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That's a fair synopsis, what put him down in the ratings with me was the low API and last run prizemoney compared to the rest of the runners. That's not to say he's not a capable type, but I don't like digging too far back into a horse's past. It's all academic anyway, as they'll probably run the quinella now and we won't be on it ;) |
Well done to those who had Mahtoum in their 5! I only had it rated 8th. :o
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This week:
zorro (67.5 + 62.5) 130 pts QuickFunBet (77.5 + 40) 117.5 pts La Mer (87.5 + 25) 112.5 pts Filante (85 + 25) 110 pts Top Rank (87.5 + 20) 107.5 pts Sportz (77.5 + 22.5) 100 pts Dr Ron (70 + 25) 95 pts Duritz (47.5 + 35) 82.5 pts Shaun (60 + 12.5) 72.5 pts Heavyweight (50 + 17.5) 67.5 pts ubetido (57.5 + 10) 67.5 pts xpt driver (45 + 15) 60 pts The mug (40 + 17.5) 57.5 pts Jimmy (30 + 20) 50 pts Chrome Prince (25 + 15) 40 pts Overall: Sportz 450 pts Filante 417.5 pts La Mer 412.5 pts zorro 400 pts Top Rank 372.5 pts Jimmy 355 pts Duritz 352.5 pts QuickFunBet 342.5 pts Heavyweight 330 pts xpt driver 312.5 pts Shaun 292.5 pts Dr Ron 280 pts ubetido 280 pts Chrome Prince 277.5 pts The mug 270 pts |
Well done guys.....I'll slink off to a dark corner now :(
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hello..from the bottom of the sea..
Chrome..
I might join you in the corner..I'm the only one holding you up down their... I think i need a hug!! Good tipping guys. |
Chrome,
You'll be back next week. There's nothing as hardy as a punter, unbreakable. Back on the horse, young man. Good Punting |
Hi Top Rank
Sorry for answering you a bit late but to answer your question jameison valley would provide me with a high rating irrespective of anything else. The question is take it or leave it. In this case the market was right. However this horse was pretty good in its earlier days. There had been a switch of trainer. Racing first up is an unknown but at times these have got up at big odds when not expected. Had recently just been beaten in a trial. So in all i would've thrown it in. I don't normally price my horses so i wouldn't put too much credence in my odds. Sometimes theres a bees knacker between and making a decision and switching can be costly at times on the last two occassion (Irish Crusader/Mahatoum have been the sixth rater a bees knacker in difference from the 5th rater. So i just go with whatever the rating spits out. I just don't have the time to study the form as closely as some on the forum. Just as a observation when races are 1400m or more and you have fresh or first up horses and they rate well it is generally hard to get them as winners due to fitness i reckon. Up to 1200m its ok. All the best ubetido |
Okay, here's this week's two races. I usually prefer to use open races, but after looking at the fields, I think Caulfield R4 (3YO) is a more suitable race this week.
CAULFIELD R4 - WELLINGTON R.C. STAKES 1400 M ($75750) 3YO SWP (listed) 1 ECONSUL (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Nikolic 5 58 2 TIRADE Mathew Ellerton N Ryan (a) 4 58 3 CLASSICONI Shane Fliedner G Childs 9 58 4 ZANKEL (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith V Hall 10 58 5 WILDLY Rick Hore-Lacy M Flaherty 2 57.5 6 PROCESSOR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson S W Arnold 7 56.5 7 NICONERO Tony McEvoy N Rawiller 1 56.5 8 TRULY WICKED Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 13 55.5 9 SHINZIG Chris Waller Steven King 3 54.5 10 VOLITANT Michael Hibbs B Shinn (a) 8 54.5 11 CAPTIOUS (NZ) Mick Price 15 54.5 12 BROMIDE John Hawkes D Gauci 6 54.5 13 PAPPAGALLO Ross McDonald 11 54.5 14 TALONS SHOWN Lee Freedman D Oliver 12 54 15 ASTRODAME Brian Mayfield-Smith 14 53 CAULFIELD R5 - C.F. ORR STAKES 1400 M ($302000) WFA (Group1) 1 ELVSTROEM Tony Vasil N Rawiller 15 58 2 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman N Ryan (a) 10 58 3 PENTASTIC Colin Alderson B Shinn (a) 8 58 4 MR. MURPHY Lee Freedman 7 58 5 REGAL ROLLER Clinton McDonald M Flaherty 6 58 6 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison D Dunn 5 58 7 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton V Hall 3 58 8 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted B E Johns 9 58 9 RIZON Cliff Brown G Childs 1 58 10 PRETORIUS (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 11 58 11 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) Lee Freedman Steven King 4 55.5 12 VOUVRAY (NZ) Peter G Moody L Nolen 13 55.5 13 SAVABEEL Graeme Rogerson D Nikolic 12 54.5 14 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil S W Arnold 14 54.5 15 DANEHILL EXPRESS Brian Mayfield-Smith D Oliver 2 54.5 Good luck! :) |
Good choices Sportz.
