You know you're having a bad week when Jankovic leads 5-1 in the third set but goes on to lose.

A .5 unit loss for the day and a unit down for the week.

V Williams v Hantuchova
Round 4

V Williams $1.27 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit

Martinez v Peschke
Round 4

Martinez $1.45 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit


Daniilidou v Pennetta
Round 4

Daniilidou $1.45 @ SportingOdds 1 Unit

Rabbitz - the following link might help you out with bookmaker rules for tennis.


http://www.oddsandbets.com/bookmaker_rules_tennis.html


Floydy - Venus certainly has claims - will be an interesting match v Serena. Will also have to face Sharapova and maybe Clijster's to win. A tough call.

yeah didnt say it wouldnt be tough lol just not beyond the realms of possibility

Now this is strictly from the guts but at the beginning when i saw the draw i had the feelin that Whoopi might beat Smokin Joe ..but as I said it just a feelin I got

Round 3 bet:

Safina ($5.65) over Davenport

If I was a gamblin man Id be tempted to have a crack at a
Daniilidou/Martinez double @1.92

well that was great result

0-2 thats talent ...Sorry for clogging up your thread with s*** Marco I checked the form and they looked like the likely results so I thought I display some of my tipping prowess ...my apologies again

Hows $6.10 on UNITAB,woo hoo

Nice Divi Rabs...... woo hooo indeed

On a bit of a poor run at the moment. A loss of 1.73 units yesterday. Sorry about the lack of match info - will be back in Perth and back to normal posts in a day or two.


Clijsters v Davenport
Round 4

Clijsters $1.70 @ Pinnacle 1 unit

Rabbitz - nice call, well done. Have you considered a Betfair account? Laying Serena would have returned around $12.00 yesterday.

THe bookies are laughing again
Why was clijsters favourite and a firming one at that
Davenport looked vulnerable when she lost the second set but then regrouped and WHAM,Game set match
Cheers

I said earlier in this thread that I thought Venus (providing her mind was on the job) had a chance in this tourney ...Well Ill take that back partially because I watched a bit more of her the other day and as usual the unforced errors were flowing like champagne and mostly because I think Pierce injury free (apparently ) and in her current form might just chew her up and spit her out . I know I went 0-2 the other night tipping .(I didnt back them)
Ive been backing favourites only lately and its been working well for me so should stick to the winning formula .....But Ive just seen 2.98 at betfair and Im thinking this might just be a good way to end a months punting .....
Im very open to any comment positive or negative

UPDATE
 

Bets 234; Won 144; Lost 90
Units Staked: 206.5 units; Won 15.96 units; ROI 7.7%


The poor run continues with Clijsters losing. I don't think there'll be too many more Wimbledon bets - I'll wait for the 'sanity' of the hardcourt season.

The 7.7% represents a solid 'losing streak' but these are inevitable. Though very disappointing, it's certainly not my worst and won't be the last (but winning streaks will also occur).

My strike rate is also very poor at the moment.

Moreover, this also represents my worst Grand Slam iresult in my 18 month history so I'll have to improve my grass game (might be my poor volley?!)

No excuses though.

Besides My normal win bet on Pierce I invested another $20 on her
Pierce to win the Title
$12.32- TO WIN $500(net of commission)
Pierce to win 2-0
$7.68(the remainderof$20)TO WIN $36.48

In saying all that Ive been well wrong before today :)

Good afternoon everyone. Davenport was obviously the best bet of last night. To win long-term you need to ignore the bookies, and think about "class" The result was not "insane" and if you truly are hoping for "sanity" on the hardcourts you may be disappointed Marco. Davenport is World number 1 and top seed. She has won three majors and was in the final in Melbourne only this year. At Wimbledon she has been champion, runner-up, twice semi-finalist and three times in the Quarters (first time 11 years ago!!!!!). Clijsters has NEVER won a major and only once made it into the last 4 at Wimbledon PLUS she has been injured for most of the past year and is carrying plenty of "emotional baggage". Seen like this there would be no way you could have her favourite over Davenport IN A MAJOR.
Until proven otherwise, players (just like racehorses) who perennially underperform, are to be avoided on ALL surfaces. I know this is WTA territory, but likewise, one-dimensional second stringers like Ancic,Karlovic etc etc are not to be trusted with OUR money. Sticking with class really does pay. Cheers and good luck.

There ya go well wrong again.
Didnt stay up to watch venus and mary but a quick look at the stats tells me why I did my dosh ...Venus 84% of first serves in thats hard to get on top of ........... and 14 only unforced errors ..about half her usual rate .....ah well back to the drawing board

Punter57 - thanks for your post.

Some people may disagree with me, but I found your post a tad amusing. I posted my bet some 36 hours before the game so I'm just wondering why you didn't post your very welcome opinion prior to the game being played. It certainly would have been helpful.

Perhaps you do most of your betting at Hindsight.com (tongue in cheek).

As I said, all opinions are valid but they're not much use to anybody and achieve very little if the race has already been run. We live in a democracy so you can do as you want but feel free to list pre-post selections as I'm sure we can all benefit from your skills.

