Only consider the place % which should be at 60 or better Desi and you're welcome mate. Just hope you can put it to good use and win a few dollars.

Good thread lads and an interesting chat. I am going to put my 0.5cents worth, because what I am going to say is not even worth 2cents.

Privateer, some excellent points but to just a minor thing. To say that place strike rate is "a much better" indicator than winning strike rate is a bit of a misnomer.
I only comment because this is one stat I have studied closely over the years also.
Place strike has an edge, approx. 1-2% over winning strike rate if you are taking the top placegetter over the top winner. It is up to you whether you believe 1-2% is significant or not and that is over a long period of time.
But if you looking at win v place over say the top 5-6 horses there is no difference at all.

Just a small thing, good luck to you all.

Might as well grab some more info off you guys while I can...Is it worthwhile betting on races for 2 year olds, fields of 7 or less and the cup meetings at non metro courses?

Choosing winners/ placegetters in races where there are large fields (esp 2 yr olds) seem like a lottery to me...Having no 3rd place dividend might cut down your opportunity for a place bet (have been caught out so many times before that I decided to keep to betting on 8 or more) and I have found some value bets in the non metro courses' cup days...

Or does it depend on just whether you criteria produces standout (potential) winners...thank you...
Cheers...

For me at least betting each way, I found that overall, the chance of a horse finishing 1, 2 or 3 was greatly enhanced if it had a place strike rate of more than 60% and that overall, the place percentage was a better guide to a first three placing than its respective winning percentage. Hope that is a little clearer.

Sorry Desi, we were on at the same time, I'll just edit this one...

I don't bet on 2 year olds unless all of the runners have had at least 3 starts.

I don't entertain fields of 7 or less as I bet each way.

Cup meetings at non-metro courses? I wouldn't as I only like metro races BUT races like the Cranbourne Cup, Geelong Cup, Newcastle Cup etc often have very good fields usually of metro standard so probably worth a go.

For me, I'm a bit ruthless and simply stick to my method. That's why I don't go to the races often for fear of lashing out on something simply for an interest. (I'll have to give the missus my cash on Saturday!) What I have found is that the better the class of the field, the better my method seems to work plus I live for huge fields!


Cheers

Privateer,

Did you find signifigant drops or increases in distance as a statistically signifigant facotor?

Thanks,
Matt

g'day Privateer, you seem to be pretty popular => & i confess after reading your posts im going to approach the punt differently ! just a quik question , on your 60% place rule , how many starts before a horse will enter your system ? eg you tipped tick by i think on the w'end , seemed to be a fair ask for the horse , big step up in grade etc , cheers

milbre

Matt

That was not something I even considered to be truthful. It probably does not occur on a regular enough basis to justify consideration as a valid selection criteria. It could have some merit but it would want to be supported by something a little stronger such as the horse/trainer has done this successfully before or it is a known front runner on a wet track perhaps? Very subjective but if you want to have a look at it I'd be interested in knowing how it goes.

Cheers

Privateer

Milbre

As long as a horse has had 3 runs in its life it is eligible for my method.

Re Tick By, every horse in the race was up in grade all tackling their first group 1. Freedman has a very high opinion of the horse and it ran well although immaturely. Will be a good horse come Spring time.