I was only going to look at 3 races at Caulfield this week - races 1, 4 and 5! |
If i get them finished i have some new class ratings i want to test on these races....want be able to provide prices i don't think but will see
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CAUFIELD RACE 4
7 NICONERO 5.0 8 TRULY WICKED 7.5 14 TALONS SHOWN 8.8 1 ECONSUL 9.8 3 CLASICONI 10.4 CAUFIELD RACE 5 13 SAVABEEL 3.4 11 MAKYBE DIVA 5.6 14 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT 7.5 1 ELVSTROEM 7.6 8 LAD OF THE MANOR 16.5 |
Won't be around tomorrow, so I'll list them down to 8th in case of scratchings:
MR4 14. Talons Shown $2.25 3. Classiconi $5.50 7. Niconero $10 5. Wildly $10 12. Bromide $13 2. Tirade $34 9. Shinzig $81 6. Processor $81 MR5 14. Not a Single Doubt $1.90 8. Lad of the Manor $6.50 7. Casual Pass $11 11. Makybe Diva $12 15. Danehill Express $16 13. Savabeel $26 10. Pretorius $61 3. Pentastic $101 Best of luck all. |
Is Regal Roller scratched or something???
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Ratings Challenge (Feb 12)
Caulfield Race 4
1. Econsul $4.80 9. Shinzig $5.00 10. Volitant $9.00 2. Tirade $10.00 8. Truly Wicked $13.00 Caulfield Race 5 15. Danehill Express $6.50 1. Elvstroem $7.50 5. Regal Roller $8.00 8. Lad Of The Manor $9.00 14. Not A Single Doubt $10.00 Thanks, QFB |
Well here they are for better or worse...
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Race 4
14 Tallons shown 9 shinzig 2 tirade 3 classiconi 7 niconero Race 5 5 regal roller 1 elvstroem 15 danehill express 14 not a single doubt 13 savabeel |
Race 4
7 11x1-Niconero (1) 3.70 3 57x3-Classiconi (9) 4.10 9 0x21-Shinzig (3) 6.20 2 0x67-Tirade (4) 10.70 1 100x-Econsul (NZ) (5) 15.00 Race 5 8 12x6-Lad of the Manor (NZ) (9) 3.40 14 4x71-Not a Single Doubt (14) 4.40 5 15x5-Regal Roller (6) 5.30 15 14x2-Danehill Express (2) 6.80 10 52x3-Pretorius (NZ) (11) 7.50 |
Wellington R.C. Stks.
9 Shinzig 8 Truly Wicked 3 Classiconi 5 Wildly 1 Econsul C.F. Orr Stks. 14 Not A Single Doubt 8 Lad Of The Manor 5 Regal Roller 13 Savabeel 11 Makybe Diva |
RACE 4
14. Talons Shown $5.0 7. Niconero $6.0 3. Classiconi $7.0 9. Shinzig $8.0 4. Zankel $10.0 RACE 5 15. Danehill Express $3.75 5. Regal Roller $4.4 14. Not A Single Doubt $5.3 1. Elvstroem $7.5 8. Lad Of The Manner $8.0 |
Race 4:
Classiconi $4.40 Niconero $5.40 Talons Shown $5.40 Tirade $9.00 Truly Wicked $10.50 Race 5: Regal Roller $3.80 Elvstroem $5.00 Casual Pass $6.50 Not A Single Doubt $9.00 Danehill Express $10.50 |
R4
9 SHINZIG $2.70 3 CLASSICONI $9.50 14 TALONS SHOWN $11.10 7 NICONERO $11.10 15 ASTRODAME $13.40 R5 5 REGAL ROLLER $2.40 14 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT $4.70 15 DANEHILL EXPRESS $7.20 1 ELVSTROEM $9.90 11 MAKYBE DIVA $9.90 Processor was equal 5th rater in R4 but I went with Astrodame. Bit unsure about that. |
Here are mine, they are to 80%
race 4 2.30 seln mgn price name 2 0.0 $9.9 TIRADE 3 0.0 $9.9 CLASSICONI 8 0.2 $10.8 TRULY WICKED-NZ 15 0.4 $12.0 ASTRODAME 12 0.5 $12.1 BROMIDE race 5 3.10 seln mgn price name 5 0.0 $2.4 REGAL ROLLER 13 2.6 $17.8 SAVABEEL 14 2.6 $17.9 NOT A SINGLE DOU 1 2.8 $22.1 ELVSTROEM 7 2.8 $23.7 CASUAL PASS Good luck all. |
Ratings Challenge
Wellington Stks 1. Econsul 2. Classiconi 3. Niconero 4. Truly Wicked 5. Astrodame C.F Orr Stks 1. Not A Single Doubt 2. Regal Roller 3. Elvstroem 4. Savabeel 5. Danehill Express Good Punting |
A slight change to my rankings for R4:
9 SHINZIG $2.70 3 CLASSICONI $9.50 7 NICONERO $11.10 14 TALONS SHOWN $11.10 15 ASTRODAME $13.40 |
r4
