A nomination for 'Classic Posts'.

Beton.

While I agree with nearly everything you have said in this post and and all the others . I thank you for taking the time to explain your thinking.

However, in my view Mr Paretto never said that quote, or, to my knowledge, which is not very great he didn't.

Mr. Paretto was an economist, I called him a matamatician in an earlier thread and his claim to fame lie in the fact that it was he when studying the wealth distribution of England that the approx 80% of the wealth was in the hands of 20%

He did further research to see if this was repeated elsewhere which he found at the time it was. Now Paretto was mainly enter the Economic theory and because he was not very good at explaining the principal it was not taken seriously.

Others, picked up on it to see if the results affected otherthings in business and life.

Then in the fifties it became in vogue again and others put their spin on it.

eg. The Principal of Imbalance


------------- ---------------- ------------------- ------------

One researcher has this to say.

The main tenants of the Paretto theory are:

1. The doctrine of the Vital Few and trivial many

2. There are only a few things that ever produce important results

3. When something is working well, double or triple your bets. You may not know why its working well, but push as hard as you can while the forces of the universe are bending your way.

Pretty sure he was not talking about us and racing , but you can guess what he means.

4.Stop thinking 50 / 50

5. Think Skewness, expect 20% to equal 80%. Expect 80% to Equal 20%.

6. Look for the invisable 20% and the subterranean 20%
( Its there.-- Find it )

Unexpected success is one giveaway.

Develop the facility for mentally blocking out the 80%

eg

The easy Answer
The Obvious reality
The conventional wisdom
The prevailing consensus

None of these is what it seems or worth its weight in the basest of base metals.

These 80% are huge blots on the landscape, stopping you seeing the 20% beyond.

Look around these ugly blots, look over them, look beneath them, look through them.

However you do it, do it, ignore them, pretend they do not exist.

Free up your vision for the elusive 20%

Those who ignore the 80/20 Principal are doomed to average returns.

Author: Richard Koch
The 80/20 Principle

------------------------------------------

There you go, he was not talking about racing but some of his terminology might lead you to thinking so.

I am sure their is something in there for us all, even if it is only 20%.

No need to do my new thread on it now, it may as well die here.

Star

Sorry Star.
I should have said IMPLIED.
We are talking here of punting and how the paretto principle can be applied to horse racing. The Privateer in his mind applied the principle to his system of selecting his bets. He kept the vital few filters and binned the trivial many. Which is not 20/80. You keep the filters that give you the most improvement in return. You take the filters that negate your return and bin them. You take the filters that have some improvement on your return and assess them as follows. Do they assist with the best filters? Are they necessary to obtain the best filters? Or are they passive? If they are passive and do not help the main filters perform better then they get binned as well. Now the Privateer has done this. One question is "Has he done it correctly and successfully?" Another is "Can it be improved?" It may well be because he did it without the use of a computer. Which leads to two other questions. “Can we produce a better result?” and “Has the matrix changed?”

In the interim I am looking to see how my interpretation of his rules fair. Strictly on Saturdays and Metro midweek and a little relaxed weekdays all venues.
Today there are two relaxed selections Geelong 8 #3 and Wyong 7 #4
Tomorrow there are 4 strict selections MR6 #7, MR7 #4, SR3 #6 and SR6 #7. There are also another 18 shortlisted most which only just did not qualify. I will see if there is any value there.
Time will tell
Beton

I like your work! Beton,

I think we have a bit in common, I am doing all this for fun and to see where it goes.

I have done a lot of research work in business and have decided to see if any of that work has a place in racing. The basics of the Paretto Principle interests me, whether the matrix has changed is another matter.

Their are other research info I have got and hopefully that can be applied also. My main aim is to get out of the way of the mob, the trivial many and concentrate on the vital few.

See, thats the thinking behind the 80/20 not the actual numbers as you have recognised but the organised imbalance in nearly everything. Having said that it is still important to know as much as possible about a subject otherwise we will not be able to detect the vital few only what we know.

Here is an old Research Saying that one famous idenity obviously knew and he used it to explain a delicate situation he and the country were in. Only problem was that, time, the great truth teller, proved that he did not know as many knowns as he thought.

There are known knowns, These are things we know we know,

There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we know we don't know.

But there are also unknown unknowns. These are the things we don't know we don't know.

Please remember, everything I write is written with racing in mind, we just have to see how relevant it is. I do not want to go down the dusty track where others have gone before.

