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- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - subtle expressions of glee (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19619)

Twodogs

8th January 2010 10:08 AM

Hope you enjoyed your break!

Quote:

Originally Posted by topsy99

i've just been to northwest tasmania for a few days camping so missed sandown. you wouldnt believe i backed rathshallagh last start. got beaten by 18 lengths but was place in queensland derby group 1 2008 and 13 points was the score. (noticed G Boss rode it) the question regarding minimum number of points ref; perth cup. i favour the top points scores.
Ref doing some work on the race. I do it for the interest . I cant make selections from the paper as it is boring as there is no end of races .
The point systems put some personality into the selections and i like the idea of trainers targeting wins. e.g. rathshallagh I am sure would not have gone without some backing. Rathsahallagh also placed at group 2 level at Trentham. Methods like this limit my activities to listed horses so stops the go, go, go danger of racing.
I hope you had something on rathshallagh.

No unfortunately not. Was looking at the races after the event! Laurie many black type races have quite a few high pointers do you generally leave these alone?

Cheers
Twodogs

Twodogs

8th January 2010 10:13 AM

A group 1 placegetter

Quote:

Originally Posted by topsy99

in the case of rathshallagh it is a mistake to try to pick the eyes out of the races. a winner at 37/1 pays for a lot of sins and by trying to exact your selections might cause short odds and also miss a lot of winners.

That's experience talking.

A group 1 placegetter at 37/1 is a bit inviting the fact that its form was poor is a test of faith. we have been discussing this test of faith. most of us punters cant go a few races wthout a winner and that is our downfall.

You have nailed it there Laurie a group 1 placegetter is better than a listed placegetter.

Staking properly should take care of runs of losers but I guess it is a little bit of an unknown what sort of strikerate can be achieved until you have had a go live.

Regards
Twodogs

Twodogs

8th January 2010 10:16 AM

Prepost Prices

Laurie we can do the points once we have the form but what prices do you use to work out your value bets? In the Sandown race on Wednesday I used the 5 mins to go prices off the tote but it is a little close for comfort if you haven't done some work before then.

Cheers
Twodogs

jackact

8th January 2010 06:02 PM

Well done again, topsy99. Interestingly, I did back Rathshallagh, but based on work I am doing on Unitab rate combinations on last races at metrop meetings (I reckon last races are the hardest on each program usually, and therefore the best for value).
It is always good to get your thoughts.
Jackact

topsy99

10th January 2010 12:11 PM

test of faith.

one bet friday. spontaneous moonee valley last race
m rodd place group 1 in new zealand trained by m moroney. backed in late. i backed at 10/1 3 mins to go paid $6.40

did anyone get electric general in ascot yesterday. 6 points (most in race) paid $33.

it is a test of faith. but risking a comment on that race - 6 horse race ma ma machine coming off a listed win a week before at odds on.

See what you are up against.? a very unpredictable industry and punters are usually at the short end.
Also got come on cugat yesterday in sydney at $22 I ignored brave lancer and i backed come on cugat last start. Never got anything in gold coast though.

Twodogs

11th January 2010 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by topsy99

one bet friday. spontaneous moonee valley last race
m rodd place group 1 in new zealand trained by m moroney. backed in late. i backed at 10/1 3 mins to go paid $6.40

I missed that one Laurie as my database didn't have the NZ run.

Cheers
Twodogs

Twodogs

11th January 2010 08:47 PM

Good Score Laurie!

Quote:

Originally Posted by topsy99

did anyone get electric general in ascot yesterday. 6 points (most in race) paid $33.

it is a test of faith. but risking a comment on that race - 6 horse race ma ma machine coming off a listed win a week before at odds on.

See what you are up against.? a very unpredictable industry and punters are usually at the short end.

Actually I scored it with 11 points but I didn't look to closely at the race until after the event. Good Score Laurie!

Your right about following form as it can defy logic! Last winner and short and best it can do is run 4th.

Cheers
Twodogs

Twodogs

12th January 2010 05:30 PM

The short end of market

The short end of market can really hurt when you get a run of losses. You can do the form get everything right in your opinion only to see the horse not come out of the barriers, weight in light, not get the runs it needs to get out and the excuses go on. Of course you can be wrong also with your wise opinion so it can add up to plenty of frustration at prices that don't allow longer run of outs.

I would certainly wouldn't mind back double figure odds even if it takes three selections to get it.

Laurie have you bet your selections in the exotics?

Cheers
Twodogs

Twodogs

13th January 2010 01:19 PM

Thank You

Quote:

Originally Posted by Twodogs

Laurie have you bet your selections in the exotics?

Cheers
Twodogs

Topsy99 is your normal approach to just back one horse in a race or would you back a few?

I thank you for post this approach as it has renewed my interest in research and in an area price wise that I didn't generally expect to find winners.

Cheers
Twodogs

jackact

13th January 2010 05:22 PM

Canterbury Classic

Here are my figures for the Canterbury Classic on 14th January. (Using R&Sports data only, and Betchoice early market.)
Hadaaf 12.8
Kennys World 7.0
Bank Robber 6.3
News Alert 5.3
Pins on Parade 3.2
I'll be backing Kennys World and News Alert for a place.
Cheers,
Jackact

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