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- - Caulfield Cup Field (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=11360)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Duritz

Portland Singa is a massive chance. Huge overs. I've taken $390 the double Portland Singa into Dizelle in the Melbourne today just at the TAB. Huge overs.

As for Confectioner at the 3200, forget his Caulfield Cup run last year. Too bad a run to be indicative. In his other 2400m run, here's the expert form video comment on the run: "Eased, settled down at rear. Even tempo. well back hooked out straightening up, sprint home. Left too much to do." but still ran 4th beaten 3.4, making ground on the line. Then in the mackinnon, over 2000, whilst beaten soundly by Grand Armee he closed best of all for 2nd and thrashed the rest. Also, the way he stretched out the last bit and importantly after the line in the Yalumba indicated he had plenty left for further. Looks to be turning into a big, strong horse not unlike GRand Armee. In fact, is reminding me a lot of that horse now and is rating similarly.

I think the horse should run in the Mackinnon because he would annihilate them. would be the greatest cert of the carnival. However, David Hayes thinks that Confec will be best suited of all in the Melbourne Cup, so he obviously believes it'll get the trip.

All I am saying is that you can't say he won't get 3200 until he tries. To me he will get 2400 comfortably and a horse who does get a strong 2400m and who can settle, is a high class galloper with the ability to quicken, well, if you pot them when they're untried, do so at your own peril.

One who will eat up the trip though is Dizelle. I keep tipping that horse here, I hope some of you take notice because I think it will be a really good bet come Melbourne Cup day. Those who think it's a wet tracker, go back and watch the Turnbull run where she finished 11th, beaten 6 lens, on a dry track. Watch how well it goes. Here's the expert-form video comment of that run: "settled down midfield 4lens rails, got through between horses 3lens turn, bolting, looked a threat, badly checked when going for run 300, lost 4lens. Got going strongly late. Very stiff"

Will be very, very strong in the Melbourne, and very, very hard to beat.

Can't say I necessarily agree with you, but thanks for your answer and reasoning.

IMO if she runs in the Melbourne Cup, THE mare will give them all wind burn as she sails past them in the straight.

I wish you luck with Dizelle mate it is the other Hawkes runner that has me excited about the Melbourne Cup Railings has really made huge strides this prep matter of whether it can keep going or not. I have doubles with Sir Dex-Railings @ $360, Portland Singa-Railings @ $655, Vouvray-Railings @ $465 & Portland Singa-Vouvray @ $405 right now I am pretty happy with what I have might do one or two more over the next couple of days.

I amnot going to say that Makybe Diva can't win the Melbourne Cup she certainly can I will take my chances on it though.

I'm a huge fan of the Diva but am willing to bet against her with 58. Fact is she is maxed out with that weight, and in order to win would need everything to go right in the run (like the last 2 years) and then she would have enough in her to win by a head or so only. If anything at all goes wrong, with 58 she won't be able to win. Willing to pot her heavily actually. Not saying she "can't" win, but as I said, she'll need everything to go absolutely right. If a lightly weighted mare like Dizelle is within 2L of her turning, getting about 7kgs off her, the Diva won't be able to hold her out.

Hey Duritz,

Apparently, Eye Popper has a current rating of 111 (same scale as Timeform I suggest) in Japan. Pretty much suggests he's outclassed. I couldnt find his rating for 2004, which probably means he didnt rate 100 or better during the year.

BTW, Tosen Dandy has a 2005 rating of 103 & 2004 rating of 105 on the turf.

i have money on eye popper so hope he win lol

Thanks Chief. I think both those horse's will be outclassed at the elite level. Might be a lower race in there for Tosen Dandy, grinded away like a possible provincial Cup winner at Cranbourne, that looks his level.

Eye Popper's 111 might translate to a race like the Sandown Classic perhaps?

Apparently Lachlan River is in & Fight Your Corner is out.

Adds a bit more spice.

I'm hoping there might be some genuine pace on. With two known one-pacers (Mummify & Plastered) drawn wide, they may have no option but to roll forward. I seriously doubt either can win by taking a sit. If one of the imports is a front-runner, it could be a closer's race.

I'm might be leaning towards Sir Dex. Vastly improved this year. I initially thought his first-up win was flukey, but now has enough good runs in the strongest company this prep as proof positive. Has always shown ability really.

Yep. Strong chance, will be run to suit him too. Still though, when all's said and done, if El Segundo repeats the Yalumba run, he wins.

I saw areplay of El Segundo's last win.
My goodness gracious me.
I am having a hundred on it for the Cu\aulfield Cup.
SPECIAL
Bit skinny at $3.40 but!