I have a lot of sayings and verses that remind me not to follow the herd to closely if it can be avoided. I try to be different, doesn't work often enough, but it suits my personality. I have never applied it to racing though, so we will see where this journey takes me.

It"s also a refresher course in life and business to remind me not to get stale and look at the obvious,I am trying to be different and see what others cannot. Trying to be a trend setter or early adopter and not a laggard.

Star





Star

There are also the things that you think you know but you only know a portion off. There are things you should know and there are things you are better off not knowing. There are a lot of things that are a complete waste of time knowing.

The biggest problem with gaining knowledge is how most gain it. Most learn and research in order to implement something. All theory and no experience and usually nothing gets implemented. The commitment gets tangled with getting all the facts and nothing gets started.

You are better to work out where you want to go, how you want to get there, find out enough to get started in that method and START. Take safe steps and learn on the way. You don't know everything but nobody knows all, everyday you learn more either in a good way or by trial and error. But you are DOING whereas most are GONNA. Beton

Great advice Beton, put simply and succinctly!

Wyong Track heavy would not qualify

Geelong 8 #3 (Unplaced )and Wyong 7 #4 (heavy no bet)
Tomorrow there are 4 strict selections MR6 #7 (3rd but no bet Heavy) , MR7 #4 (2nd But no bet heavy), SR3 #6 (scratched) and SR6 #7 (unplaced). There are also another 18 shortlisted most which only just did not qualify. I will see if there is any value there. (Of the 18, 16 have been run (2 Perth races) we have 4 1st, 5 placed and 7 unplaced. )
I like.

Today we have 3 clear picks for the Paretto system adapted for weekdays to trial, Townsville R4#5, R8#2 & R10#1, Two almost made it R7#4 and R9#4. Bet 1x3 EW if >$4. I am posting these to keep the waters clear. It was a Saturday only method. We will see if it will work midweek. Suitable races are hard to find.

Gee, it has been a long time since I graced this forum...

It's been really interesting to read about the Pareto Principle and how one tries to minimise their form analysis into a few pearls of statistical wisdom.

I was around and in contact with Privateer at the time of his postings and can remember what his base system was then. I also know that over time he did modify the system as he found some statistics became more meaningful than others.

I won't fully disclose the system out of respect for another punter but for what it is worth the statistics in the base system covered:

1. Average Prizemoney
2. Last Start Finish Position
3. Sportsman's Zipform Ratings
4. Career Place Percentage
5. Pre Post Price Range
6. Barrier
7. Career Starts
8. Weight Change from last start

As some of you have found through your investigations, Privateer has a simple punting strategy of 1 x win, 3 x place. You could consider him a professional place bettor.

And, finally his most sage piece of advice was to never, ever bet on a track worse than dead.

Enjoy putting the jigsaw together and thanks again for the thread of reminiscence...


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Thank you for your post Luckyboy. I am of the belief that the system has legs. I was of the belief that I had the system covered but your list throws some concern as throws up some items that I thought were considered and dismissed. Beton

beton,

I wouldn't be too concerned as I know Privateer did modify his system from this base over time.

I did likewise as I found a couple of the statistics were not as consistent as some others.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Luckyboy
Just going through your list with my comments in brackets.
1. Average Prizemoney (I have this clear)
2. Last Start Finish Position (I have this clear as with the 2LS)
3. Sportsman's Zipform Ratings (See below)
4. Career Place Percentage (I have this clear)
5. Pre Post Price Range (I have this clear)
6. Barrier (There was mention of this but other posts dismissed it)
7. Career Starts ( See below)
8. Weight Change from last start ( there was a mention of this and I keep an eye on it but have not included because it seemed to be dismissed)

Item 3 I have not picked up anything regarding this at all, however he does mention saddlecloth number.
Item 7 Again I have not seen this point at all, again this may be because of his rule on saddlecloth numbers.

I ended up with 13 rules which were more than Privateer's number, however some of the rules such as venue, day of week and price may well be givens.

Again I will not post the rules as the privateer said on many occasions that he did not want them posted. I simply went and read his material.

If you wish to enlighten me more my email is whughes at salternas dot com dot au. Thanks Beton

Townsville R4#5 (unpl), R8#2 (unpl) & R10#1 ( 1st no bet <$4), Two almost made it R7#4 and R9#4 Both unplaced) . Not a good day but I will keep in there.
Luckyboy I sent you an email that bounced back and then I resent it. Pls confirm or I will try again. Beton

He had originally mentioned barriers 1-7 but later dismissive of them. Thanks Barny for the post.

