Well it was a tough day on the punt today but working hard to obtain the best prices and only betting the value ensured a profit was had. Onward to tomorrow.

ok, lets put it another way, IF your strategy shows a profit at level stakes then yes you can increase profits (but probably not the POT) with just about any staking plan. IF your strategy does not show a profit at level stakes ......no staking plan will turn it around , long term that is.

You just need an advantage and to turn over your bank x number of times to derive a good income. Luck is not a factor.

Assume that a bank of 10k and your edge is a mere 2%. (mine is a lot higher than 2%).
Turning over your bank once, your profit is $200.
Hardly a wage, however, suppose you could turn over your bank 10 times in a week, suddenly your wage is 2k from a mere 10k bank, even though the edge remains 2%.

2% is amazingly conservative.

The above also assumes 2% of bank level stakes, not staking plans or higher percentage of bank bet which increases risk.

2% GUARANTEED large volume would suit me Chrome! (the Casinos edge; that'll do)

Chrome Prince,

Betting 2% of your bank is allowing for a maximum drawdown of only 50 units.

If you are going to turnover that $10k bank 10 times in a week as you say, that is 500 bets.

Now, 500 bets in a week is a high turnover method in anyones language. If you think 50 units drawdown is conservative on a high turnover method like that, you are dreaming.

So again, I would strongly encourage newcomers to ignore your post as you would need a huge amount of luck to not go bankrupt.

Post deleted. If you think a user is an idiot or their post is not worth reading that's your business. Don't post about it in the forums. Public ridicule is not permitted. Add the poster to your ignore list if you feel strongly about it. Click User CP link at top left then scroll down to Buddy/Ignore Lists link. No more warnings about this. If you feel the user has violated the Terms of Use, report it via the TOU violation function. Thanks.

I'm risking an accusation of flaming here but mate, you either can't read, don't bother reading posts or just plain lack comprehension!

CP was talking about making 2%, (minimum, he says he is making much more) not betting 2 % of the bank.

I'll accept an apology at any stage lomaca

you'll have a long wait matey!

Being a betting man I'd say never!

Have you worked out where you are wrong yet?

It's there for all to see.

Very poor form lomaca.

We all make mistakes, but most of us are man enough to apologise after throwing out insults for no reason.

Perhaps next time you will slow down and check everything before flying off. It will save you a lot of embarrassment.

Moderator,

I am new to this forum so please bear with me. If the first line was against the rules, why can not just that line be deleted and the rest of the post allowed to stay?

Thank you for your help.

Bhagwan,

It seems my first post in response to this quote was deleted because it was deemed offensive. So therefore I apologise to you for any hurt caused.

However, I must disagree strongly with your post.

If the only way you can make a profit is by stopping at a target during the day, it means your method has no long-term edge and you will eventually lose long-term.

If you do have a long-term edge and you are stopping for safety reasons, it means you are missing out on vital profit which will eventually see you lose long-term.

I don't think Kenchar comes here anymore but he would not agree with that idea and is a long term winner, just because one idea does not work for you then don't dismiss that idea altogether.

There are many ways to win at this game and new bet types all the time, things that were done and said in the past may not hold as true as you think in todays times.

I hope it is not the case for his sake, but perhaps he no longer comes here because the maths have caught up with him and he is no longer a winner.

The fact is, if the only way you can profit is by stopping at a certain target, it means your method has no edge.

On the other hand, he may have a very profitable edge and is severely cutting his profits by stopping, which will threaten his long-term edge.

Either way, it is not a good position to be in and certainly not a method to be used.

Feel free to disagree, as you are assuming quite a bit about what I do.

I could be having 500 place bets on short horses, I could be betting longshots only, I could be backing half the field.
In all but one of those scenarios, I wouldn't come close to 50 units drawdown at any stage.

As previously stated, these things are not black and white.
His edge revolves around fluctuations on maiden horses, therefore it makes no sense to bet on the later races.
I know quite a few punters who lack discipline and the only way they can win is to stop at a winner, or they give it all back.
Maths doesn't incorporate the above factors into the equation.

Guys you can all argue amongst yourselves all you want but there is 1 thing you can't argue with and that is the sze of the funds in your betting accounts. If they are going up then continue what your doing.. if they are going down then eventually you will go broke. If they going up then who cares what others say.. if they are going down then maybe you should listen to them.

When a post is publicly moderated it is deleted in full with a moderation note. This is common practice on many forums. No more discussion about this. Thanks.

Post deleted.

If you feel another user is an idiot or doesn't know what they are talking about, that's your business. Don't post about it in the forums. You are welcome to disagree and post your opinion, but public ridicule is not acceptable. Add them to your ignore list if you feel strongly about it. Click User CP link at top left then scroll down to Buddy/Ignore Lists link. If you feel the user has violated the Terms of Use, report it via the red triangle TOU violation function. Thanks.

Post deleted. Please do not make allegations here about what is posted on other forums. Thanks.

ixlato,

One of the reasons you could be losing long-term is because you are over complicating things.

If you have an edge, it means your selection method will return a profit betting level stakes.

All this talk about "taming, beast, control" etc makes no sense and is probably confusing you somewhat. Make it more simple for yourself, if you make a profit while betting level stakes, it means you have an edge. Then you can start changing staking plans to maximise profits.

You are correct about drawdowns, but that is basic bank management which you should really have under control before you even consider punting.

Chrome prince,

What you are now saying is something completely different.

