Kapeesh.

I usually go by +13 or -13.
Not a big fan anything other than AFL.

Week 5

All times EDST

NRL Rd2
Fri 7:30 PM Cowboys v Bulldogs
Sat 5:30 PM Raiders v Knights
Sat 7:30 PM Dragons v Storm
Sat 8:30 PM Broncos v Warriors
Sun 2:30 PM Sea Eagles v Sharks
Sun 3:00 PM Souths v Eels
Sun 3:00 PM Panthers v Roosters

Super12 Rd 4
Fri 5:35 PM Chiefs v Reds
Sat 3:30 PM Hurricanes v Bulls
Sat 5:35 PM Blues v Crusaders
Sat 7:40 PM Waratahs v Stormers
Sun 2:00 AM Cats v Brumbies
Sun 4:10 AM Sharks v Highlanders

You can post bets as soon as any of the 3 bookies put up odds. New tipsters please read the rules in the opening post of the thread.

OB: $477.00

All S12

Bet7: Chiefs win $10 @ $1.26 ($12.60)
Bet8: Hurricanes win $10 @ $1.20 ($12.00)
Bet9: Waratahs win $20 @ $1.50 ($30.00)
Bet 10: Sharks win $10 @ $1.60 ($16.00)
Bet 11: Multi -
Chiefs $1.26
Hurricanes $1.20
Crusaders $1.47
Waratahs $1.50
Brumbies $1.24
Sharks $1.60 (all to win)
$10 @ $6.61 ($66.15)

CB $417.00

Can I bet on 6 nations games (or is it Nations6 now?) - it feels as though it may be agains the spirit of the rules. Wouldn't mind having a wager on Ireland tho.

Ummm, no mofo, that's not in the comp. And also, there is a limit of 5 legs in multi bets. Sorry.

Sorry, remove the multi from the bets. I'll redo it later.

Okay, so these are your bets:

OB: $477.00

All S12
Bet7: Chiefs win $10 @ $1.26 ($12.60)
Bet8: Hurricanes win $10 @ $1.20 ($12.00)
Bet9: Waratahs win $20 @ $1.50 ($30.00)
Bet 10: Sharks win $10 @ $1.60 ($16.00)

CB $427.00

Bet 12
Opening Balance $280.90
NRL Canberra Raiders +1.5=$1.45
S12 Act Brumbies -4.5=$1.42
S12 Hurricanes -5.5=$1.42
Dividend $2.93 X $50.00=$146.50 (sport odds)
Closing balance $230.90
Cheers

OB $491.95 (13)

MULTI:
Broncos -9.5 - $1.90
x
Bulldogs -5.5 - $2.40
x
Cronulla +5.5 - $2.05
x
Eels +12.5 - $1.12
x
Panthers WIN - $1.58

$20 @ $16.54

= $330.80

MULTI:
Brumbies -11.5 - $1.90
x
Stormers +12.5 - $1.41
x
Blues WIN - $2.70

$30 @ $7.23

= $216.90


MULTI:
Bulldogs 13+ - $3.00
x
Broncos 13+ - $2.25
x
Cronulla WIN - $2.65
x
Brumbies 13+ - $2.00
x
Stormers WIN - $2.55

$10 @ $91.23

= $912.30

MULTI
Bulls +18.5 - $1.57
x
Stormers +11.5 - $1.46

$20 @ $2.29

= $45.80

Closing Balance $401.95 (17)

Opening Balance $395


Line bets Sportsodds.com

Chiefs -10.5 to beat Reds $50

Crusaders -5.5 to beat Blues $50

Closing Balance $295

ONCE AGAIN i've forgotten to mention that my bets are from sportodds.com

That's okay Chuck.

