Thanks, U.B.

However I think it might be too early to tell if the method has legs. There's only been 1474 selections (for 1445 smiles) over a period of a month and a half.

Maybe the general accuracy of the D.Scott market should also take some credit.

Let's hope it continues.

There's been problems getting into this site but it now seems to have been rectified.

Today's selections:

Wangaratta
1/9
2/4, 13
3/7, ,8
5/7, 12
6/13
7/5
8/15

Bathurst
1/10
4/12
5/5
6/9
7/7, 8

Moruya
1/3, 7
2/11
3/4, 6, 13
5/13
7/2, 7
8/11

A good day.

There were 26 smiles from the 26 selections for a profit of $21.35. That's six winning days in a row which is a record.

Today's selections:

Port Mac
2/9, 10
4/3, 9
5/7, 9, 10
6/2, 12
8/11

Kilmore
3/2, 4
4/2, 8, 9
7/2
8/2, 3, 10

Townsville
3/2
5/12
7/3, 11

Hi Michaelg,

Top show thus far!! 6 winning days in a row there's bound to be one or two corrections but I sincerely hope the upward trend continues!!!

Just checking I have the rules you are presently using right:

1) $100-plus in D.S. market.
2) Not resuming at this or previous start.
3) Minimum of two career starts.
4) Placed 7th or worse at last start.
5) Minimum 9 starters.

Hi, T.S.

A couple of minor changes which I have been using for most of the period.

1) If any horse has 3.5 points or more in the Form column of the Worksheet then it does not qualify,
2) The selection may have only the one career start. If more than one then it must not be resuming now or at previous start.

I have often been laying for more than the standard $33 which I record here just for convenience. From today I have layed the early selections for a standard $333 and expect do so for the later selections.

Thanks for clarifying Michaelg!!

If you'd have started at this level from the beginning of the trial your profit would be approx $2900.

Tasty.

Yes, it would have been $2,940. However for that period I've won slightly over $3,000. I can't get too confident because anything can happen and usually does.

Good onya Michaelg!!!

If anyone deserves to be ahead in this game it's you!!!

Your contributions to this forum are nothing short of inspirational.

Thanks for your encouragement and kind words, TS.

A good day today. From the 21 selections there were 21 smiles for a profit of $287.73.

Giddyup Michaelg!!!

SHA-ZAAM!!!

great day again.

Let's hope it continues.

Today's selections:

Kembla
7/10, 14, 20

Ballarat
3/2, 3
4/3, 7, 9, 11
6/1
7/1, 10

Dombeen
1/9
5/7
6/1

Gawler
2/6, 10
3/2
5/6, 15
7/5, 10
8/10, 11

Launeston
1/5
2/12, 13, 15
4/3
5/10
7/6
8/3

Ascot
2/6
3/7
5/9
6/5
7/7, 11, 14
8/1, 10 ,13

Correction - Gawler 8/11 is not a selection. In fact it is D.Scott's fave. The real selection is no.12 (and also no.10).

I hope no.11 does not win the race because I've already layed it.

Murphy's Law strikes again. Bad luck Michael.

Fortunately I decided to back it on the Exchange, winning a few cents on it.

Today's very first selection was an accident (terrible way to start the day) for a loss of $333. However the loss is currently $68.96, and with six races to go I'm hoping to finish with a small loss or even a profit.

Good call.

A terrible day. There were two accidents for a loss of $343.30.

After two days of increasing the liability from $33 to $333 the total loss for the two days is $55.50.

The system up to then had 1471 smiles from 1500 selections for a profit of $294.96 ($33 liability).

michaelg, just something I noticed about the 2 winners yesterday was that they both were ranked in the top 4 unitab/tatts ratings, maybe theres something to look at there if you haven't already.

Hi, Stugots.

I've looked at Unitab's ratings to see if I could find some sort of consistency in the accidents, but only those selections that were rated with 90 Unitab points or more. However I soon disregarded this because there were many selections that became smiles, and the resulting profit was high. As mentioned, I unfortunately only looked at the ratings but not the rankings as you suggest.

Yes, yesterday's two accidents were both ranked in the top four of Unitab's selections.

Thanks for your suggestion, Stugots which I think may have merit. I have not identified those selections that are in Unitab's top four rankings but I will do so when I get the time to go through the records, and will report the results here, hopefully before I list today's selections. I don't expect too many selections because it would not be common for D.S to price something at $100-plus yet it be in the top four in Unitab's rankings But there's only one way to find out which I will do.

Michaelg, here are some number to assist you.

Using the following rules ONLY

a) Not 1st or 2nd up
b) Min 9 prev. starts
c) Placed 7th or worse last start

produces 8.2% winners broken down as follows:-

AAP Price ..... %
1.1 - 6 ..... 4.2%
6.1 - 11 ... 2.3%
11.1 - 16 .. 0.8%
16.1 - 21 .. 0.5%
21.1 - 26 .. 0.1%
26.1 - 31 .. 0.1%
31.1 - 36 .. 0.1%
36.1+ ...... 0.1%

The price seems to be a very good guide :-)

Sample size 186k races 2m neddies.