Have you looked at the SFs? What percentage chance/odds do you give Davenport over Mauresmo? Or Sharapova v Williams? Any thoughts on who, at this stage, is going to win outright and what odds are reasonable?

If you would like me to post the method/statistical reasoning that underlies my betting on the Clijster's match I'll be more than happy to do so. As it involves a fair bit of detail it might be easier to do this off the thread. Feel free to email me (woof9898@yahoo.com.au).

On the day I was wrong and you were right. As I said I have no excuses.

Thanks once again.

Don't worry Marco, you weren't the only one that was a tad amused ;)

Hello everyone. It's heartening that even when losing money you can STILL be amused. I don't bet (often) nor give advice on individual women's matches, but will have a bet if I think the bookies have it wrong. By this I don't mean having Davenport at $1.35 when she should be $1.25 against Mauresmo but waiting until they actually have it the wrong way round.
Since I agree with the bookies on the two women's semis there will be no bets. If Davenport comes up as underdog for the final then she MAY be a bet.
Marco, I feel like I've lead you to the water and now you want me to tell you WHEN to drink as well. Let's go back to my (hilarious) comments about underperformers ( a few posts earlier) and ask a bystander, Floydyboy, how he feels, knowing that Pierce is exactly the type of choker/ gonna-be I was talking about (to be avoided).
When I was but a student and needed to learn THE PRINCIPLES of my profession, I read and listened until I got it right. Subsequently I do not need to ring my old tutors/profs to get them to tell me EXACTLY what I should do or what THEY would do on every individual project or in every single instance, as I'm sure they would NOT be amused!!!. Would you Sparkus8 or Marco???
Anyway, talk to you again soon(see ATP thread). Good luck regardless, and glad to have brought some humour your way.P57

Mate I congratulate you on being able to put that much garbage into such a confined space.

This is a place to discuss and share tips, not somewhere you come in hours after the fact saying 'well she was obviously the best bet'. If you have something to contribute do it before the match please, otherwise start your own thread for your rantings.

Cheers,

Sparks

Well said Sparkus


Dear Professor57
Having been to college, my tutors and profs were qualified and proven individuals who presented what they wanted us to learn or showed us the direction. So far your qualifications are:

• “I don't bet”
• picks 0 = wins 0
• before match advice = nothing
• betting history = nothing
• methodology of picking winners = counterproductive, obstruent, retardative, after the fact ramblings about class and vollying ability

Your qualifications are therefore somewhere between 0 and nothing.


Marco is kindly giving his time to present a forum on a sport that has very rarely been tackled in a professional manner. He has made it perfectly clear to us that the expectation rate of his picks is to be close to 10%. As anyone who bets professionally knows, you have good weeks and bad weeks. Where were you when he went 4 from 5 at Indian Wells, 5/5 at Warsaw, 4/4 at Strasbourg etc etc.

Marco makes his living on his picks. You should stick to your day job.

The world and these forums do not need negative bigots. Take the advice given and start your own thread. Hindsight.com sounds like a very good place for you.


Karla

Good morning all. Well K909,gad to see you're as feisty as ever.And you too Sparkus8
I did say the women were not my favoured bets BUT if you recall our little run-in about a month ago.(On ATP thread) you might recall my succinct comment that, while all and sundry were proposing Karlovic,Ancic,Schrichipan,the other Johansson,Stepanek etc etc as "the dangers" I said. "The winners at Wimbledon will be the same players IN GENERAL who also win at Flushing meadows and in Melbourne" This was post 241 (page 10) on that thread.
In the women we now have the "surprise" 2time U.S./Wimbledon winner in the final and probably(??) the other non-French Open multi-winner. In the men there were only 5 starters who have won the U.S. or Australian and guess what???? Safin got nervous but T. Johansson DIDN'T!!!! Neither did Federer(1 U.S., 1 Australian) or Roddick (1 U.S.) or Hewitt (1 U.S.). All the gonna bes and will bes and should bes are lying by the roadside and you are telling ME I didn't let you know early enough!!!! Good one! I'm sure you'll be gracious enough to admit that you SHOULD have followed that early advice,lads. Perhaps you'll give it some thought next June when you all start reminding us that Wimbledon is for "specialists". Or maybe you'll pick up something from the "Professor" and dodge the second-raters and no hopers.
Finally; to win in the long term punting on "two-horse" races you have to avoid the losers. So, I expected Sharapova to win BUT wouldn't bet her because she was fav. Thus a losing bet is avoided. Likewise if Davenport wins I'll have avoided another OR when she does win I'll STILL be ahead by passing on the Russian!! Got it yet? Too many bats is fatal!!! Regardless; successful punting to you all.

Suggetsion Box
 

I received a few emails during my week off with some suggestions so I'll make a couple of changes. I'll start using fractional Kelly betting for my staking with the maximum bet being 2 units (with fractions thereof). This is the method I personally use and its shown greater returns than the flat bets used on this thread.