This is the hurdle with trying to work out barrier impact.
As a group it doesn't have as much impact as other filters, but it certainly does at certain tracks over certain distances.
I think it's the 1600m start at Caulfield, there is a rise before a tight turn and any horse stuck out wide has to travel three times the distance as a railer.
Wide barriers are a huge disadvantage.
There are many individual cases where the barrier draw is crucial, but as a group it doesn't make much impact because it evens out.

This is stats Sydney Metro <$10 circa 2004 which only confirms that barriers do not matter with quality horses. When you add all horses it halves the strike rate. The spike in the ROI on the outer B10+ can only be from odds.
Barrier Wins Starts StrikeRate ROI
1 230 1262 18.23% 88.75%
2 241 1291 18.67% 80.70%
3 256 1306 19.60% 87.43%
4 241 1301 18.52% 82.98%
5 237 1253 18.91% 85.17%
6 204 1189 17.16% 79.99%
7 194 1125 17.24% 82.14%
8 158 948 16.67% 81.81%
9 143 820 17.44% 89.07%
10 108 567 19.05% 101.99%
11 65 378 17.20% 92.99%
12 46 249 18.47% 110.29%
13 22 111 19.82% 121.74%
14 7 65 10.77% 68.46%
15 4 13 30.77% 209.62%
16 2 12 16.67% 112.50%
17 0 3 0.00% 0.00%
18 0 3 0.00% 0.00%

Having said this there is definate bias at tracks at specific distances and rail positions. In UK Racing I read somewhere that you can get a book with all the bias data. Some trainers scratch purely on drawing certain barriers. From memory some tracks were the outer, others the inner and some had the middle barriers. Beton

I've followed Privateer's selection method with a great deal of interest, and for the life of me I cannot see how it can produce a profit.

Hi Barny,

My tip would be that he uses these factors along with extensive racing knowledge to seek high quality value selections.

The key to his approach is the discipline to bet only once a week when the conditions are perfect and most predictable.

Before you go on about predictability and how perfect the market is, remember favourites only win 30% of the time and LOSE 70% of the time. There's money/margins to be had.

The barrier statistic needs to be looked at from the perspective that if you have 2 horses identified from your selection method and one has drawn barrier 6 and the other barrier 12, what does your logic tell you?

The issue as later described by Privateer as 'didn't figure quite as prominently', had more to with field size, than barrier from my own analysis.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Beton: Email received and reply sent. All the best.

Only one contender today SR4#5. Track Slow no bet. Weekdays is a monitoring exercise to see if there is any merit in extending the system into weeksdays.

I have had a few days away. I thought this thread had died but Beton and Luckyboy have breathed some more life into it.

My best wishes to Beton , if anybody deserves some success with it , it will be him for all the effort he has put in. Good Luck.

Star

[QUOTE=Barny]Quote Privateer "On barriers, when I did my results analysis Iwas quite surprised that they didn't figure quite as prominently as I thoughtthey would. After 30 years of punting the mugs way it took me a lot of selfdiscipline to learn to accept what the stats told me and not what my brain wassaying."

-------------------

Thats an interesting point Barny. Infact, the more research I do, the more I find that things I considered fairly consistent are not proving that way with more detailed research.

I think our friend Mr Privateer has really opened up a Pandora's Box. I am now starting to get an inkling that we cannot accept anything as gospel and to me now, nothing is sacred and everything is fair game.

Thanks to all for adding to this thread.

Star

Hi Star
So if Joe Public considers your same things are fairly consistent, but they indeed aren't, then they would have applied the same bias to them as you did. I think it was Woof43 who handicaps the handicappers! But it relates best to certain conditions including tracks & distances... you just have to find which ones.
It would be good if you could poll the punters ( sounds painful) and list their top dozen decision factors ranked in order for picking winners. Then, watch for the highest ranked to fail consistently in certain conditions.
This should flush out false favs leaving overlays to gather up in a net... backing or laying :)
I like the way you get things rolling Star. Keep up the good work & inquisitive mind! :)

Getting things started is easy for me, it is the finishing that I have problems with.

But true Rails, When I started this thread that was what I was aiming at, but then Privateer's old thread appeared which maybe applied the same thinking.

