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- - Profiting from the Crowd (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23914)

Croawd Ratings August 4th

MORP Race 3
1 84 $5.30
2 100 $3.20
3 90 $4.20
4 82 $5.80
5 60 $316.20
6 71 $11.30
7 70 $12.40

MORP Race 4
1 100 $3.40
2 90 $4.50
3 91 $4.30
4 73 $10.10
5 70 $13.10
6 80 $6.70
7 69 $14.50
8 60 $333.30

MORP Race 5
1 --- ---
2 100 $2.70
3 73 $8.10
4 89 $3.70
5 66 $16.90
6 73 $8.10
7 --- ---
8 66 $16.90
9 60 $264.70
10 71 $9.50

MORP Race 6
1 81 $7.70
2 95 $4.70
3 91 $5.30
4 65 $30.50
5 77 $9.50
6 88 $5.80
7 100 $4.10
8 69 $17.50
9 89 $5.60
10 72 $13.30
11 60 $404.40

MORP Race 7
1 85 $5.60
2 68 $16.90
3 78 $7.70
4 71 $12.50
5 64 $32.20
6 100 $3.50
7 89 $4.80
8 64 $32.20
9 60 $348.00
10 88 $5.00
11 63 $41.70

MORP Race 8
1 100 $3.70
2 66 $23.60
3 60 $370.10
4 76 $9.20
5 88 $5.30
6 --- ---
7 89 $5.10
8 88 $5.30
9 84 $6.20
10 --- ---
11 67 $20.40
12 78 $8.20
13 82 $6.70
14 79 $7.80

BLMT Race 2
1 100 $3.70
2 93 $4.50
3 88 $5.20
4 78 $8.10
5 60 $365.20
6 79 $7.70
7 71 $13.10
8 87 $5.40

BLMT Race 3
1 74 $8.60
2 81 $5.80
3 92 $3.80
4 67 $16.70
5 69 $13.20
6 75 $8.10
7 100 $3.10
8 71 $10.90
9 61 $88.10
10 60 $303.90

BLMT Race 4
1 77 $7.60
2 74 $9.20
3 100 $3.30
4 83 $5.60
5 84 $5.40
6 80 $6.50
7 68 $15.70
8 60 $323.50
9 83 $5.60
10 --- ---
11 62 $54.80

BLMT Race 5
1 60 $362.70
2 78 $8.00
3 --- ---
4 93 $4.40
5 87 $5.40
6 69 $15.70
7 100 $3.70
8 77 $8.50
9 77 $8.50
10 75 $9.60
11 85 $5.80
12 74 $10.30
13 81 $6.90
14 62 $61.50
15 60 $362.70

BLMT Race 6
1 89 $5.20
2 64 $34.90
3 67 $20.80
4 74 $10.70
5 100 $3.80
6 85 $6.10
7 60 $377.40
8 73 $11.50
9 84 $6.30
10 79 $7.90
11 76 $9.40
12 76 $9.40
13 94 $4.50

BLMT Race 7
1 100 $4.20
2 86 $6.40
3 81 $7.90
4 94 $4.90
5 90 $5.60
6 82 $7.60
7 67 $23.00
8 94 $4.90
9 79 $8.80
10 60 $416.60
11 90 $5.60
12 77 $9.80
13 88 $6.00

BLMT Race 8
1 --- ---
2 77 $9.20
3 96 $4.40
4 88 $5.60
5 65 $29.60
6 --- ---
7 89 $5.40
8 85 $6.30
9 --- ---
10 79 $8.20
11 67 $21.60
12 80 $7.80
13 69 $17.00
14 68 $19.00
15 100 $4.00
16 --- ---
17 60 $392.10

GCST Race 5
1 82 $6.80
2 95 $4.30
3 60 $372.50
4 88 $5.40
5 77 $8.70
6 100 $3.80
7 85 $6.00
8 70 $14.60
9 --- ---
10 66 $23.70
11 --- ---
12 60 $372.50