If he no longer has any selections after the maiden races are finished, then he has no selections. That is not stopping. That means there is no more selections.

However, if he still has selections after the maiden races are finished and stops, then he is stopping. And if he is stopping, of course maths will be involved. It means he is not maximising his profits.

wesmip1,

While I understand your post had the best of intentions, I still think I need to clarify something for you.

Just because your bank blanace is increasing, it does not mean your method has a long-term edge.

Even a method that loses long-term will have strong winning periods.

Todays Pot of Platinum contenders.


14:00 par R02 # 2 Fox Solid Pot of Platinum
14:35 par R03 # 6 Lester Cove Pot of Platinum
15:10 par R04 # 6 Corley Moor Pot of Platinum
15:45 par R05 # 3 American Tale Pot of Platinum
16:57 par R07 # 7 Chatterchic Pot of Platinum
17:35 par R08 # 2 Coco Kerringle Pot of Platinum
15:40 pij R01 # 1 Super Hawk Pot of Platinum
16:17 pij R02 # 1 Ranger Pot of Platinum
16:52 pij R03 # 1 Aylesford Pot of Platinum
18:07 pij R05 # 6 Hard Candy Pot of Platinum
18:45 pij R06 # 2 Easy Rider Pot of Platinum
18:45 pij R06 # 6 Lipton Pot of Platinum
19:25 pij R07 # 5 Golden Heart Pot of Platinum
19:25 pij R07 #11 Werd Pot of Platinum
20:05 pij R08 # 4 Amelias Dancer Pot of Platinum
13:45 pol R01 # 1 Hightom Pot of Platinum
13:45 pol R01 # 6 Comic Cat Pot of Platinum
14:20 pol R02 # 1 Firer Me Pot of Platinum
14:55 pol R03 # 5 Busterwabbit Pot of Platinum
14:55 pol R03 # 6 Extreme Ways Pot of Platinum
16:09 pol R05 # 6 Jail Strait Pot of Platinum
16:44 pol R06 # 1 Gallipoli Beach Pot of Platinum
17:20 pol R07 # 5 Heart Of Stone Pot of Platinum
13:30 sun R01 # 2 Moon Lady Pot of Platinum
14:40 sun R03 # 3 Craiglea Falcon Pot of Platinum
15:15 sun R04 # 1 Metaphysical Pot of Platinum
15:50 sun R05 # 5 Intadom Pot of Platinum
15:50 sun R05 # 6 Pointe Dancer Pot of Platinum
17:44 sun R08 # 2 Guns Pot of Platinum

I think that any punter who lacks discipline and relies upon stopping at a certain point in their day should give the game away until they can master the discipline side of things. Punters who lack discipline will give it all back in the end. Nothing is surer.

As for stopping at a given point in the day I think this is madness. I have an edge and I want to maximize that edge. An edge in punting is hard enough to find without taking only a part time advantage of that edge.

If the strategy does NOT have a long term edge, then it doesn't matter how you slice up the punting continuum, 12 to 2, 1 to 3, 2 to 4 or so on, the negative expectation will catch up with you long term and YOU WILL LOSE. Unless of course you add one of Darky's sure-fire strategies such as cutting out all horses with an R in their name. That might make it work!

You keep talking about edge but these selections constantly show a loss on level stakes, thus no edge.

How can there be an edge if level stakes show a loss ?

Post deleted. Large bold type is shouting. Not here please.

.

this is a lost cause .... how about a bet off ... Me vs you. To include value we can set the price at a minimum of $3 as an accepted bet, Level stakes only with $10 on each selection. Prices accepted are unitab only.

Comp will run a minimum of 50 bets above $3.

If you are so sure of yourself I am happy to provide some friendly competition as there are a few new systems I would like to test live.

This is the silliest thing I've read on a punting forum for a long time. Value, TRUE VALUE, has no concept of an across the board minimum price. Some horses in some races are value at 1.6, others are value at 16.0, others are value at 160.0

But since your not going to devulge how you measure value for each horse how else can be one ... think before you post ....

Its ok .. your obviously scared of the competition cause you know your selections are not well thought out and can't make a level stakes profit....

No need to cry about it and start attacking people ....

Post deleted. Shouting.

wesmip1,

TheNeedle is correct, your understanding of the term "value" is somewhat misguided.

As betting "value" is the most important part of long-term success, I would strongly encourage you to gain a better understanding of "value".

Just remember people are here to help, so fire away with any questions if you have them.

I understand value ... but how else can we run a comp against his "value" if he won't tell us what he has rated the selections... I proposed a simple method of removing the shortest of selections.

I have no doubt I could easily score a higher profit then the selections posted here as I would make a profit (vs the loss of the selections shown here).

I am happy for a value to be put on each selection .... I was just trying to help so the so called "secret stuff" wasn't being posted ....

You gain no credibility until the selections are posted here with minimum prices before the race. The comp would have enforced that thus giving needle/mr barry credibility.

Post deleted. Quoting a post which included shouting.

TheNeedle,

Please thank Mr Barry for me for supplying his raw selections to the forum today.

I too saw Jail Stait at the $19 and thought what an incredible value selection, knowing Mr Barry had it rated on top.

I had an e/w bet on it and was amazed at the $10 price for the place.

I'm sure many members are grateful to have a successful punters ratings, like Mr Barry's, posted on the forum.

Even if novice punters can pick up just 1 or 2 little tricks from the successful punters, it can only have a positive impact on their bottom line.