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-   -   Lay Don Scott's Outsiders (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25652)

michaelg 6th March 2013 12:28 PM

Thanks, UB.

Today's selections ($999)

Newcastle
4/14, 15
5/14

Sandown
5/12

Eagle Farm
1/20
4/3
5/12

Gawler
3/7, 10, 11
5/2

Ascot
1/16
7/14
8/5, 16, 17

UselessBettor 6th March 2013 05:07 PM

looking good so far today.

michaelg 6th March 2013 05:30 PM

Yes, UB.

With two more races to go it's a touch over $185 in profit.

michaelg 6th March 2013 08:47 PM

A good day - from the 16 selections there were 16 smiles for a profit of $206.16.

Rinconpaul 7th March 2013 07:23 AM

Michael, can you check this please
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg

If from day one (7 Dec) I had bet a liabilitiy of the current $999 the method would be slightly over $13,000 in profit...so I'm hopeful. And it gives me a rush with the high liability.

There's been 2,396 smiles from 2441 selections for a 98% strike rate.
2441 - 2396 = 45 losses Therefore 45 x 999 = $44955 loss. Add to this the $13000 nett profit you made over and above this loss = $57955 nett turnover. Divide this by 2396 smiles = $24.18 nett profit per bet ($999 liability) Add commission to that as I assume your $13000 profit was after commission = $25.86 . Average odds then 39:1.
Your average return per bet of $24.18/$999 is markedly more than the Speed-E-Ficiary system return of $18.06(as of yesterday).
That's excellent!
Cheers RP

michaelg 7th March 2013 09:20 AM

Thanks, RP.

Because of the interest you've now created I've double-checked the results.

Laying for a $33 liability there have been (including the five days of testing period) 1674 selections for 1706 smiles for a profit of $431. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $13,000.

Laying for a $333 liability there have been 755 selections for 739 smiles for a profit of $2,040. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $6,000.

Laying for a $999 liability there have been 137 selections for 134 smiles for a loss of $690.

I must admit there was a close-call yesterday with Newcastle 6/12. The filter that prevented it from becoming an accident was that it was equal-fourth in the Unitab rankings.

Rinconpaul 7th March 2013 10:18 AM

Too Good MG
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Thanks, RP.
Laying for a $33 liability there have been (including the five days of testing period) 1674 selections for 1706 smiles for a profit of $431. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $13,000.

Laying for a $333 liability there have been 755 selections for 739 smiles for a profit of $2,040. If layed for the current $999 liability then the profit would have been approximately $6,000.

Laying for a $999 liability there have been 137 selections for 134 smiles for a loss of $690.
From the revised figures, if you started with a $999 liability on the 7th Dec till now (3 month anniversary today!) you would have made $18,478 profit! Well done.
Cheers RP

michaelg 7th March 2013 12:36 PM

Thanks, RP. If from day one the current filters had been applied I hope/expect the profit could have been better.

Today's selections ($999):

Wyong
5/3, 4, 16

Ballarat
1/8, 10
2/1, 4, 5
3/5

Beaudesert
1/14
3/7, 11
5/6, 9, 15, 17
7/8

Bordertown
3/11, 12
5/4
6/12

Pinjarra
1/2, 3, 8
4/4, 8, 9
5/3, 4, 5, 12
9/10

TheSchmile 7th March 2013 01:56 PM

T,C,D,W filters
 
Hi Michaelg,

I had an idea that it may be prudent (when you have a spere few hours/a day) to go over all selections with T,C,D,W in their form line.

I was thinking that even though they cause more accidents, it doesn't matter so long as they're losing at level stakes when laying.

michaelg 7th March 2013 03:34 PM

TheSchmile.

I did look at this at around the time you originally suggested these Form Filters. I did not persue it so I have to assume the filter was worthwhile, and I am also under the impression it increased the strike rate.


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