Chrome

Used these equations last night with some success. Have you had a look?

Hi AP,

Yes very interesting and thanks for pointing me to it.
Generally, my range is favourites only, so it's not as critical for me, but certainly it would be of great help in pricing anything that wasn't short in the market. I find that setting my percentages just short of the professionals is a good way to go for me. That way I know I haven't made an error. (overall)

Selections: March 23rd
 

Lots of lays tonight.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070323-0050 Wolverhampton - Bobering
20070323-0120 Wolverhampton - Postmaster
20070323-0140 Newbury - Carlitos
20070323-0250 Newbury - Tisseman
20070323-0250 Newbury - Go Solo
20070323-0340 Wolverhampton - Blushing Russian
20070323-0400 Newbury - Fleet Street
20070323-0400 Newbury - Priors Dale
20070323-0410 Wolverhampton - Bay Boy

doh
 

carlitos horse in point??

No selections tonight
 

Sorry. Have other commitments. Last nights results to follow.

Results: March 23rd
 

We're not breaking any speed records but steady forward progress is better than none at all I figure.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070323-0050 Wolverhampton - Bobering ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0120 Wolverhampton - Postmaster ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0140 Newbury - Carlitos ... WON -1.10
20070323-0250 Newbury - Tisseman ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0250 Newbury - Go Solo ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0340 Wolverhampton - Blushing Russian ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0400 Newbury - Fleet Street ... WON -4.50
20070323-0400 Newbury - Priors Dale ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0410 Wolverhampton - Bay Boy ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 23rd

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 109
Successful Selections: 92
Strike Rate: 84.40%
Profit: +21.72units
Commission @ 5%: -4.60 units
Net Profit: +17.12 units
Net POT: 15.70%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 562
Successful Selections: 430
Strike Rate: 76.51%
Profit: +48.33 units
Commission @ 5%: -21.50 units
Net Profit: +26.83 units
Net POT: 4.77%

Selections: March 25th
 

Here we go with the last week. There will be no selections next Saturday March 31st so this thread will end this coming Friday, March 30th.

Good luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070325-0010 Taunton - Bob Bites Back
20070325-0040 Taunton - Mister Knight
20070325-0100 Southwell - Symbiosis
20070325-0110 Taunton - Man Of Mine
20070325-0140 Taunton - Swansea Bay
20070325-0140 Taunton - Yes My Lord
20070325-0210 Taunton - Garleton

AP,

Well done with your efforts, you've beaten that stubborn donkey on POT, but he's bucked you off with higher dollar profit. But not by a great deal, your risk is lower.
One thing that does worry me is using the SP price minus 5% commission, on some lays you may never have been matched and on others matched at much lower prices. How do you know for accuracy?
I think you've done a tremendous job, not too many post lay systems here.
Keep up the good work.

Results: March 25th
 

We were very clever and managed to tip two non-runners. That takes a lot of skill :rolleyes: Not a bad night other than that.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070325-0010 Taunton - Bob Bites Back ... NON RUNNER
20070325-0040 Taunton - Mister Knight ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0100 Southwell - Symbiosis ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0110 Taunton - Man Of Mine ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0140 Taunton - Swansea Bay ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0140 Taunton - Yes My Lord ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0210 Taunton - Garleton ... NON RUNNER

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 25th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 114
Successful Selections: 97
Strike Rate: 85.08%
Profit: +26.72units
Commission @ 5%: -4.85 units
Net Profit: +21.87 units
Net POT: 19.18%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 594
Successful Selections: 455
Strike Rate: 76.59%
Profit: +54.42 units
Commission @ 5%: -22.75 units
Net Profit: +31.67 units
Net POT: 5.33%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

Thanks Chrome it's been an enjoyable exercise but I wouldn't like trying to make a living from being a tipster. Look's as though I've managed to pick a trial month where the Daily Donky selections are going to finish above 10,000 profit!* Just luck I guess :mad:



Yes I know there are problems there but it's more for illustrative purposes than for accuracy. I'm using SP for ease of comparison with the way the Daily Donkey display their results. As you say there are times when the selections don't get matched, and in fact you'd have missed a number of the "accidents" if you'd priced them up around the Racing Post PP. You'd have missed a number of our successes too, but you'd be doing better than the results posted here.

What I'll do at the end of the week is average the "accident" SP's out and use that SP to BF equation do display a projected BF matched price. With Donkey's 132 "accidents" things should even up quite a bit. I know this is not ideal but for the purposes of the exercise (quality over quantity) it's probably good enough.



Thanks again, but let's not forget the great stuff Michaelg get's up to.

* I'd like to think that the Daily Donkey team are lurking here and that they've picked up their game. ;)