8- Truly wicked 3.20 14- Talons shown 3.20 3- classiconi 5.50 6- processor 12.0 9- shinzing 30.0 (unrealistic) r5 11- makybe diva 3.00 1- elvstroem 5.80 5- regal roller 6.0 7- casual pass 9.0 8- lad of the manor 9.0 good day all! |
ratings challange
Race 4
3 Classiconi 3.oo 8 Truly Wicked 4.00 9 Shinzig 6.00 2 Tirade 7.50 5 Wildly 8.00 Race 5 8 Lad Of The Manor 3.00 5 Regal Roller 3.50 14 Not A Single Doubt 5.00 10 Pretorius 8.00 4 Mr. Murphy 11.00 |
Gday All
here are my ideas on the 2 races : Race 4 2:30 PM Wellington RC Stakes Set Weight With Penalties 3yo Listed Race Apprentices Cannot Claim 2 $5.0 Tirade 14 $6.7 Talons Shown 5 $9.0 Wildly 8 $9.0 Truly Wicked 3 $12.0 Classiconi Race 5 3:10 PM CF Orr Stakes Weight For Age Group 1 Apprentices Cannot Claim 8 $4.8 Lad Of The Manor 5 $6.3 Regal Roller 14 $6.3 Not A Single Doubt 1 $11.3 Elvstroem 10 $11.3 Pretorius |
I can't believe what has happend...this goes to show you really need to check calculations....i was adjusting my excel sheet and relised for the past 3 months that i had an error........when ever a horse beaten legths was over 10 the excel she was dropping the first digit....so a horse finisjing 10.5 lenghts was coming up at 0.5....now thats bad.
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Sorry Shaun, I know I shouldn't laugh at that, but it's funny. :)
Yep, you're right. It does show that you should check everything thoroughly. |
This week proved to be a bit tough.
ubetido (35 + 50) 85 pts Top Rank (35 + 40) 75 pts La Mer (30 + 37.5) 67.5 pts Sportz (40 + 25) 65 pts Filante (30 + 35) 65 pts Dr Ron (20 + 45) 65 pts zorro (40 + 12.5) 52.5 pts Duritz (7.5 + 42.5) 50 pts Heavyweight (32.5 + 15) 47.5 pts The mug (5 + 42.5) 47.5 pts QuickFunBet (5 + 40) 45 pts xpt driver (7.5 + 32.5) 40 pts Jimmy (10 + 17.5) 27.5 pts Chrome Prince (20 + 7.5) 27.5 pts kiwi (10 + 12.5) 22.5 pts Overall standings: Sportz 515 pts Filante 482.5 pts La Mer 480 pts zorro 452.5 pts Top Rank 447.5 pts Duritz 402.5 pts QuickFunBet 387.5 pts Jimmy 382.5 pts Heavyweight 377.5 pts ubetido 365 pts xpt driver 352.5 pts Dr Ron 345 pts The mug 317.5 pts Chrome Prince 305 pts Shaun 292.5 pts |
Well done to the winners today and the overall leaders in the comp.
Perhaps some people might like to do a post mortem of why they did so well or poorly. I'll take the lead here and I did poorly.... In the first leg Race 4 Niconero's best run was last start over 1200m at Caulfield in an Open class race. The horse was jumping 200m in distance and heaps of class, I didn't think it could go on to improve that much. Econsul had never done much first up so I left it unrated pretty much. I liked Tirade a lot going on the run in the Grp 3 Guineas Prelude over the same distance and track, but that was last preparation, and should he have lived up to that form should have brained 'em. Truly Wicked had won a Group 2 at MV and Classiconi had won a Listed Race at Flemington last prep. I think I need to look harder at recent form. In the second leg, although it was spruiked that they had Elvstroem set for this race, trainers often spruik their own horses often to prove fruitless at the end of the day. I did miss looking at the beaten margins first up and looked at the placings. First up Elvis had run 0.4 lengths 3rd in the Bletchingly and 1.4 lengths 5th in the Zeditave. So the fifth was really equivalent to a second or third. Some lessons to be learned. |
On the point of recent form I agree with you 100% chrome. Since the start of the challenge i have missed several winners that had high recent ratings that I ignored as flukes, aand then went back further to get a more realistic rating which cost me a couple of winners. I guess the if we learn by our mistakes then the challenge has proved useful.
