Be very careful Beberrycareful.
We all know what happened to Unlucky Phil.

2 winning bets out of 3 can be a losing day if the losing bet was a special and the investment was proportionately large.

But there's no logic in that moe. To be able to put more money on the winners, you have to know which ones the winners would be. If you knew which would win, then you'd not bet the ones that will lose and get a strikerate of 100%.

What you suggest is impossible.

Exactly Mr J.

But do you bet to chances or do you bet level stakes?
I believe you got about 5 winners and 8 losers over the weekend.
40% strike rate sounds good,so how come a losing weekend.

What I'm trying to get across is that maybe the evens Hawthorn at +43.5 was not as much value as the evens Geelong at +20.5
So I would think that Geelomg was worth investing a bit more on.
I realize that AFL is not your forte at the moment,and also I'm talking after the race,but sometimes there is logic underneath all the bull********.

Oops! Thanks moeee. My attempt at humour. Sorry Mr J. Hope you strike back with a vengeance.

"My attempt at humour."

I didn't realize it could be taken for anything else??!!?

Moe. I mainly bet against the spread, i.e. line/handicap betting. All bets a roughly even money, give or take 10 cents. Basically I have to pick more than 50% winners to profit.

I now realize what you are saying, ie I should size my bet according to perceived advantage. I don't do this simply because I have no idea how accurate my system is yet, and I don't want to overbet.

The right way to do this is to analyse past bets and see how they have performed in relation to the perceived advantage. Thing is you need a large sample size, which I don't have. I will go back and check it out anyway, see if it suggests anything.

Yeah, I use 3 different bet sizes, depending on my level of confidence for each bet.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-06-21 18:46 ]

With my puny bankroll compared to yours,not really for me to make decisions for you Mr J.
And you've probably been there done that,however.
Have you considered for example on the Saturday you might have 4 selections,all being at even money.
Instead of investing a grand on each,perhaps 1500,1200,800 and 500 or something similar.
Or better still bet to chances.
If you think Hawthorn might lose by 20 points and can get +43 at evens then back them as though you were getting +23 points on a genuine evens chance.This equates to about a 3's on chance so back them as if they were.
I realize you are still learning the ins and outs of AFL betting,as we all are,and maybe someones got some ideas to share rather than sharing their sorrows and successes.

Cheers Mo.

Moe I understand what you are saying, it just isn't wise for me to do that at this point. It's not really anything specific to AFL, it's just that I don't have a large enough sample to find out where my advantages lie and how accurate the perceived advantages are.

If I think one team should be +20, and they are +40, you'd think it would warrant a larger bet. Thing is maybe I have that match wrong, which means I'd be overbetting.

Until you can be reasonably sure of the size of your perceived advantages, using different stake sizes is quite dangerous.

Flatbetting at first is always the best way to go. If your system is profitable, then you will profit.

Nice to see you understood everything I was saying Mr J.
I'll endeavour to look more carefully into your posts from now.Sometimes it's the terminology and sometimes blinkers for the first time get in the way.:smile:

Cheers.