NZ)	22	1st of 12	$26
SHARED AMBITION (IRE)	44	2nd of 12	$4.2
OCEANEX (NZ)	3=	3rd of 12	$10
ETAH JAMES (NZ)	21	4th of 12	$31
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)	46	5th of 12	$19
SOUND (GER)	39	6th of 12	$5.5
CARIF	42	7th of 12	$18
SELINO (GB)	52	8th of 12	$9.5
LEVENDI	53	11th of 12	$21
HUSH WRITER (JPN)	36	12th of 12	$16

Collide is out and there may be a few more to follow tomorrow, with third acceptances due. Following the weekend's racing, "the system" tallies now looks like this:

Horse	Order	Total	Less than 8yo	Wgt < 57kg	Not a mare	<= $21 SP	< $16 in last	Wgtd < than in last	FS in last >= 10	Won Black Type	<=3L in last	<6 victories
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)	2	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)	8	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TIGER MOTH (IRE)	11	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)	18	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)	9	9	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1
FINCHE (GB)	20	9	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1
SCHABAU (GER)	48	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
ATTORNEY (FR)	50=	9	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)	26	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
NICKAJACK CAVE (IRE)	32	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
ASHRUN (FR)	35	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
LE DON DE VIE (GB)	37	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
SKYWARD (FR)	38	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)	43	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
SHARED AMBITION (IRE)	44	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
PONDUS (GB)	47	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
PERSAN	3=	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE)	57=	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
ADMIRE ROBSON (JPN)	57=	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
FUTURE SCORE (IRE)	57=	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)	1	7	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	0
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE)	5	7	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0
BUCKHURST (IRE)	15	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
MIAMI BOUND (NZ)	22	7	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1
STEEL PRINCE (IRE)	25	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
ZEBROWSKI (NZ)	30	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	1
MASTER OF WINE (GER)	33	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
HUSH WRITER (JPN)	36	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
PATHS OF GLORY (GB)	49	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
SELINO (GB)	52	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
LEVENDI	53	7	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
OCEANEX (NZ)	3=	7	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
ENTENTE	55=	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1
CADRE DU NOIR (USA)	57=	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)	10	6	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
MIRAGE DANCER (GB)	13	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)	16	6	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0
WARNING	17	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB)	19	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	24	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0
MUGATOO (IRE)	28	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)	29	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
SAN HUBERTO (IRE)	31	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ)	34	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1
SOUND (GER)	39	6	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
AZURO (FR)	40	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
CHAPADA	41	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
CARIF	42	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
HAKY (IRE)	45	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
AL GALAYEL (IRE)	54	6	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
MIDTERM (GB)	50=	6	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	1
LORD BELVEDERE (GB)	55=	6	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
GRAND PROMENADE (GB)	57=	6	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1
VOW AND DECLARE	6	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
AVILIUS (GB)	7	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0
MUSTAJEER (GB)	12	5	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
STRATUM ALBION (GB)	14	5	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0
TOFFEE TONGUE (NZ)	23	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)	46	5	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
ETAH JAMES (NZ)	21	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0
TRUE SELF (IRE)	27	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0

Third acceptances are in and there are a couple of surprises: three of the top 24 dropped out of the running.

Mirage Dancer (formerly 13th) was the highest of these. After taking out the Metropolitan he finished a long adrift second-last in the Caulfield Cup; he must have had a niggle he couldn't overcome.
After all the hullaballoo about being the Cox Plate emergency behind less worthy runners, Buckhurst (formerly 15th in the order) finished well off the pace in 10th. Now he's out of the Cup.
Toffee Tongue (23rd in the order) was 14th in the Caulfield Cup
Mugatoo would have now been on the bubble, but has elected not to continue after his 4th placing in the Cox Plate (in which he finished 3.5L back and ran 5 lengths further than the winner).
Raheen House was one further spot back in the Order (and a lot further back in the Caulfield Cup)
Too far back in the order and out of time were: Master Of Wine, Brimham Rocks, Shared Ambition, Paths Of Glory, Midterm, Selino, Levendi, Al Galayel and Entente.
Cadre du Noir and Grand Promenade were yet to pass the first ballot clause and pulled the pin.

45 remain in the running. The current Order of Entry is here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...oct-26-2020.pdf

Four are still to pass the first ballot clause: Lord Belvedere, Admire Robson, Future Score and Saracen Knight.
The Bendigo Cup on Wednesday is a qualifying race and prizemoney attained will count. It will be very interesting around the bottom of the Top 24. The Hotham Stakes winner will leap above them all, but Zebrowski could sneak into 23rd with a win at Bendigo.
Everybody else seems to either be counting on further attrition or to win the Hotham
True Self is currently in 24th but hasn't nominated for either (or maybe the Racing Australia website still needs an update; noms only closed 3 hours ago for the Bendigo Cup).