Update
 

Clijster's cruised through in a fairly impressive result and now meets Davenport in the final. I'll be sitting this one out as the 'mental pressure factor' is too unpredictable - though Lindsay deserves to be favourite. Big week next week as the NASDQ gets underway so there'll be plenty of betting action.

Good to see the ATP lads are on a roll too.

Update

Bets 39; 31 Won; 8 Lost.
At Flat Stakes: Bet 39; Won 12.7; ROI 32.5%

Marco,
A few questions:

You really seem to a have great knowledge on the WTA. How long have you been analyzing and betting WTA?

What is your overall R.O.I?

Do you use a model to obtain ratings and prices?

Do you rate ALL WTA matches (not just the ones you mention here)?

Cheers!

Rock Steady - more than happy to answer questions but might be easier to do by email as this will save clogging up this tips thread.
Drop me a line on woof9898@yahoo.com.au - anyone who has questions can do likewise. Thanks.

First round tips for Nasdaq will be posted as soon as major bookies price up.

NASDAQ - Miami
 

Granville vs Gagliardi
Nasdaq - Qualifier Second Round

I don't usually bet on qualifiers but quite a few books have offered markets on this game. Granville's in great form at the moemnt - she won the St Paul and Midland hardcourt challengers last month and has a solid 89-58 carrer record on the surface. She also played quite well in Indian Wells last week beating Irvin and putting up a good fight against the classy Linetskya (who went on to knockout Mauresmo). Gagliardi is another matter. She is inconsistent to say the least and is still in the doghouse after meekly surrendering to Serra Zanetti in Acapulco (a losing bet for me). This is her first hardcourt tournament since Acapulco's clay, though she won in the first round over the low ranked and inexperienced Ahsha Rolle. Mind you, Rolle who's only played a few WTA matches, still took her to a tiebreaker. Granville on the other hand, double bagelled the more experienced Sequerra in the first round of qualifiers. Gagliardi's 65/87 hardcourt record also leaves a bit to be desired - as does her tenacity and general mental strength. The value is certainly with Granville in this one - I rate her a 70.1% chance of winning.

Granville $1.47 @ 5dimes.
(You can currently get better prices elsewhere - $1.50 or so - but 1.47 is price I received).

Update and Nasdaq-Miami
 

Bets 40; Won 32; Lost 8.
At Flat Stakes: Bet 40; Won 13.17; ROI 32.9%

Granville got across the line last night though I was surpised she took 3 sets to win.

Bookies very slow to price up WTA today - hope it's better during the week. I'll just list 5Dimes lines - there may be better prices with others later. May add a couple of games after the other major bookies price up (approx 1-2 hours time).



Peer vs Domachowska
Nasdaq - Round 1

Young Israeli Shahar Peer cam through qualifying in great fashion by thunping Talaja and Serra Zanetti in straight sets. She's also having a great season going 14-6 and easily beat Domachowska in the first round of the Pattaya hardcourts last month. Peer came through the qualies in that tournamnet as well so it's a virtual mirror of the current circumstances. Domachowska is no slouch on hardcourts with a 46/21 career record but her form of late has been rather average. She stuggled past clay couter Salerni in Indian
Wells last week but was then thumped by Garrigues. Prior to this she was 3-4 for the season in a series of up-and-down performances. Peer should be to quick for Domachowska and has the qualies as a valuable warm up.

Peer $1.64 @ 5Dimes


Bondarenko v Jidkova
Nasdaq - Round 1

Bondarenko's a young Ukranian with a good all-round game who has probably been playing the best tennis of her short career in the past few months. Her best reults came in Hyderabad where she was beaten in the final by hometown hero Mirza (though Bondarenko did benefit from Groenefeld withdrawing from their semi-final). Bondarenko's steady progress has seen her rating rise about 30 or so places this season and she comes into todays match with a couple of solid qualification results under her belt. Admittedly her opponents were rather lowly rated but her challenger today - Jidkova - has played very little lately and was easily beaten in Round 1 of Indian Wells last week.Jidkova's a paltry 2-6 for the season but the one thing in her favour is experience and the H2h which she leads 2-0 (though the games are dated). However I doubt this is enough to get her across the line. The value's with Bondarenko whom I rate a 62% chance of winning.