Opening Balance $412.60

Bet 9
Multi (IAS)
NRL: Canberra ($1.50)
NRL: Manly ($1.50)
$10 @ $2.25 ($22.50)

Closing Balance $402.60

Bet 13 (Sportodds.com)

Opening Balance: $683.50

Multi Bet:

• NRL - North Queensland +14.5 $1.31 Vs Bulldogs
  x
• S12 - Chiefs -4.5 $1.47 Vs Reds
  x
• S12 - Hurricanes -5.5 $1.42 Vs Bulls
  x
• NRL - Raiders $1.48 Vs Knights
  x
• S12 - Waratahs +6.5 $1.25 Vs Stormers

Return: $5.05 x Bet: $50.00 = $252.50

Closing Balance: $633.50

Bet 14 (Sportodds.com)

Opening Balance: $633.50

Multi Bet:

• S12 - Chiefs 1st scoring play TRY $4.25 Vs Reds
  x
• S12 - Waratahs 1st scoring play TRY $4.25 Vs Stormers
  x
• NRL - Raiders 1st scoring play TRY $2.10 Vs Knights

Return: $37.93 x Bet: $10.00 = $379.30

Closing Balance: $623.50

Opening balance $402.60

Bet 10
Multi (sportodds)
NRL: Canberra +7.5 start ($1.23)
NRL: Manly +7.5 start ($1.25)
$20 @ $1.54 ($30.75)

Bet 11
Multi (sportodds)
NRL: Canberra +7.5 start ($1.23)
NRL: Manly +7.5 start ($1.25)
NRL: Penrith +7.5 start ($1.28)
S12: Hurricanes to win ($1.20)
S12: Waratahs +7.5 start (+1.22)
$10 @ $2.88 ($28.80)

Closing balance $372.60

sPORTZ, COULD U PLEASE TELL ME WHO ON EARTH IS OFFERING +7.5 FOR CANBERRA AND +7.5 FOR MANLY BECAUSE IM JUST GOING TO THE BANK TO BORROW A HUNDRED MILLION FOR THE ALL UP?

sportodds.com let you pick your own start. Just click on the odds under 'Line' and it gives you odds for each start. Of course the price goes up or down accordingly. You'll notice that Canberra with 7.5 start is only $1.23, not the regular $1.90.

Opening Balance $500BET 1 (IAS)
Multi
NRL: Canberra 1.50
NRL: Manly 1.50
NRL: Penrith 1.53

$50 @ 3.44 (172.00)

Closing Balance $450

mmmm - Interesting!! CHEERS

Bet 13
OB $230.90
NRL Bulldogs -9.5=$2.35
NRL Souths +10.5=$1.48
NRL Canberra -3.5=$1.60
S12 Crusaders -13.5=$3.05
S12 Brumbies -13.5=$2.10
All up Dividend $35.64 X $10=$356.40
CB $220.90
Cheers

Opening balance $372.60

Bet 12
Multi (IAS)
NRL: Canberra ($1.50)
NRL: Manly ($1.50)
NRL: Penrith ($1.53)
$10 @ 3.44 ($34.40)

Closing balance $362.60

Opening Balance: $416.10

bet 7 sportoods
NRL [bulldogs/cowboysgame]
Willy Tonga 1st try scorer $20 @ $12.00 = $240.00

bet 8 sportodds
NRL [bulldogs/cowboys game]
Andrew Ryan 1st try scorer $10 @ $26.00 = $260.00


Closing Balance: $386.10

Opening Balance: $386.10

bet 9 multi, sportodds :

NRL Bulldogs + 8.5 [$1.23]
NRL Broncos + 4.5 ****$1.22]

$50 @ $1.50 = $75.00

Closing Balance $336.10

Opening Balance : $336.10

bet 10 sportodds :

NRL Dragons/Storm, total game score: 47 and over $50 @ $1.90 = $95.00

Closing Balance $286.10

Does this mean he gets a 14.5 start for north queensland and still only gets $1.31?

Yours truly,AFL Mo.

Can I tell you,it's more than just interesting.IT IS ESSENTIAL.
Had a word to Norm Short about it.He didn't think it worthwhile.