GCST Race 6
1 91 $3.80
2 60 $291.70
3 73 $8.90
4 64 $27.00
5 63 $34.90
6 63 $34.90
7 61 $84.50
8 85 $4.70
9 100 $2.90
10 68 $14.20

GCST Race 7
1 100 $4.10
2 83 $7.00
3 97 $4.40
4 79 $8.50
5 60 $401.90
6 91 $5.20
7 91 $5.20
8 64 $37.20
9 79 $8.50

GCST Race 8
1 80 $5.10
2 61 $73.90
3 100 $2.60
4 66 $16.20
5 --- ---
6 76 $6.30
7 75 $6.80
8 61 $73.90
9 60 $254.90
10 71 $9.10
11 65 $19.20

K_GR Race 5
1 80 $7.60
2 --- ---
3 71 $13.60
4 84 $6.40
5 77 $8.90
6 69 $16.50
7 --- ---
8 100 $3.80
9 --- ---
10 73 $11.60
11 60 $379.90
12 100 $3.80
13 --- ---
14 66 $24.20
15 89 $5.30
16 67 $20.90

TRAR Race 6
1 100 $4.20
2 92 $5.30
3 60 $419.10
4 91 $5.40
5 85 $6.70
6 95 $4.80
7 91 $5.40
8 66 $26.70
9 77 $9.80
10 76 $10.40

TWBA Race 2
1 97 $4.30
2 92 $4.90
3 100 $4.00
4 60 $392.10
5 80 $7.80
6 89 $5.40
7 74 $11.10
8 63 $47.00
9 62 $66.50

TWBA Race 3
1 74 $10.40
2 100 $3.70
3 69 $15.90
4 92 $4.60
5 81 $7.00
6 99 $3.80
7 76 $9.10
8 --- ---
9 60 $367.60
10 60 $367.60

TWBA Race 4
1 80 $5.90
2 82 $5.40
3 86 $4.60
4 100 $3.00
5 60 $296.60
6 63 $35.50
7 66 $18.90
8 71 $10.60

Cumulative Results to August 4th

Back of the envelope cumulative results from April 25th to August 4th. The figures in blue are those output from Excel using 0.284 in cell B2 (post #55 above). You can see that our second ranked selections continue to under perform dragging everything else after down. Way too early to know whether this will continue. Some pleasant overs to be had from our top pick though. :)

Top 1) won 59 from 208 (28.4%) (28.4%)
Top 2) won 84 from 208 (40.4%) (48.7%)
Top 3) won 119 from 208 (57.2%) (63.2%)
Top 4) won 145 from 208 (69.7%) (73.6%)
Top 5) won 155 from 208 (74.5%) (81.0%)

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngryPixie

Way too early to know whether this will continue.

Actually I'll take that comment back. A quick chi-test shows that the second selection is very likely to continue under performing :(

Cumulative results to August 4th

For those interested here are the cumulative Crowd Ratings results for GOOD and DEAD tracks only. The strike rate of the top slection improves as does the strike rate of those outside the top five :( 31.1% is a great result if it can be maintained.

I'll continue to split the results into the future.

GOOD and DEAD tracks only
Top 1) won 42 from 135 (31.1%)
Top 2) won 58 from 135 (43.0%)
Top 3) won 76 from 135 (56.3%)
Top 4) won 88 from 135 (65.2%)
Top 5) won 98 from 135 (72.6%)

Crowd Ratings August 11th

ARMI Race 4
1 100 $4.30
2 100 $4.30
3 --- ---
4 90 $5.80
5 90 $5.80
6 65 $32.40
7 93 $5.20
8 60 $428.90
9 83 $7.50
10 72 $14.10
11 69 $18.60
12 65 $32.40

CRNS Race 3
1 100 $3.50
2 75 $9.30
3 68 $17.00
4 77 $8.20
5 83 $6.10
6 83 $6.10
7 95 $4.00
8 63 $42.00
9 68 $17.00
10 80 $7.00
11 60 $350.50
12 62 $59.40