Bondarenko $1.69 @ 5Dimes

Medina-Garrigues v Weingartner.
Nasdaq - Round 1

Although I've opposed Garrigues in the past few weeks, I believe she'll have too much for the out-of-form Weingartner. Garrigues has had an ordinary start to the season - though most of her losses have been to top rated players such as Molik, Pierce and Dulko. However from what I saw in Indian Wells last week she's beginning to play good tennis with an easy win over Domachowska and a battling effort in losing to Kirilenko. While more of a claycourt player, Garrigues still has some good results on hard. Her
opponent Weingartner is 3-4 for the season and has a very moderate 87/106 record on the surface. Moreover, she has a rather ordinary record in this tournament and in general seems to struggle on the American hardcourt swing. Weingartner was knocked out in the first round of Indian Wells and with only a handful of games this year looks a little underdone (as reflected her ever dimishing WTA ranking).

Medina-Garrigues $1.63 @5Dimes

Notes - Avoid Daniliidou whose withdrawn from a couple of tournaments with an inflammed thumb. Likewise Groenefeld who is a few games back form a right knee strain.

Update and Nasdaq-Miami

Bets 43; Won 34; Lost 9.
At Flat Stakes: Bet 43; Won 13.33; ROI 31%

Relatively ordinary day - Garrigues was busy thumping Weingartner who then decided to retire (5Dimes is a 'first set for action' bookie so the bet stands), Peer played poorly to just scrape home and Bondarenko put in a shocker. Overall a small profit for the day.

I noticed Peer's price was only avialable for about half an hour before plunging with the weight of some big money. I'll therefore record her price as $1.54 - closer to the going rate - to keep the betting record on a more even keel. Note that you could get Garrigues and Bondarenko at slightly better prices but I'll leave them as they are.

My model did fairly poorly across all games yesterday. My higher rated player usually beats the lower rated player about 71% of the time - yesterday it was closer to 50%. Perhaps the slow conditions and weather delays played a part but I'll be a tad cautious over the next round or two.


Linetskya v Sucha.
Nasdaq - Round 1

A short price here but worth the punt as Linetskya is a very talented youngster displaying excellent current form. Most peple are fixated on her win over Mauresmo last week which was great, but Mauresmo's plethora of unforced errors certainly let her into the game. However Linetskya's form prior to this game was also strong with wins over Zvonereva, Morigami and Granville. She's 12-6 for the season and has 51-20 record on the surface. Though young she has performed well on the American harcourt swing and her
aggression is a definite asset. In contrast, Martina Sucha is having an ordinary 2005. She's 2-6 for the season with one of her wins coming against the terribly out-of-form Sugiyama and the other was won through Bedanova's retirement. Sucha was knocked out in the first round of Indian Wells lastweek, was knocked out int he first round of the Nasdaq in 2004, and was knocked out in the first round of the Nasdaq qualifiers in 2003. In fact she's 0-5 in her appearances at Miami. Note that Linetskya also thumped Sucha in Round 2 of this year's Australian Open - I rate her a 82.1% chance of winning.

Linetskya $1.25 @ WillHills
(early line - Pinnacle may have a better price later but I expect her to eventually shorten).

More bets posted this arvo after the numbers are crunched. Time for some sleep!

Voskoboeva vs Uberoi
Nasdaq - Round 1

Wouldn't normally take someone of Voskoboeva's standing at such low odds but I rate her an 85.2% chance of winning so I think there's value at the price. Voskoboeva's a competent hardcourt player with a solid clay record - so she won't mind the slower conditions. She hasn't set the world on fire this season but played very well in qualifying by beating the talented, never-say-die Cho and Nakamura. She also had a pretty good tournament in the Orange challenger last week losing to evntual winner Cho in a tight third round, 3-set encounter. In some respects this bet is more against Uberoi who is a moderate challenger type player who is ranked 299 and only made the Nasdaq as a wildcard (note this is Neha Uberoi and not the more talented Shikha Uberoi). Neha's only played 5 games this season (going 2/3) - including an easy loss to the totally unheralded Julie Ditty. She was also beaten last week in the first round of qualifying for the Orange challenger! In short, Voskoboeva's no world-beater but she's had a great qualie session and comes up against an underdone, lowly-ranked outsider who rarely plays at this level.

