I enjoy following your ratings Sportz, your strike rate, especially in major races is very impressive. Keep up the good work, and keep posting your ratings please, especially in the treble races. I think you should run one of your comps around quadies or trebles actually!

Thanks for that. Interesting idea.

The Brisbane treble actually paid $235 today and it wasn't that hard to get at all really with something like a 3x3x4. I assume that states with quaddies would have been operating on the last 4 races? If so, you could have got that one too without taking too many selections.

Sunday, February 4

Okay, Sundays haven't really been all that great with the ratings, but I'll have another go today. Be careful.

SALE R6 (SALE QLTY)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
38 . $2.6 . 1 MESSAGE BANK
29 . $3.4 . 8 RUBITON RAIDER
13 . $7.7 . 3 ARBITRATION
10 . $10.0 . 5 RAID THE ROYALS
8 . $12.5 . 6 CANDY MAN
-----
2 . $50.0 . 4 DON'T TELL TOM
1 . $100.0 . 10 MODANEY
1 . $100.0 . 11 SENSATIONAL SWING

WGT RT: 1 MESSAGE BANK / 8 RUBITON RAIDER ( 1/8-6-3 )
C/W RT: 1 MESSAGE BANK ( 1-8-3-6 )
FRM RT: 1 MESSAGE BANK ( 1-8-5-6 )





KYNETON R6 (WOODEND CUP)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
40 . $2.5 . 1 GYPSY BATTALIA
21 . $4.8 . 5 KINGSTON BIRD
14 . $7.1 . 2 MAD DUGAL
9 . $11.1 . 7 WEEPING WILLOW
6 . $16.7 . 8 EDGE OF GLORY
5 . $20.0 . 6 SKALAAD
-----
4 . $25.0 . 11 SORELLI
1 . $100.0 . 9 FRENCH LODGER

WGT RT: 5 KINGSTON BIRD ( 5-1-6-7 )
C/W RT: 1 GYPSY BATTALIA ( 1-5-2-6 )
FRM RT: 1 GYPSY BATTALIA * ( 1-7-8-5 )





PARKES R8 (PARKES CUP)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
38 . $2.6 . 3 STAR OF UNIVERSE
25 . $4.0 . 1 SPORTING JEWEL
12 . $8.3 . 2 CANTERDOWN
11 . $9.1 . 4 PAPER BOY
10 . $10.0 . 5 BRITISH STORM
-----
3 . $33.3 . 6 MIDNIGHT AVENUE
1 . $100.0 . 10 COUP DE STAR

WGT RT: 3 STAR OF UNIVERSE ( 3-4-2-1 )
C/W RT: 3 STAR OF UNIVERSE ( 3-1-4-5 )
FRM RT: 3 STAR OF UNIVERSE ( 3-2-1-5 )





SAPPH CST R6 (BEGA CUP)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
27 . $3.7 . 4 DANEBAR
19 . $5.3 . 3 SOUTHERN AIR
18 . $5.6 . 2 PASS THE PLATE
14 . $7.1 . 1 SHY PRINCE
13 . $7.7 . 6 WINKURRA
8 . $12.5 . 9 PROTECTIVE CUSTODY
-----
1 . $100.0 . 5 BOSSY MATILDA
1 . $100.0 . 7 HURRY ON SPEC

WGT RT: 4 DANEBAR ( 4-2-3-7 )
C/W RT: 4 DANEBAR ( 4-2-3-1 )
FRM RT: 6 WINKURRA ( 6-4-3-1 )

Race 6 at Sale.
Terrific First Four

Yeah, not a great day for the top raters, but a couple of value winners and the multis went okay.

Thanks to Stix ;) , I decided to have a look at how "overlay" betting went with the ratings in January.

Firstly, I have to say that working out "overlays" is a bit tricky as I'm simply using Unitab divs for compiling these results, and as we all know, you can get better dividends elsewhere and some horses which may not be overlays on Unitab MAY be overlays with another TAB or bookie and vice versa. So keep that in mind.

Anyway, I've finished looking at all the top rated runners in January (I'll look at the lower rated horses shortly), and as I thought may be the case, backing only the top raters which were overlays, was actually not such a great idea. They did in fact return a profit, but the profit dropped from the overall figure of 13% for ALL top raters down to just 6%.

Selections 146
Wins 42 (29%)
Return $155.30
Profit 6%

In fact, have a look at the results of all the horses that you're leaving out when you back just the overlays. These were the top rated horses which were LESS than the rated price ("underlays"):

Selections 55
Wins 28 (51%)
Return $71.70
Profit 30%

So there you go. I'm not sure what that tells us. Either it means I've got my prices all wrong or else it means that these particular horses were just so far and away the best horses in these races, that they overcame any perceived lack of value. Whatever the case, I think this shows us that these horses certainly can't be ignored.

One thing I did find out though. Top rated horses which were equal to or just slightly above their rated price did not do brilliantly. HOWEVER, top rated horses with a price which was at least 50% above their rated price did very well!!! For example, if a horse's rated price was $4 and their available price was $6 or more. During January, these were the results for those horses:

Selections 33
Wins 9 (27%)
Return $56.60
Profit 71.5%

Included in those 33 selections were 5 horses with a price which was at least double their rated price (a "double overlay") and those 5 horses produced 2 nice winners and a profit of 258%!!! I guess 5 selections is too small a sample to get too excited just yet, but it is certainly food for thought.

Now another thing I looked at. Top rated horses with a rated price of $2.30 or less. Those are what I consider to be ratings "specials". Here's how they went in January:

Selections 35
Wins 21 (60%)
Placings 32 (91.5%)
Return $45.70
Profit 30.5%

Now, the interesting thing about those results was the place strike rate. With the specials being placed in 32 out of 35 races, there does certainly seem to be some scope for using them as bankers in multis.

Interesting results there sportz. The amount of work you put into things is amazing. I had a quick look through some of your ratings and there looks to be good potential for quinellas and exactas with some nice divvies along the way. Using your specials as a standout could have huge results.
Good luck with it, might run a few tests on it myself.

Sorry to put you to work..... :o

Nope. I'm glad you did. I've now had a look at 2nd top raters and the results are certainly most promising. Been looking at a few other things too regarding multis.

I'll post all that a bit later.

Now to look at the 2nd top raters just as I did with the top raters.

Firstly, as I showed in an earlier post, backing ALL 2nd top raters in January produced a profit of 7%. Now, here's what happens backing only the 2nd top raters which were overlays:

Selections 131
Wins 21
Return $152.00
Profit 16%

Now, I looked for 2nd top raters which were 50% overlays, just as I did with the top raters:

Selections 25
Wins 6
Return $73.70
Profit 195%

Very promising figures there, but as I suggested previously, the results for 2nd top raters could have been thrown out by the big win of Myndos on Jan 20. So just for arguments sake, let's take him out of the results:

Selections 24
Wins 5
Return $46.20
Profit 92.5%

The results are still more than acceptable even without Myndos. So perhaps we could be onto something there.