You have explained this much better then my foggy mind could, but what I have written and my Quotes from various sources that I have put in this thread are very much in my mind and I still think are worth investigating further until they are killed off.

Star

Following up on Rails Run post I thought I would apply some more thoughts to think outside the square. This is for rails and anybody else who might appreciate it.

it is put in to lighten the thread abit, but may also be thought provoking. it has helped me in the past while researching non racing issues. Maybe it might have a place here too.

THE CALF PATH

Following up on Rails Run post I thought I would apply some more thoughts to think outside the square. This is for Rails and anybody else who might appreciate it.

It is put in to lighten the thread a bit, but may also be thought provoking. It has helped me in the past while researching non racing issues. Maybe it might have a place here too.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------


THE CALF PATH


One day, through the primeval wood
A calf walked home, as good calves should;
but made a trail all bent askew,
A crooked trail as all calves do.

Since then two hundred years have fled,
And I infer, the calf is dead.
But still he left behind his trail.
And thereby hangs my moral tale.

The trail was taken up the next day
By a lone dog that passed that way;
And then a wise bell-wether sheep
Pursued then trail o'er vale and sleep
And drew the flock behind him too,
as good bell-wethers always do.

And from that day o'er hill and glade,
Through those old woods a path was made,
And many men would in and out,
And dodged and turned and bent about
And uttered words of righteous wrath
because 'twas such a crooked path.

But still yhey followed - do not laugh,
The first migrations of that calf,
And through this winding wood-way stalked,
Because he wobbled when he walked.

This forest path became a lane,
That bent and turned and turned again,
This crooked lane became a road,
Where many a poor horse with his load
Toiled on beneath the burning sun,
And travelled some three miles in one,
And thus a century and a half
Thet trod the footsteps of that calf.

The years passed on in swiftness fleet,
The road became a village street,
And this before men were aware,
A city's crowded thoroughfare.

And soon the central street was this
Of a renownwd metropolis,
And men two centries and a half
'trod in the footsteps of that calf.

each day a hundred thousan rout,
Followed this zig zag calf about,
And o'er crooked journey went
The traffic of the continent.

A hundred thousand men were led,
By one calf three centuries dead,
They followed still his crooked way,
And lost one hundred years a day,
For such reverence is lent,
To well estabisshed precedent.

A moral lesson this might teach,
Where I ordained and called to preach,
For men are proned to go it blind,
Along the calf paths of the mind,
And work away from sun to sun,
To do what other men have done.

They follow in the beaten track,
And out and in and back and forth,
And still their devious path that others do,
They keep the path a sacred groove,
Along which all their lives they move.

And how wise old wood-gods laugh,
Who saw the first primeval calf,
Ah, many things this tale might teach,
But I am not ordained to preach.

Sam Walker Ross, 1895


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Maybe the above helps LG understand my thinking as well.

Star

Yesterday there were no contenders. Today there was. I got back just at the off and there were only 7 runners -so no bet. It won $5.50 on the TAB. Tomorrow we have 4 clear contenders plus a clear contender in Adelaide and one in Perth. There are also 13 near contenders (just miss one filter) that I have my eye on.
SR6#3, BR4#7, MR6#3,MR7#7. AR6#1. and PR4#5. =>$4 no wet. I have some original rules which I still have incorporate later.

Thanks to Luckyboy, rails, Star, CP, TS and Barny for their support.

I have suggested a number of times, that you need to identify the strongest variables for the Favourite in each race and then the gap/strength between it the 2nd Favourite.

Once your identified your Variables for todays race Favourite, one would then do a percentile rank of all horses based on those identified Variables, then you normalise the difference of each of the percentile ranks. One would do that over an over for hundreds of actual races based on those variables and you would generally have an idea of the % wagered on each entrant.

Once you know the Variables that made todays race Favourite. It is then a matter of running your other 140 odd variables or whatever number you have in a multi variate analysis and what you will find is a group of other variables that will outperform todays race Favorite variable.

And if you were to do something like above, you start all your analysis from races that have first starters or those with limited form.

Best of luck Beton!

Looks like Flemington and Perth would be the place to invest with Dead and Good tracks respectively.

Question: Does anyone recall Privateer's thoughts regarding the straight track at Flemington? I'd imagine he wouldn't be the biggest fan being such a disciplined investor and the variables it can provide at times.