Voskoboeva $1.30 generally available.
( a few offer $1.35 but not at my bookies)

Kirilenko V Chakvetadze
Nasdaq - Round 1

I've written plenty about Kirilenko so won't go back over it. Chakvetadze is another up-and-coming talent from Russia who is capable of winning tonight but probably prefers faster conditions. Her best recent reults have come on Indoor carpet, a far cry form the sometimes windy and slow Miami courts. She does however have some good wins under her belt and had a reasonably good tournament in Indian Wells last week. Should be a close encounter but I believe the in-form Kirilenko will prevail as a 65.5% favourite.

Kirilenko $1.57 WillHill
(may be better prices by a few cents later).

Extra Bet
 

Mirza v Sanchez-Lorenzo
Nasdaq - Round 1

Mirza's the Indian wunderkid who made a name for herself last month by winning the Hyderabad tournament. She's a classy type with very strong groundstrokes which have seen her go 10/3 for the season. She has been troubled by ankle injuries lately but appears over the worst of it as seen in her straight sets win over the highly rated Kuznetsova in Dubai. Her opponent today Snachez-Lornzo is a competent hardcourt player who won't mind the slower conditions as she's equally at home on clay. She's had a very ordinary 6 months and a very ordinary 2005 (2-6 thus far) with her ranking dropping more than 60 places during this period. A short price but the value's with Mirza.

Mirza $1.36 generally available.

Update and Nasdaq

Bets 47; Win 37; Lost 10.
At Flat Stakes; Bet 47; Won 13.50; ROI 28.7%

Three out of four last night with Mirza ruining what could have been an excellent day. Nevertheless, a small profit made on the selections.


Shaughnessy v Schiavone
Nasdaq - Round 2

Shaughnessy has the advantage of playing a solid First Round match where sheeasily disposed of Fedak while Schiavone is coming off the bye. Shaughnessy,who generally plays well on home soil, is also coming off some solid Memphis formwhere she reached the finals after beating the likes of Vaidisova, Cho and Granville. Her Indian Wells form was pretty good too, losing in the third round to Davenport (she even managed to win a set). Her opponent Schiavone is a capable hardcourt player with an 82/62 career record. However she's had a mixed year which has seen her go 7/6 for the season. Her form in Doha was good but a loss to lowly-ranked Fujiwara in Indian Wells last week doesn't inspire confidence. Interestingly this was in the second round after Schiavone came off a bye. She was also eliminated in the first round of Dubai - albeit by a good player in Bovina, but this means she's had very little court time over the past few weeks. Should be a close match but Shaughnessy is a clear 61.1% favourite in my book.

Shaughnessy $1.83 @ Ladbrokes.
(I think the market will split these two fairly evenly so this price should hold).

Update

Bet 48; Win 37; Lost 11
At Flat Stakes: Bet 48; Won 12.50; ROI 26%

Well Good Friday wasn't so good! Shaughnessy shoulda, coulda, woulda . . . but didn't.
Never mind, let's get back on the horse and see how we go.

Backing an outsider tonight so keep your heart-medication close by.


Randriantefy v Koukalova.
Nasdaq - Round 2

I have these two fairly evenly matched at 53.7-46.3% to Randriantefy who is the marginally better hardcourt player. Both girls prefer clay though they're more evenly matched on the dirt (so the slow conditions shouldn't favour either girl). However Randriantefy has the advantage of a solid First-Round match under her belt. Granted her opponent Peterson was lowly ranked, but this warm-up compares favourably to Koukalova's preparation as she last played on Antwerp's carpet some 4 weeks ago. Much of this absence was forced by right shoulder tendonitis so she should be a bit rusty. Her form prior to her last appearance was also ordinary to say the least. Value is defintiely with the Madagascan.

Randriantefy $2.00 @ Ladbrokes and WillHill
(these are early lines - may be slightly better price later)