PS: May add another couple of bets to the one below after Pinnacle price up

Extra Bet

Sprem v Parra-Sontanja
Nasdaq - Round 2

The Croatian Sprem ranked 18 and with a 61/24 hardcourt record comes upagainst the Spaniard Parra-Sontanja ranked 76 with a 53/44 hardcourt record.Prior to the Nasdaq, Parra-Sontanja had played 4 matches on hard resulting in 4 thumpings - Smashnova beat her 6-0 6-0, Chakvetadze beat her 6-3 6-2, Likhovtseva beat her 6-0 6-0 and Talaja beat her 6-2 6-0 (more bagels than a New York deli!). She even struggled at times in her first round match with 15-year-old Tatishvili who has only played 5 Challenger games, 3 of which she won. Sprem has also had a few losses this year but they were close games to class players like Schydner, Vaidisova, Stosur (in Australia during her hot streak) and Safina in Paris (who went on to win tournament). Sprem has also had some good results on American hardcourts including making the quarter finals at this tournament last year. She's right on the 'value line' but I'll take her at the price (she'll be off my Xmas card list if she loses this one).


Sprem $1.28 generally available.
(some smaller bookies are offering $1.30).

Update

Bet 50; Won 39; Lost 11
At Flat Stakes: Bet 50; Won 13.28; ROI 26.5%

A very good night with both selections getting home. However Sprem played poorly andis one to avoid in the next round (apparently she's having some off-court personal problems as well). Randriantefy turned out to be great value and was easily obtainable at $2.20 in the late betting (though I'll still record the early price).

Cohen-Aloro v Sprem
Nasdaq - Round 3

Sprem played very poorly last night in a game she should have lost. As mentioned yesterday, Parra-Sontanja is currently a 'dog' on hardcourts but she still broke Sprem's serve at willand absolutely hammered her in the second set. Sprem may have been rusty coming off the bye but this shouldn't be an excuse against a player of Parra-Sontanja's calibre. While anecdotal, Sprem's personal life is currently a hot topic in the Croatian tabloids and while difficult todetermine the impact, she ceratinly played like someone who's distracted. Moreover, she withdrew from Qatar with lower back pain and has decided to withdraw from Croatia's forthcoming Fed Cup tie with Thailand as a precaution from 'overplaying. Sprem's opponent Cohen-Aloro has a 55/38 hardcourt record and is certainly a better player than Parra-Sontanja. She hasn't had a good year thus far but is showing good form at Miami with wins over Strycova and the in-form Hantuchova. That said, she came through to the main draw as a lucky loser, beating Bedanova in the first round of qualies and then losing to Serna. While I still rate Sprem the favourite (55.1-44.9%), her rating has fallen during this tournament (and has been falling for the past 2 weeks) while Cohen-Aloro's rating has improved some 40% during the same period. Value on the outsider but I wouldn't put the house on it.

Cohen-Aloro $2.65 @ 5Dimes
(Bookies very slow to price up. many haven't check the draw and have failed to price up tonight's 'extra' matches including Sprem. Might be better prices later),

Bet 51; Won 39; Lost 12
At Flat Stakes: Bet 51; Won 12.28; ROI 24%

What a difference a day makes - I couldn't have been more wrong about Sprem last night! She absolutely wiped the court with Cohen-Aloro who showed none of the grit that saw her beat Hantuchova the night before. Women!

Molik vs Henin.
Nasdaq - Round 4

I think everyone's having trouble pricing this match up. Molik's certainly playing a great game at the moment and has had some impressive results this season. Her serve, ground strokes and stamina are true class but the big question is: how fit is Henin? To be sure, at her peak she'd be a red hot favourite but you can't expect her to be anywhere near her best. She's certainly been workman-like this week and hasn't done anything wrong. However Henin has yet to face a player of consequence, having beaten Spears (who really only has a big serve) and claycourt specialist Llagostera-Vives. Now she may be pacing herself and may unleash tonight but these girls aren't robots so I expect Henin's long layoff to be exposed by Molik's power and stamina. I have a slight advantage to Molik - 51.1-48.9% so I'll take the Aussie.