CRNS Race 5
1 69 $14.90
2 67 $18.90
3 94 $4.10
4 67 $18.90
5 100 $3.50
6 79 $7.20
7 75 $9.10
8 64 $31.80
9 90 $4.60
10 63 $41.10
11 60 $343.10

CRNS Race 6
1 100 $3.70
2 84 $6.20
3 86 $5.70
4 69 $16.10
5 74 $10.50
6 60 $370.10
7 67 $20.40
8 86 $5.70
9 93 $4.50
10 76 $9.20
11 62 $62.70
12 62 $62.70

EFRM Race 1
1 96 $4.60
2 88 $5.90
3 72 $13.50
4 82 $7.50
5 86 $6.40
6 90 $5.50
7 88 $5.90
8 78 $9.10
9 92 $5.20
10 88 $5.90
11 100 $4.20
12 64 $38.10
13 60 $411.70

EFRM Race 3
1 60 $250.00
2 63 $29.90
3 93 $3.10
4 67 $13.80
5 70 $9.80
6 70 $9.80
7 100 $2.50
8 62 $42.40

EFRM Race 4
1 97 $4.30
2 98 $4.20
3 60 $397.00
4 87 $5.90
5 68 $19.30
6 67 $21.90
7 75 $10.50
8 67 $21.90
9 100 $4.00
10 60 $397.00
11 72 $13.10
12 78 $8.80

EFRM Race 5
1 85 $6.70
2 86 $6.40
3 77 $9.80
4 100 $4.20
5 89 $5.80
6 60 $416.60
7 69 $18.10
8 91 $5.40
9 94 $4.90
10 94 $4.90
11 78 $9.20
12 --- ---
13 77 $9.80
14 68 $20.20
15 77 $9.80

EFRM Race 6
1 92 $5.50
2 87 $6.50
3 92 $5.50
4 100 $4.40
5 97 $4.70
6 87 $6.50
7 --- ---
8 87 $6.50
9 94 $5.10
10 70 $17.00
11 78 $9.60
12 92 $5.50
13 79 $9.10
14 66 $27.60
15 60 $433.80

EFRM Race 7
1 93 $3.70
2 71 $11.00
3 100 $3.10
4 73 $9.30
5 69 $13.30
6 --- ---
7 67 $16.90
8 71 $11.00
9 79 $6.40
10 74 $8.70
11 77 $7.20
12 60 $306.40
13 70 $12.00
14 71 $11.00
15 70 $12.00

EFRM Race 8
1 60 $446.00
2 --- ---
3 --- ---
4 94 $5.30
5 --- ---
6 83 $7.80
7 73 $13.60
8 100 $4.50
9 --- ---
10 --- ---
11 83 $7.80
12 100 $4.50
13 62 $75.60
14 77 $10.50
15 68 $21.70
16 92 $5.60
17 68 $21.70
18 94 $5.30
19 79 $9.40
20 87 $6.60
21 71 $16.00

FLEM Race 2
1 100 $3.60
2 --- ---
3 81 $6.80
4 69 $15.40
5 79 $7.50
6 77 $8.30
7 85 $5.70
8 90 $4.80
9 86 $5.50
10 82 $6.50
11 81 $6.80
12 --- ---
13 72 $11.70
14 60 $355.40

FLEM Race 3
1 93 $4.90
2 93 $4.90
3 88 $5.80
4 --- ---
5 --- ---
6 77 $9.40
7 100 $4.10
8 --- ---
9 60 $401.90
10 77 $9.40
11 79 $8.50
12 88 $5.80

FLEM Race 4
1 99 $4.50
2 88 $6.30
3 --- ---
4 82 $7.90
5 97 $4.80
6 92 $5.50
7 78 $9.70
8 --- ---
9 100 $4.40
10 --- ---
11 86 $6.70
12 77 $10.20
13 78 $9.70
14 60 $436.20

