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- - Learning to Bet like a Pro (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=26490)

Lord Greystoke

16th October 2013 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

Had a look at your examples Darky. the D Scott method rated it at $1.70, Neural's $6.50 and Morning Line $14, so anybody's guess?? AND all sourced from the same website....please explain??

I favour the Morning Line as a LAY indicator....lol, that's how much I think of these ratings.

You will find that in some cases, they are fairly accurate. Also that they do not necessarily need to be applied like a scientific instrument to make them effective or helpful.

LG

evajb001

16th October 2013 09:15 AM

Paul,

I've gone through stages of recording the Nuerals however now I've just started backtesting/keeping records of my own ratings that i've put together. I think I prefer to know whats going into producing the ratings myself rather than flying blind on just the results. I guess both ways work however I find it rewarding the process of putting them together and following their progress.

Have always enjoyed fiddling around with Excel and equations and problem solving, I think thats why I enjoy the punting game.

darkydog2002

16th October 2013 09:39 AM

LG,

In various ways they have served me very well over the years .
Normally though I much prefer the UNITABS Tipsters selections over any Rating service and believe me I,ve seen them all.

The latest bit of nonsense were the EXTERxxxx selections of which many have complained to me of.

For those who,ve found something that suits them may the punting Gods be with you.

darkydog2002

16th October 2013 09:44 AM

Hi Paul,
Great idea and one hopes you get a response.

Cheers
darky

darkydog2002

16th October 2013 09:58 AM

For those still interested the figures to date are

242 Bets / 38 Win/ Av Price of winner $5.99 /Loss - betting to prices to take $200 a race $595.

Win % 15.7 %

I dont Place bet so no records for these.

Incidentally in my real betting wet tracks have the most winners at good prices - Av $3.40

No relation to R+S .

One of the better posters pointed this out to me a long time ago.

Rinconpaul

16th October 2013 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaulD01

..... the prospect of success or otherwise when betting overlays on ratings such as Don Scotts, Neurals etc......

I'll save you some time, "don't give up your day job", based on success using the No. 1 ranked D Scott or Neural rated selection. As I said in my earlier post they provide some good Lay opportunities:

No. of races reviewed: 10,817

D Scott No. 1 ranking selected 2261 winners, 20.9%WSR, -$727 LOT
Neural No. 1 ranking selected 2029 winners, 18.75%WSR, -$1785 LOT

LOT based on Tote prices $1 bet. Might get better if you seek out overlays, but these selections generally start favourite 60% of the time: D Scott 1379, Neural 1238 selections started favourite.

Lord Greystoke

16th October 2013 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rinconpaul

I'll save you some time, "don't give up your day job", based on success using the No. 1 ranked D Scott or Neural rated selection.

Who said anything about 'or', my dear Moriarty?

LG

darkydog2002

16th October 2013 01:56 PM

Its a interesting exercise though finding out whats total rubbish.

Its surprising what people who contact me have to say about most of the well publicized Rating Services.
It would make your hair curl.

Frankly I,ve yet to see one make a yearly profit.

As one proprietor told me once.

"I,m not here to make you a profit but to point you in the direction of good horses"

There is some truth in that.

Dale	17th October 2013 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michal

What you have to do is establish what your underlying performance point is, and the only way to do that is with a large enough sample. The confidence that this will give you will be invaluable when you are looking at an extended run of outs and wonder if something is broken or what the problem is. We all go through those emotions.

The tendency is to tweak! Add a few filters, or more rules and change the mechanics, there by changing everything including your confidence level in the method and the risk that you are willing to endure. Usually this is followed by a further few tweaking sessions before the whole system is thrown out and a new grail is sought. That's the way most punters work.".

Ive been reading and contributing to this forum for many years now,lately just reading.

I have to say though that what Michal has written above could be stamped as an advisory note over almost every thread in the Horse Race Betting Systems Forum. Simple in nature but one of the most important comments ive read.

Its the recurring mistake that every single person on here has or is still making.

Understanding this issue is the key to success.

Lord Greystoke

17th October 2013 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaulD01

Hi LG

In the main it's all about identifying those factors that the market already values correctly and those that it doesn't. The answers to nearly all of this can all be found using your version of Axis.

Hi Paul,

Picking up on your point here and also another in one of your earlier points(re-posted by Dale above).. what would you say is a LARGE enough sample with which to be confident in identifying:

1. what the market values correctly / incorrectly
2. where there is a pattern or theme that is more likely to be repeated with a 'reasonable level' of confidence

I have seen various suggestions on here regards a suitable sample size but given that you are in the business of quality data / database / testing over the longer term, I am interested to see what your view is on this. Apologies if I have missed one of your earlier posts which spells this out!

Cheers LG

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