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-   -   Systems Fear (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23491)

Mark 1st March 2012 12:44 PM

For the more experienced or adventurous use some discretion.

Lay the fav to pay $110.
You like the 2nd fav so only lay to pay $100.
You think the 3rd fav is unders so lay to pay $105 or even $110.
You don't like the fav, lay to pay $120.
There's a 20/1 shot you think is overs so lay to pay $90 or $95.
etc..... the permutations are endless, but always have the first couple in the market right up there.

The more % you have on your side, the less you risk and the more you win.
Doing this even on a bad day you can't do much damage.

Mark 1st March 2012 12:47 PM

I do this on US races in the morning, AUS races during the day, and UK races into the night. I usually (but not always) have Friday and Sunday off, due to preparing and then getting over Saturday.

No form study required unless you want to.
Have the bulfk of the field, and sometimes the whole field running for you.
Treat it as a job or a business.
Keep records.

Mark 1st March 2012 12:51 PM

Another variation is to lay everthing except the first few in the market to lose $100. Then lay the first few in the market to gradually pay out more than the previous in the market.
eg 4th pick is $10 so bet is $100/11, pay out is $111.
Lay 3rd pick to pay $113.
Lay 2nd pick to pay $115.
Lay fav to pay $120.
Or thereabouts.

Either method you can turn a profit when something that is at long odds that you give no chance to wins.

TheSchmile 1st March 2012 01:03 PM

Hi Mark,

Thanks for going so in depth.

I'll have a peruse in between win bets.

I vaguely recall you said in a previous post you play 15-20 races per day/country. Do you try to ascertain weak fav's to gain an advantage, or simply play the percentages?

The Schmile

Mark 1st March 2012 01:04 PM

Here are my bets from the US this morning, rounded up/down.
2.28..........97
6.4............32
130...........1.50
36.............5.50
4.8............44
100............2
14.5...........14
12.5...........16

hold $207, lost $4 when 4.80 won.

6.2..........82
2.45........225
21...........24
29...........17
50...........10
3.05........172

hold $530, won $5 when 3.05 won.

3.65.......91
48..........6.25
15.5.......19
24..........12.5
6.6.........47
5.6.........57
17..........17.5
21..........14.25
5.7.........56

Hold $321, won $23 when 17 won.

I usually stop when ahead on the US.
+$24 for 15 minutes work after I got out of bed, not knowing anything about the runners.

Mark 1st March 2012 01:07 PM

I will add that midweek I don't even look at our races until R5, don't bet omn maidens, and don't bet unless at least 30% of favs have won in the races run before the first R5 is run. If few have won I have the day off, if 30% or more have won I get stuck in. That's just me.

Saturday's I get stuck in from R1, but limit myself to Syd, Melb & Bris, and "big" races from anywhere else.

Mark 1st March 2012 01:10 PM

Feel free to ask questions, even rubbish this (I don't care, my BF account tells me otherwise). I will even put up my results on requested races from the last few weeks if you like (if I did bet on them).

I'll add that this is not the only way to win but it's more or less what I do.

How many will take note?, very few. How many will be doing this and still doing it in a year from now, probably nobody.

Mark 1st March 2012 01:15 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSchmile
Hi Mark,

Thanks for going so in depth.

I'll have a peruse in between win bets.

I vaguely recall you said in a previous post you play 15-20 races per day/country. Do you try to ascertain weak fav's to gain an advantage, or simply play the percentages?

The Schmile


Every race is different, every day is different, which makes what I do very hard to mechanise. I approach every race differently to the previous race.
An average is hard to gauge but if pressed I would say I average 5-6 US (6-7 days per week) 6-10 AUS races (4-5 days per week) Saturday is usually 20+, and 6-8 UK races (6-7 days per week).

norisk 1st March 2012 01:16 PM

Cheers for the insight Mark

Wonder if you traded the Oakleigh Plate last Sat & if so would mind sharing your approach to that race.

jose 1st March 2012 01:22 PM

Top stuff Mark.
Hope this doesn't wreck the prices for you, as I see by the amount of views that there is quite a lot of interest in your method.
Cheers.


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