Molik $2.15 @ 5dimes.


Clijsters - Myskina
Nasdaq - Round 4

Myskina recently took a couple of weeks off to refocus as she was playing so poorly. The rest seems to have worked and she's certainly picked up her play - but then again she's only faced Penetta and Vento-Kabchi. While these two are competent players, Clijster's is a different proposition. The Belgain will be very keen to follow-up on her recent tournament and with the Williams sisters and Henin all returning from injury, Clijster's will be out to assert herself. While I doubt she's at full strength, she hasn't put a foot wrong during her comeback and certainly gave Davenport a good game. The h2h is 4-3 to Clijster's though one of the games involved Clijster's retiring and another couple are rather dated. I expect this to be close, but the value is definitely with Clijsters whom I rate a 68.1% chance of winning.

Clijsters $1.48 @ StanJames and others.
(early lines)


Mauresmo v Sprem
Nasdaq - Round 4

I said my piece about Sprem yesterday and she proved me wrong (and some!) but I'm not convinced. Mauresmo' s had a few shaky moments over the past few weeks and even managed to lose to Linetskya. However she lost that game through a huge number of unforced errors and this is an exception rather than the rule. You won't see me punting down this end of the market too often but I still think's there value - though marginal - in the short odds. If not, my TV will
be taking a trip out the window.

Mauresmo $1.16 % 5Dimes
(some smaller books are offering 1.17).

Update


Bets 54; Won 41; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 54; Won 11.92; ROI 22%


Well Molik let us down last night so a small loss for the evening. Good wins to
Mauresmo and Clijsters (who appears back to her best). Clijster's is my pick for the tournament at this point - though there's no value in the outright odds.



Sharapova vs Henin.
Nasdaq - Quarter Final

Following on form yesterday - I still don't think Henin is anywhere near her best. Fair enough, she disposed of Molik but Sharapova won't be as easy. Some people may be concerned over Sharpova's recent double-bagel loss to Davenport but I believe this was a one off - she simply had a bad day.
There's nothing in her performances this week that suggests she's below par and I'm sure her ultra-competitive ego took a real bruising. Sharapova will be looking for a bounce-back and while Henin can never be underestimated, it's
a big ask for her to win today. There may be a comparison with Clijster's recent comeback from injury in Antwerp where she blitzed the first two rounds but upon coming up against Serena Williams, she was bundled out rather easily. Similar situation today, in that Henin has played well for 3 games but hasn't faced stiff opposition (I believe the Sharapova - Molik divide is significant). I rate Sharapova a 65% chance of winning.

Sharapova $1.62 @ 5Dimes
(early line and prices may vary given opinion is mixed on Henin's current form)

Update

Bets 55; Won 42; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 54; Won 12.54; ROI 23.2%

Nice win last night though a couple of very nervous moments in the second and third sets. I dislike Henin for her sometimes unsporting behaviour but you have to admire her grit.

Sharapova picked up a bit of an injury niggle so I'd be a tad wary of her in her next game.

Tournament gets rather difficult from here.

I'd like to take Clijster's over Dementieva but short value (need $1.36). Kim's also my pick for the tournament from here though no value in outright odds. I'd also like to back Ivanovic but more because I'm a fan of her play. Outside chance of an upset and closer than prices indicate but no value.

Back tomorrow.

An interesting couple of matches tonight.


Clijsters v Mauresmo.
Nasdaq Semi-Final.

I rate Clijsters a 66% chance of winning this match. Her current form is superb and she sounds very confident in her interviews. She does talk about a few aches and pains but then again which player doesn't. She didn't appear to burn too much fuel in her demolition of Dementieva yesterday so she should be relatively 'fresh' for this match. Since her comeback, Clijster's serve appears both stronger and more accurate. Moreover, her baseline play remains as strong as ever and no one can question her fighting spirit. Mind you, Mauresmo does have claims and could obviously win but Clijsters 7-2 H2h advantage suggests otherwise (Clijster's has won the last 6). I'm sure this will be close and a lot will hinge on the first set. However the value is with the Belgian.