FLEM Race 5
1 69 $15.20
2 99 $3.60
3 67 $19.30
4 76 $8.70
5 72 $11.50
6 100 $3.50
7 88 $5.00
8 --- ---
9 76 $8.70
10 78 $7.80
11 --- ---
12 --- ---
13 76 $8.70
14 --- ---
15 60 $350.50
16 76 $8.70
17 70 $13.70
18 64 $32.40

FLEM Race 6
1 70 $11.40
2 78 $6.50
3 --- ---
4 100 $2.90
5 61 $84.50
6 89 $4.00
7 71 $10.40
8 60 $291.70
9 79 $6.10
10 67 $16.10
11 --- ---
12 61 $84.50
13 66 $18.60

FLEM Race 7
1 --- ---
2 --- ---
3 83 $5.50
4 65 $23.70
5 75 $8.30
6 --- ---
7 86 $4.80
8 100 $3.20
9 82 $5.70
10 --- ---
11 62 $53.20
12 65 $23.70
13 60 $313.70
14 60 $313.70

FLEM Race 8
1 68 $16.70
2 --- ---
3 90 $4.60
4 --- ---
5 100 $3.50
6 --- ---
7 80 $6.90
8 60 $343.10
9 100 $3.50
10 --- ---
11 --- ---
12 --- ---
13 --- ---
14 68 $16.70

GCST Race 6
1 100 $3.90
2 95 $4.50
3 86 $6.00
4 78 $8.60
5 68 $18.80
6 97 $4.20
7 62 $65.60
8 63 $46.40
9 68 $18.80
10 60 $387.20
11 63 $46.40

GCST Race 8
1 87 $5.80
2 93 $4.80
3 82 $7.10
4 93 $4.80
5 85 $6.30
6 --- ---
7 100 $4.00
8 60 $392.10
9 78 $8.70
10 72 $12.90
11 62 $66.50

Crowd Ratings August 11th

BLMT and TWBA to follow a little later.

MORP Race 2
1 84 $5.50
2 95 $3.80
3 81 $6.30
4 100 $3.30
5 --- ---
6 73 $10.10
7 60 $330.90

MORP Race 4
1 100 $4.10
2 84 $6.80
3 74 $11.50
4 79 $8.50
5 93 $4.90
6 93 $4.90
7 60 $404.40
8 93 $4.90

MORP Race 5
1 60 $330.90
2 73 $10.10
3 73 $10.10
4 --- ---
5 97 $3.60
6 73 $10.10
7 63 $39.60
8 90 $4.40
9 --- ---
10 100 $3.30

MORP Race 6
1 84 $5.70
2 85 $5.40
3 --- ---
4 82 $6.20
5 69 $14.70
6 85 $5.40
7 --- ---
8 --- ---
9 100 $3.40
10 60 $338.20

MORP Race 7
1 85 $6.20
2 79 $8.10
3 77 $9.10
4 88 $5.60
5 84 $6.50
6 73 $11.80
7 76 $9.60
8 60 $387.20
9 100 $3.90
10 95 $4.50
11 88 $5.60

MORP Race 8
1 74 $9.50
2 74 $9.50
3 82 $6.10
4 --- ---
5 90 $4.50
6 68 $16.30
7 66 $21.40
8 100 $3.40
9 89 $4.70
10 60 $335.80
11 60 $335.80

WFRM Race 2
1 100 $3.90
2 89 $5.40
3 99 $4.00
4 96 $4.40
5 73 $11.90
6 69 $16.90
7 60 $389.70

WFRM Race 4
1 86 $4.50
2 100 $2.90
3 64 $26.80
4 76 $7.20
5 90 $3.90
6 60 $289.20
7 60 $289.20
8 60 $289.20

WFRM Race 5
1 68 $14.60
2 100 $3.00
3 73 $9.20
4 60 $301.50
5 83 $5.30
6 75 $8.00
7 71 $10.80
8 60 $301.50
9 90 $4.00

WFRM Race 6
1 100 $3.30
2 83 $5.80
3 84 $5.50
4 89 $4.60
5 60 $330.90
6 77 $7.80
7 66 $21.10
8 60 $330.90