Hi Beton,

Don't be discouraged by yesterday's results, a few points I noted:

1/ Be wary of horses having their first go on the straight track, unless you can secure massive overs (at least 3 points over your assessed price)

2/ Resumers - I noted two resumers yesterday, both without a trial or any means of gaging fitness levels.

3/ 3yo races - I find the form often unreliable as some horses don't hold form as well and others improve dramatically run to run.

This is probably all stuff that you know, however I thought I'd throw in a few things I noticed that might improve your systematic approach.

Best of luck!!!

G'day fellas (and any ladies that may be posting or reading!)

Yep, I'm still breathing AND still having a bet. Not in the amounts as I was previously but still ticking along well. I've spent a fair bit of time in China over the past few years. My wife is Chinese and a doctor, she was tempted back there to work on a lucrative contract. Now we're back in Oz (Brisbane) and she has diversified into another field with great success.

I must say it was great to see posts from some of my old mates like Wise One and Luckyboy. Darky and Moeee - nothing changes does it? :)

I'm not going to re-hash what has already been written throughout the thread and nowadays I don't have the time to devote to the site to be able to reply as often as I'd like so:

*Wet track means slow and heavy.
*Check pre post betting market in Friday's paper...look at those $11 and
under
*Bet on quality races only! This usually means Saturdays. It certainly does
not mean midweek handicaps at places like Wyong.
*Average prizemoney - look at the top 5 average earnings. (TIP: Use the average prizemoney earnings to establish the quality of a race. Set yourself a bottom limit. I do)
* Trackwork and barrier trial results are gold. The Spotsman is my bible for those. The key to trackwork though is not the overall time recorded for a distance, rather the speed of the sectionals.

Some posters are quite correct. For any method (I hate the term "system") of punting, your mindset be flexible enough (and tough enough) to change things up or down or add or delete criteria as required. It is impossible to set things in concrete then expect them to be successful over an extended period. My basic method still works although with some variations with the passage of time.

If there are any questions, I'll try to get back to answering them.

Today? I posted Proisir but who knows? I'm not a fan of the Valley.

The Big One: How do they beat Americain and Dunaden? I was taken with Winchester's run in the Caulfield Cup though. Flemington will suit him.

Whatever you do, have fun and punt sensibly.

Cheers

Privateer

Hi Privateer, I read your posts on Pareto many, many times over, it's as if I was in the library sitting next to you. I think I got the gist where you outlined important recurring stats in good fields were a pointer to realistic chances in the race. Pre-Post and Fitness seemed to be your top 2, and I was interested in reading about trackwork and trials .....

Quote "But should mention that my extensive trackwork and trial logs wouldn't fall under the heading of "basic handicapping" and they are the key to this little method."

That sort of shut me out of any further involvement with your method as I simply wouldn't know what to look for. Any further heads up on this topic would be greatly appreciated.

I think the handicapper has already beaten them over the 3200 trip. I'll be laying both to my maximum liability. Americain has been very good to me the last two years firstly as a winner of the Cup and then as a loser last year. I backed Dunaden as my anchor in the trifecta last year ( successfully ) but will be laying him this year.

I was wondering
 

I was wishing to know if you used the class factor in the sportsmen as to not backing horses dropping in class based on their assessment, I have not done the research but - the 92% is this horses rising in class get beaten.

CHANGE
 

That should be rising in class not dropping- sorry dont know how i let that pass.

HI Privateer

Good to see you are still around and having a bet. No doubt you are looking forward to next week’s racing.

As for me, I have moved to Perth, and still have a bet most weekends, but due work commitments don’t have the time follow them as closely as I used too.

As always I look forward to reading your postings

Wise One

His Wise One. Hope you are keeping well old mate.

Barny - trackwork is quite subjective. I have been a student for many years and feel I am able to make an assessment of a horses chances based on its work on the track. There are a few do's and don't though:

* Use The Sportsman
* Avoid wet track times
* Don't consider times recorded on dirt or sand (or at Broadmeadow)
* It is not just the overall time I look for. I like a good time but with fast
last 400/600 metres. I base that on the fact that the last 400/600 of
a race is often where it is won. The ability to come home fast is essential.
As an example, Nechita ran 800m in 46.11, last 400 in 21.33 last
Tuesday. Sensational work. She of course won today.

Just before they jump in the next at Flemington, Homuchdoyouloveme and
Miss Marx have both worked very well this week.

Yeah Miss Marx is one I like today