Stugots, I have checked the accidents that were in Unitab's top 4 or equal top four rankings/selections.

There were 14 such accidents from an overall total of 31 accidents.

However, I don't know how many smiles there were from Unitab's top four rankings or their results (it would have taken ages to do so), so I can't say with any certainty if it is better to apply your suggestion as a filter.

But because almost 50% of the accidents were in the top four Unitab rankings I therefore have to assume it would have been better to omit them from the method. The resulting "smiles" strike rate may have been close to 99%, and so if I/anyone ever decides to apply some sort of stakings/recovery plan it might be less dangerous.

From today your suggestion is a filter.

If I get time I will look at betting Unitab's top four rankings.

Nice work michaelg.

I may have a suitable staking/recovery plan - are you able to bang all the the selections into one post or spreadsheet for ease of testing (assuming you have these to hand) or are we talking something more lengthy than the dead sea scrolls?

Cheers LG

Interesting Michael - just a rough count from yesterday I came up with 5 out of 38 bets ranked top 4, so approx 13% of bets.

If yesterday was typical then dropping ~ 13% of bets to eliminate 40% to 50% of winners should improve the bottom line.

Demodocus, thanks for your "simple" size.

Is (b) correct - 9 previous starts? Or should it be a minimum of 9 starters?

Unfortunately I would have to be at my computer to check out the prices of the qualifiers which I am unable/cannot do, but still it is very interesting. As you say, the price seems to be a very good guide - this might be connected to Unitab's rankings as suggested by Stugots.

L.G. unfortunately I don't have the results on the computer. I can't help your inquiry, but thanks for your offer.

Stugots, I agree with your analysis of yesterday. According to my reckoning there are three selections today that your filter has eliminated.

Today's selections:

Goulburn
1/3, 11
7/2, 14

Pinjarra
1/14, 17
2/4, 11
3/4, 5
4, 2, 6
5/7
6/11
7/16

Seymour
8/4

Oh dear. Old age, a tiny mind, and a stone heart are catching up with me. Let's try again :-)

Sole Parameters (nothing else) :-

a) Not 1st or 2nd up
b) Minimum 2 previous starts
c) Last run place 7th or worse
d) Field >8 starters

Bulk result .......... 6.27% WSR

AAPPrice ............ WSR
1.1 - 6 .......... 2.94%
6.1 - 11 ........ 1.52%
11.1 - 16 ...... 0.81%
16.1 - 21 ...... 0.26%
21.1 - 26 ...... 0.16%
26.1 - 31 ...... 0.03%
31.1 - 36 ...... 0.09%
36.1 - 41 ...... 0.05%
41+ ............. 0.06%

And there you have it :-)

Regards,

RB

It's a window into another dimension, RB!

AAP would be ************** etc?

Cheers LG

Be careful, my Lord, I run something similar every day using BetSender. There are still disasters :-)

My dog now has only three legs.

RB

All understood RB...

Tread carefully (and tell that to fido out back)

Cheers LG

You REALLY need to get a bot going. You would pay for it in no time.

T.O, unfortunately not being too familiar with computers I would be lost. I'm relatively happy without a bot.

Today was a good day. From the 12 selections there were 12 smiles for a profit of $86.10. From the three days of laying for a liability of $333 the method is currently in $30.60 profit.

Today's selections:

Scone
2/1, 3,
3/9,14
7/10
8/13, 14

Canberra
7/13
8/4, 13

Terang
2/10
5/11
7/12

Ipswich
7/12, 14, 15

Canterbury
2/7
4/14
6/3, 11

Moonee Valley
2/10
3/6, 7

Hi Michael
Can you tell me why you eliminated Terang R5, 6?

Speedy Ben.

It should have been a selection. A few days ago when Stugots suggested I omit Unitab's top four ranked I checked the results from day one and noticed there were three selections that were 96-plus points on Unitab. One of them was an accident and the other two finished second and fourth. I decided this was another filter that would be applied to the method but it completely slipped my mind to mention it here.

Sorry. Hope you or anyone didn't lay it.

I did lay it but it was not your fault in any way. I'm almost back to square for the day as Ip R6 approaches.

Hi, Speedy Ben, I hope you made a profit.

Today's 22 selections became 22 smiles for a profit of $210.26.

Today's selections:

Warwick Farm
7/11, 13
8/1, 2

Caulfield
6/1, 9
7/7

Sun Coast
3/9, 10
5/4, 17
7/3, 20
8/18

M'ville
8/2, 10

Wyong
2/14
4/10
5/1
6/1, 11

Wagga
2/2, 7
3/2
5/9, 11, 13

Coffs
1/6
2/8, 10
4/6, 7, 10
5/10
6/2

Gold Coast
4/8
7/9
8/12, 13

Sale
2/15

Toowoomba
1/9, 12

Ascot
7/8

Good luck today. I find Saturdays one of the hardest days laying longshots.

Thanks for your good wishes, U.B.

I've had a look at the results for Saturdays. There have been seven Saturdays so for five winning days for a profit of $90.26.

So I'm hopeful...