WFRM Race 7
1 100 $4.20
2 98 $4.40
3 100 $4.20
4 66 $26.20
5 60 $411.70
6 66 $26.20
7 73 $12.50
8 90 $5.50
9 78 $9.10
10 71 $14.70
11 --- ---
12 71 $14.70

WFRM Race 8
1 82 $6.90
2 100 $3.80
3 83 $6.60
4 70 $14.90
5 97 $4.10
6 60 $379.90
7 73 $11.60
8 63 $45.50
9 67 $20.90
10 83 $6.60
11 77 $8.90
12 --- ---
13 82 $6.90
14 90 $5.10
15 80 $7.60

Hi Angrypixie,

I hope you're well!

I have a few questions for you:

1/ Would you recommend the best play to take the top selection when overs can be attained?

2/ Have you found metro to be better than provincial/country or vice versa?

TS

I'm not quite ready to form any conclusions yet as I've not really committed anything to analysis. There looks to be a profit to be made from backing the top rated selection if you can secure say between 30% to 100% overs. I wouldn't be going much over that though, and this conclusion is really only from sight. The prices used here are reasonably close for the top selection but I'd be ignoring anything else. I'm intending on re-pricing everything soon.

I've done a small amount of testing on weekday country races and the Crowd Rating appear to perfom quite well there. If you stick to the good to dead tracks the Saturday country races probably perform to the average.

Sorry I've really not given it much thought yet :)

Forgot to say thanks for showing some interest :)

Crowd Ratings August 11th

BLMT Race 3
1 92 $4.70
2 81 $7.10
3 75 $9.80
4 100 $3.70
5 --- ---
6 83 $6.50
7 --- ---
8 86 $5.70
9 60 $370.10
10 88 $5.30

BLMT Race 4
1 --- ---
2 92 $4.20
3 100 $3.30
4 84 $5.50
5 71 $11.80
6 60 $330.90
7 71 $11.80
8 77 $7.80
9 80 $6.60
10 75 $8.80

BLMT Race 5
1 81 $6.80
2 83 $6.20
3 77 $8.30
4 83 $6.20
5 77 $8.30
6 81 $6.80
7 60 $355.40
8 73 $10.80
9 86 $5.50
10 91 $4.60
11 100 $3.60

BLMT Race 6
1 89 $5.60
2 91 $5.20
3 69 $17.40
4 98 $4.30
5 71 $14.40
6 76 $10.00
7 84 $6.70
8 100 $4.10
9 60 $401.90

BLMT Race 7
1 83 $6.80
2 82 $7.10
3 100 $4.00
4 77 $9.20
5 69 $17.00
6 --- ---
7 78 $8.70
8 83 $6.80
9 60 $392.10
10 98 $4.20
11 91 $5.10
12 65 $29.60
13 --- ---
14 86 $6.10

BLMT Race 8
1 --- ---
2 89 $4.80
3 80 $6.90
4 67 $19.00
5 64 $32.00
6 67 $19.00
7 60 $345.60
8 71 $12.40
9 100 $3.50
10 --- ---
11 85 $5.60
12 60 $345.60
13 85 $5.60
14 75 $9.20
15 --- ---
16 62 $58.60

TWBA Race 1
1 79 $7.90
2 97 $4.10
3 100 $3.80
4 77 $8.80
5 84 $6.30
6 92 $4.80
7 --- ---
8 71 $13.50
9 68 $18.30
10 60 $377.40

TWBA Race 2
1 100 $3.40
2 94 $4.00
3 89 $4.70
4 77 $8.00
5 72 $11.20
6 75 $9.00
7 77 $8.00
8 60 $340.70

TWBA Race 6
1 89 $5.00
2 89 $5.00
3 100 $3.60
4 64 $33.10
5 67 $19.70
6 84 $6.00
7 82 $6.50
8 60 $357.80

TWBA Race 7
1 86 $5.10
2 100 $3.30
3 84 $5.50
4 90 $4.40
5 70 $13.00
6 73 $10.10
7 60 $330.90