For anyone who doesn't understand Kelly betting just "Google" the phrase.

I'll also introduce outrights but will use an all-up method. That is, if I think Williams will win, I'll bet on her in the First Round (or whatever Round I think best) at match odds and roll over the winnings in each round. Betting this way means you can reassess the player each round and 'stop' the bet at any point rather than being locked in as with the outright. You can sometimes get superior odds this way but the opposite is also true. You tend to get lower odds backing round by round when favourites get knocked out. The max. initial stake for outrights will also be 2 units but the "rolled over" or reinvested stake may obviously be more than this figure.

I'll also do weekly updates rather than daily updates on ROI etc as this seemed to be the consensus opinion.

Hope all that makes sense.

The WTA is back after a week off for The Fed Cup - yahoo!

http://www.wtamodena.com/2005/

We're back on clay for a brief spell at the low ranking (Tier IV) Modena Open in Italy. An average field with limited betting opportunities. However there's good live-scoring for such a small tourney.

The bookies will probably be slow this week as per usual.


Ondraskova V Cervanova
Round 1

Ondraskova recently won the Zagreb clay challenger against a field of similar quality opponents to Cervanova. Prior to Zagreb she made the final of the Prague clay tournament where she lost a close match to Safina. Cervanova is a patchy player who's been in terrible form lately losing 5 of her last 6 games. She favours clay courts but will need to be at her best to win.

Ondraskova $1.43 @ Centrebet 1.2 units
(better prices at smaller bookies and may be better when Pinnacle/5Dimes list)

Loit v Bondarenko
Round 1

A small bet on Loit who is the better player but is known to put in the occassional poor game. Loit played the Marseille clay challenger as a warm up while Bondarenko is coming straight of grass.

Loit $1.60 @ Centrebet 0.2 units

A couple of good wins last night with both players available at better prices.


Sanchez Lorenzo v Sucha
Round 1

Sucha's on a 7 game losing streak dating back to April and while Sanchez Lorenzo's results have been mixed, she favours clay courts as evidenced by a recent win over Myskina. The Spaniard has better form and a better game on the dirt.

Sanchez Lorenzo $1.63 @ Pinnacle 0.5 units


Garbin v Cohen-Aloro
Round 1

Should be close but a slight edge to Garbin who recently made the final of the Prostejov clay challenger. This is also a 'home' tournament for the popular Italian. Cohen Aloro can win but she prefers it faster and has floundered a bit on clay this season.

Garbin $1.78 @ Pinnacle 0.9 units



Vesnina v Matevzic
Round 1

Matevzic is on the comeback from an 18-month injury layoff. She's only played a handful of games since her return in May and hasn't been in good form. Vesnina is no superstar but came through qualies with a good win over Savchuk and has played a few clay challengers recently.

Vesnina $2.18 @ Pinnacle 0.7 units


Pastikova v Parra-Santonja
Round 1

Very hard to split these two so a bet on price. Pastikova has been on the clay challenger circuit while Santonja comes straight off grass. Both clay courters with similar records.

Pastikova $2.46 @ Pinnacle 0.4 units

Vesnina is no superstar

Wow - somebody thinks she is Marco.

Now $1.50 at Pinnacle and $1.40 elsewhere.

Pure Madness!

This is only the third time Vesnina's made the main draw of a WTA tournament (plus she only has one main draw win against wildcard Buyucackay in Istanbul).

The betting graphs at Betfair are interesting! (ie: click on players name). A very quick turnaround in price - wouldn't be surprised if there was a bit of inside injury knowledge at work.

If Vesnina wins I won't record the profit as I doubt many were quick enough to get the price (though I'm happy to record the loss if she loses).

Meanwhile, I'm off to arbitrage a very healthy position.

Two wins and two losses last night though to be fair and keep everyone happy I won't record Vesnina's win as her price unexpectedly collapsed.


Ondraskova V Szavay
Round 2

A follow on from yesterday the in-form Ondraskova (see yesterday's post) meets 16-year-old Szavay (ranked 301). Szavay likes clay but her 33/11 record has few games at this level. Most of her wins have come in Qualifiers or low-ranked Challengers. Yesterday was only her second WTA main draw win. Of course she can win today but the value is with Ondraskova who is a respectable 80/42 on clay.

Ondraskova $1.66 @ Pinnacle 1.3 units.

Smashnova v Parra Santonja
Round 2

Smashnova is the better player but she's known to play like a "fruit loop" at times. Both girls like the dirt but Smashnova's 112/64 record shades Santonja's 64/41 record in quality and quantity. A smallish bet on a small overlay.

Smashnova $1.38 @ Pinnacle 0.3 units.

Im not taking the p*** but what happened with Ondraskova ....After reading your write up I went and had a look at the form and thought that Ondraskova maybe should have been shorter than she was .....Fortunately for me I couldnt back her because I was still waiting for a result of my Vanek bet in rimini (Im betting all up till I reach $3< in divs) and I knew ************all about what was going on there so I had to pass backing any of the girls ...the youngn give her a bit of touch up according to the scores