I ran it through my data from the last ~9 months & showed a small loss around 2%, & actually it improved pushing out to 30% - would take a fair amount of live trialling to establish some workable parameters I would think.

norisk thanks for running that.

2% loss is not bad. What was the profit for 30% and can you give the profit/loss for 10%.

And one more test if possible. Do any odds ranges show a better profit ? ie under <$5 or ($5 to $20) or $20+

Hi UB, the 2% loss was for 30% $1 to $16 SP - will run a few scenarios & get back over the next few days

thank you

I looked at this today and decided on identifying all the horses in each race which were unders according to fixed prices or all three totes.

I then picked one horse to lay from those. I stuck to the les than $30 range.

So far its done well with 18 selections for no winners and the odds I am laying at are generally a lot less then the final betfair price (could trade out of them) and in some cases lower then all 3 totes.

from a sample of 1 week a month for the last 9 months

SP $1-$16
10%
tatts codes, BR, MR, NR, SR, VR
>=9 starters

collect $2874
bets $2644
net $230
8.7% pot net of 6.5% comm

hmm, plot thickens;)

will run the full 9 months tonight

SP $1-$16
10%
tatts codes, BR, MR, NR, SR, VR
>=9 starters

collect $8992
bets $9002
net $-10
-0.1% pot net of 6.5% comm

SP $1-$40
10%

-7.1 pot

...