Never mind Rabbitz.
You can always book in for next years comp!

Case of dejavu?
Haven't I seen this bet posted earlier?

Bet 14
OB $220.90
NRL Bulldogs Ht/Ft Double $2.15 X $20=$43.00(IAS BET)
CB $200.90

Certainly don't wish to tell you how to place your bets,but at those prices,I would have put a third selection in.Maybe even a fourth!

We shall see Mr. lets wait for the AFL
P.S. Have you backed St Kilda 20 times to win the premiership.

Opening balance $425

Bet 13: $20 on Cowboys +5.5 at $1.92

Closing balance $195

Didnt see too many people take Reds 13+ @ $10 (unitab)
Pass the crystal ball boys
cheers

Wow. What happened Mr J? The gremlins seem to have stolen $210 from your balance.

For real I had chiefs winning by 7.5, so had reds +10.5. I think it was sportz that suggested that maybe I should only pick the bets I'm more confident in (for the comp anyway). Don't like backing the reds so no bet for the comp. Sportz owes me an extra $20 or so, but what's $20 going to mean in 200 bets time.

Lol...yeh make that $405.

Sorry Mr J. All my fault. :D

Do you bet on every game, no matter how close the line? Or are there some games you won't touch because you think the bookies have it pretty much spot on? My ratings had the Chiefs winning by 9, so I considered the start of 10.5 a bit close. As I said earlier, I did think about backing the Reds, but in the end, just couldn't bring myself to back a team that had such a poor record in NZ.

Opening Balance :$286.10

bet 11 multi sportodds

NRL Knights Try [1st scoring play] $2.65 **
NRL broncos -3.5 $1.48

$30 @ $3.92 = $117.60

Closing Balance $256.10

Yeh if it's too close I won't bet. My buffer is around 2pts (use a spreadsheet, probally similiar to the formula the guys have posted up).

E.g. the canes and the bulls. My line is -11.89, it'd only be a bet if I could get -9 or +14.5. It's -/+ 12.5 so no bet.

That was the only non bet for s12 for me this week.

For NRL, the first line I saw for the cowboys was +4.5, which wasn't a bet for me (I had +3.3). That was offshore, when I look in Aus I saw +5.5 which makes it a bet.

The broncos I have at -11.02, but the line is -10, so no bet.

I like to have a 'perceived' edge of at least 5% on every bet. So in theory my system (if it works) should hit better than 5%ROI (55% winner against the line).

So it's not that I bet EVERYTHING, it's that I bet all games my system says I have an edge on (which seems to be most). Some games a no bets at one bookie but a bet at another. The +4.5 vs +5.5 for the cowboys was a great example. You can often find a pt better by shopping around the aussie and offshore books.

This week, my line vs the bookies:
NRL
Cowboys +3.3 vs +5.5
Raiders -7.88 vs -4.5 (this is what I got, most are -5 or -6).
Broncos -11.02 vs -10
Dragons -8.12 vs +1.5

S12
Chiefs -7.39 vs +10.5
Hurricanes -11.89 vs -12.5
Blues -4.95 vs +6
NSW -13.34 vs -5.5
Cats +4.26 vs +11
Sharks -1 vs -4.5

So some are close and some are far off. Results suggest that I do have a larger advantage on the larger overlays (ie the further my price is from the bookies), but not in proportion to how far it is actually off. E.g. my perceived 5% edges have hit 6-7% ROI. My perceived 20% edges have hit 10-15% ROI etc. Those figures are made up but it's just to show that when my lines are close to the bookies I'm more accurate than my perceived edge suggests, and when I'm way off from the bookies, I'm either way off or they are (and it's more often them than me).

"Wow. What happened Mr J? The gremlins seem to have stolen $210 from your balance."

How about we call it a handicap. If I managed to win this comp from that balance, I will be a very very very very very very happy man. Means I probally made 30-40 units :)