Clijsters $1.59 5Dimes


Sharapova v Williams:
Too many 'ifs' and 'buts' in this match for me. Sharapova's back is a definite concern as it gave her a lot of grief during the second set with Henin. Remember she was leading 4-1 and serving prior to the problem and after taking treatement, she lost the set 7-5. Of course she went on to beat the 'rusty' Henin but Sharapova stated during her post match interview that her back might be an 'issue'. Therefore if Venus can replicate her form from the first set with Serena, then this should be an entertaining affair. Then again, Venus is still getting over a slow-healing abdominal injury that forced her to withdraw from Indian Wells.

Update

Bets 56; Won 43; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 56; Won 13.04; ROI 23.3%

Exceptional win to Clijster's - she really has the 'wood' over Mauresmo's power game and use of spin. The game was far more one-sided than I predicted - great stuff!

Clijster's odds dropped rather quickly yesterday so I'll place $1.50 in the record as an average price as opposed to the early lines around $1.59. I'm hoping this makes the record a more realistic reflection of ROI%.

I'm still predicting Clijster's in the final. I rate her as a slight favourite but will post when the early lines are published. I'm guessing the bookies will split them down the middle.

The following excerpt is from Clijster's online diary. Food for thought before backing her at the ridiculously low $1.65-ish opening prices. I'm waiting for at least $1.76 before posting the bet (and that's marginal value in my opinion).


"I got up about an hour ago. It is still very moisty around here and one sweats the whole day through, even while doing nothing. I am starting to feel exhausted because of the succession of matches and my wrist is a bit stiff as well.

Playing eleven matches in a row in three weeks is tiring if you haven't been able to play for about a year. In the second set against Myskina I really hit a low, any third set would have been too much. Luckily, I now had a day's rest, but still I feel that my wrist needs more rest and that I should be having a checkup at the hospital again.

Right, I'm going to get ready for another half an hour of practice and testing my wrist. The WTA doctor advised me not to take any risks, so we'll see. After that, I still have some time left, as my match is only at 2am Belgian time.

Keep your thumbs up and see you soon.
Love Kim"

Bausch and Lomb at Amelia Island
Green Clay.

While not the first clay tourney of the year, Amelia island generally marks the start of the clay court swing. While it's sometimes tricky to tip the opening rounds, the clay season generally proves to be more profitable than the hardcourt swing.

Out of interest, green clay is slightly faster than red clay, has a higher bounce, longer rebound distance and is harder to slide on.



Chladkova v Pratt
Amelia Island - Round 1

Pratt plays this week courtesy of a wildcard - her ever declining ranking wasn't good enough. She is also playing on her least favourite surface which is reflected in her 30/37 career record. Chladkova on the other hand, is playing on her favourite surface. While she's had an ordianry hardcourt season thus far, her performances on clay at Berlin and Roland Garros last year suggest she is a deserving favourite. Note that Pratt won their only encounter on clay last year but she was in far better form at the time.

Chladkova $1.60 @ 5Dimes


Pierce v Bedanova
Amelia Island - Round 1

Pierce made the QF's of Indian Wells so is slowly getting back to form. She has a solid clay record of 86/39 as compared to Bedanova's 12/16 (she rarely plays onthe dirt). Bedanova is also only a few games back from a very long injury layoff so Pierce should have a definite edge. Short odds but value with Mary.

Pierce $1.25 @ Interwetten and others
($1.28 at some smaller bookies)


NB: Martinez should win but she withdrew from Nasdaq with a heel injury and her opponent Irvin has the advantage of 2 qualifying matches. Enough doubt to watch from the sidelines.

Shaui Peng, who plays tomorrow, is an ordinary clay courter who's returning from a 4 week layoff with an ankle injury. I'll be looking to oppose her.

Maria Elen Camerin, who withdrew from Nasdaq with an ankle injury, comes up against Brandi, an ordinary clay courter who won both her qualifiers. Probably one to avoid.

Daniilidou is also probably one to avoid as she's underdone from a recent thumb injury. She also has a poor clay court reord.

Linetskya is way too short in the market and Medina-Garrigues is a good chance of beating her.
Likewise Frazier is way too short with Jidkova a good chance of winning.