Still laughing over the dog racing stories! I had a dog that chased birds for 11 years then finally caught one. Just about scared him half to death.

To answer EI, Woodbine is dirt and turf. It's claim to fame is it's the only track in North America that runs thoroughbred and harness (standardbred) racing in the same day.

To respond to thevig, thanks for the lead. I only expect to use factor analysis to determine useful factors, not continue with that each race. I also want to do an analysis on 'soft facts' such as comments. One of my favourite books is Marketing Analysis: Methodological Foundations (a big, heavy statistics book -- isn't that sad?). It has some great stuff I have used successfully in other projects (this stuff is my day job too, isn't that even MORE sad?).

Then I expect to do some clustering to create deterministic functions that I can turn into rules -- or whatever. And if it all doesn't work I'll try something else. I enjoy the journey as much as the outcome.

If you come across anything else like this I would certainly look forward to those leads as well. Thanks!

Duck

Absolutely cannot agree MORE!

Sometimes your selection may be the favourite or the outsider, but the guts of then should be somewhat midrange to ensure your not chasing your tail on shortpriced losers. The correct mix of winners is very important...eg strike rate / average dividend.

Some solid results in this category last Sat. Master Pom $5.80 the win, Pedro Girl $5.10, Sammuka $5.60. And the usual spray of placegetters.

Tommorow, Wednesday, 7th Aug. among the lowest tabbed last start winners we have (with placegetter ratings on scale zero to four):

Canterbury

R4 #4 Delightful Success - 1
R5 #7 Ramadee - 0 - no bet
R6 #6 Back in Style - 1
R8 #2 Covina - 3
R9 #1 Blazing Arch - 1

Sandown

R1 #1 Living End - 3
R2 #2 Tarcoola Diamond - 1
R3 #1 Step Ahead - 2
R4 #2 My Lavinia - 2
R5 #4 Smoking Barrel - 1
R6 #11 Vocals - 0 - no bet
R7 #2 Skewiff - 3
R8 #1 Piermont - 4

Doomben

R1 #3 I'm Fighting - 1
R4 #1 Victory Ranger - 4
R5 #2 Carissma - 2
R6 #3 Foxmore - 3
R7 #2 Nattie - 2
R8 #5 Huey - 1

Gawler

R5 #1 So Say All of Us - 4
R6 #2 San Sonata - 4
R7 #3 Cullen Bay - 2

Skip Ramadee and Vocals.

I anticipate quite a few placegetters in this lot but probably not much value. Should be quite a few faves and second faves among them. Too many.

Bet level stakes to place on all but the zeros or on rated 1 and 2 only, or as you wish. Rated 4s have good strike rate but poor returns. Rated 1s a lower strike but for a better proportion of return.

In another bank bet each way $1/$4 on the rated 1s to set and forget or better still on those showing $5+ with a few minutes to jump.

Happy punting

Hermes

A typical performance today. After scratchings $18 outlay at level stakes, $15.30 return. But again the value was in my rated 1s: outlay at $1 win, $4 place on the rated 1s = $35, return = $42.90. As per my research, if you concentrate on the middle band of runners in the category, you'll win. Today, three winners and a placegetter out of seven. Today's best: Back In Style: $7.70 win. $3.50 place.

Hope you're ahead

Hermes

1. Take the lowest numbered last start winner, all races, any races.
2. Eliminate any rank outsiders but leave long shots with even a slim chance.
3. Eliminate all TAB number 1's.
4. Bet level stakes to win.

Strike rate 21%
POT = 6%

Places gets to break even.

Better still, eliminate all TAB numbers 1, 2, 3. Lower strike rate, less action, better POT. Also shows small but steady POT on places.

Or, bet to win by TAB number, so $4 for TAB 4 etc. Assumes that the lower the TAB the better the return, on average. (Actually i added the wrong columns in the spread sheet to find....) Yields 13% POT.

But everything depends on rule 2. distinguishing between a no-hoper and a slim chance.

Hermes

Otherwise:

Take all the lowest tabbed last start winners. Bet level stakes to win on any showing between $5 and $18 to win a minute to jump. You'll come out ahead. Works on place bets also but POT is much better on wins.

Hermes

Also, in your sample there, when you say eliminate the TAB 1's, if you have a 1 and an 11 say in a race, do you then back the 11, or throw out the race altogether?

Nice work, keep it up.

Couple of other quick questions - out of interest what is the POT for all last start winners?

How about those that ran recently if you have that?

Thanks,

BT

Speaking of favourites...

We have heard that 30% of favourites finish first. Does anyone know what the morning line looked like for the 30% and the 70%? What the final odds looked like? Quartiles or a box plot would be perfect -- or asking too much, sometimes hard to tell the difference. :smile:

Blue Tyson wrote:

Also, in your sample there, when you say eliminate the TAB 1's, if you have a 1 and an 11 say in a race,
do you then back the 11, or throw out the race altogether?


Just to clarify. In this method only consider the last start winner with the lowest TAB number. If that is TAB 1, eliminate and move on to next race. You don't then go down to the next last start winner in the same race, if any. Although you could. I haven't tried it.

Lowest tabbed last start winners yield lots of placeghetters and a good volume of winners too but the category as a whole needs further filtering to make it pay.Too many pay too little. You can locate the band that does pay in several ways. Removing TABs 1,2 and 3 helps, for instance, coz the poor payers tend to be those numbers (and usually favourites). You get much the same effect by looking at a market filter: eliminate anything under $5.

But it so happens, as I found by accident, that yes if you bet $3 on a qualifier carrying saddlecloth 3, $4 on 4, $5 on 5 etc. you get much the same effect - slightly better! Especially if number 11s like Upmarket Star win for 16/1. Just an idea.

Hermes