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michaelg 21st September 2007 10:38 AM

I made an error with Wednesday's results - the profit on Win betting was $9.70.

Yesterday the profit on Win betting was $2.40, and with Quinellas it was $37.

There have now been 9 winners from 11 races, and 8 quinellas.

The POT for Win is 17.7%
The POT for Quinellas is 36.9%.

Today's selections:
Toowoomba R3 nos. 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10
Toowoomba R5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9
Toowoomba R6 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
Toowoomba R7 nos. 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10
Bendigo R5 nos. 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9
Bendigo R6 nos. 1, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14
Bendigo R8 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12
Bendigo R9 nos. 3, 4, 7, 10, 11, 14, 17
Canberra R3 nos. 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
Canberra R5 nos. 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 11
Canberra R6 nos. 1, 3, 5, 9, 10.

michaelg 22nd September 2007 10:50 AM

From today I'm slightly altering the selection method so that it does not disadvantage those returning from a spell.

Today's selections:
Caulfield R4 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10
Caulfield R7 nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 14, 16
Eagle Farm R7 nos. 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 12
Morphetville R4 nos. 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Morphetville R5 nos. 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
Morphetville R7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11
Morphetville R8 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Echuca R6 nos. 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Echuca R7 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 7
Echuca R8 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13
Belmont R5 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Belmont R8 nos. 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10.

Win outlay = $79
Quinella Outlay = $226

Fingers crossed.

Stix 2nd October 2007 05:07 PM

Died a natural death MickeyG?

michaelg 2nd October 2007 07:46 PM

Hi, Stix.

Fortunately its not yet dead. In fact its doing quite well with both Win and box quinellas but there has not been too much action, for example only one race today.

I've also been successfully using it as a Lay method. I lay any horse(s) that has not been selected provided I can get a price of $19.50 or less. I've found that the methods perform better with races that have 12 runners or more which I've been doing for the past week.

I'll start listing the selections tomorrow and see how they go.

michaelg 3rd October 2007 10:26 AM

Only one race today:

Moruya R7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10.

If any other number not shown above has a Lay price of under $20, then I'll be laying it/them.

michaelg 4th October 2007 10:58 AM

Not a good day. The winner paid $5.40 for a loss of $1.60, and the method unfortunately did not strike the quinella for a loss of $21.

Yesterday I was able to lay two horses which were beaten for a profit of 1.90 units. As a matter of interest, before listing the selections yesterday, there had been 21 selections for no accidents - but that 100% success rate will most likely fail today.

Today's selections.
Geelong R5 nos. 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
Geelong R8 nos. 1, 2, 5, 8, 15, 16, 17
Charlesville R5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10.
Charlesville R6 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 13, 14

Win outlay of $26
Quinella outlay of $72.

michaelg 5th October 2007 10:59 AM

The forum curse struck yesterday - the first Lay accident, of $16 and there were 8 successes. Even though its still in front I'll alter the method so that only races of 1,500 metres or more will be system races. Maybe its more difficult to rate shorter races where horses are resuming from spells and/or some second-up runners.

There is one race today.

Hamilton R6 nos 3, 4, 8, 9, 12, 14, 15

One of the fancied horses, no.2, is resuming from a spell, and as it has not been selected it will probably be a Lay selection.

michaelg 6th October 2007 08:15 AM

A good day yesterday - it had the winner of $18.20. And also the quinella of $165, the trifecta of $1,190 and the first four of $12,000.

I was also able to lay 2 horses which were beaten.

Three races today:
Flemington R2 nos. 1, 5, 6, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16
Canberra R7 nos. 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11.
Murtoa R5 nos. 1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 12.

michaelg 7th October 2007 10:08 AM

Not a good day yesterday - two winners from the three races for a loss of $11.10. No quinellas/trifectas/first fours were struck. Its still in profit, hopefully it'll be better today.

I was able to lay 5 horses yesterday which were all beaten.

Two races:
Benalla R9 nos. 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 15
Gawler R7 nos. 6, 9, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16 17.



I have been using a slightly different method for fields of 9 to 11 runners with success. Yesterday there were two qualifying races for the two winners of $2.10 and $26.30 for an outlay of $10 - the method snared both quinellas for a return of $69 for an outlay of $20, and also both trifectas paying a total of $2,680 for an outlay of $120.

There is only one race today:
Benalla R4 nos. 4, 6, 7, 11, 12

salty 13th October 2007 07:58 PM

Hello Michael

I hope you are allright. It is very unusual for you to go more than a day without updating your selections.
All the best
Salty


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