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Well Chrome, I'm surprised (and a bit embarassed) that I'm leading this thing. You see, I've really only been using ratings on a consistent basis for over a month. What I do is so damn simple, but it seems to have been working pretty well so far. (Using my ratings, my best bet today was Miss Gloryhunter in the last in Brisbane)
I must admit that I use the ratings from both the Tas Tab website and the Unitab website to help me get my weight ratings. Considering the info on those two sites is totally free, you just can't beat them. Then I add a few bonuses or penalties regarding days since last start, jockeys, barriers and state of the track. For me, it's still a learning process though. There are a few things I have to look at to try to improve my ratings even further. Concerning today's races, I had Savabeel down far too low and I've gone back and looked at the ratings and saw where I went wrong there. I definitely think I rated the other 3 year olds too high by comparison. On pure class, he should have been ahead of them, even first-up. As for the other race, quite happy to get the quinella in my 5 picks. Could possibly have had Wildly higher up given the state of the track. As for recent form, I always use the horse's last run in my ratings (unless it's first-up or the rating for that run was WAY below average). I don't use just one race to find a base rating though. I use two and average them. Normally it's the horse's last start and the best rating from the previous two starts. So I don't usually go back further than a horse's last 3 runs, unless it is 1st-up, 2nd-up or racing over a totally different distance or track condition. |
Interesting post Sportz, thanks for that. Using LS and best of previous two at first glance seems flawed, but what it will do is throw up the types we should really be backing - the consistent ones.
We'll chat more about this soon. Duritz. |
Well considering i have had a faulty spread sheet things are not to bad....my ratings are not really designed to handle 1st and 2nd ups i prefer a feww runs but anyways i re-rated yesterdays races to see how it turned out with the spread sheet fixed....i hope.
MR4 7 Niconero (1) $5.32 14 Talons Shown (12) $6.04 5 Wildly (2) $7.19 8 Truly Wicked (13) $9.54 3 Classiconi (9) $9.95 MR5 7 Casual Pass (3) $7.28 8 Lad of the Manor (NZ) (9) $7.42 15 Danehill Express (2) $7.64 10 Pretorius (NZ) (11) $8.32 14 Not a Single Doubt (14) $8.32 |
Hi all
Sportz how do you find the ratings on the two tab sites. How do you interpret them. Do you look that they agree on both sites etc. I dont look at form, past runs,days,weight, jockey etc. For example yesterday Makybe diva was high up in the ratings however one would know that at 1400m/caufield/first up that it would be less likely of a positive result. When spreading over 5 selections light analysis can be forgiving. If i was to narrow it down to say top 2 then i would study the ratings a bit more indepth or use an external source for comparison. I would think. I haven't used or viewed TAS TAB i have unitab. cheers ubetido |
Here's the Tas Tab form guide:
http://www.tastab.com.au/racebet/fo...num/default.asp And here's the Unitab website: http://www.tabonline.com.au/ On the Tas Tab form guide, click on a horse's name and it'll give you a complete form rundown for that horse including a rating for each run. The rating will be in the form of a number like 645 or 725 or something. To convert them to weight ratings, I simply slip a decimal point in there and make it 64.5 or 72.5. Technically speaking, doing that is probably not 100% accurate, but it's worked out okay for me. So, I get the two ratings I want and then average them out. In that instance, it would be 68.5. Next, I add the horse's Unitab rating. These ratings are a score out of 100 on the right side of the screen beside each runner. Before using it in my ratings, I divide it by 2 though so it's a score out of 50 instead of out of 100. So, if the horse has a Unitab rtg of 93, I turn that into 46.5 and add that to the rating I have from the Tas Tab site. Then I add small bonuses and penalties depending on the days since last start, the jockey, the barrier and the state of the track. Once I've done that, I'll have a total from which I subtract the horse's handicap weight and what's left is the horse's rating for today's race. |
To Sportz
I think your treatment of the tassie tote ratings is pretty close to the mark sportz, on a quick comparison with the ozeform ratings, the average divisor between the two figures appears to be about 10.5 although it ranges from there up to 12 but I would not trust those ones as ozeform have made some errors in the past as pointed out on this forum previously.
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I must say it's very generous of you Sportz to outline your method in such detail, especially when you're leading this competition. I've actually looked at the Unitab ratings and think it's really a great starting point, but does need something extra. I'm not looking at this from a ratings point of view, rather what I need is an accurate prediction of the market price to some degree at least. I've looked at wa tab prepost and it is a very rough guide only. Thanks again. |
Hi
Thanks for that explanation Sportz. Much appreciated. ubetido |
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