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-   -   My first system attempt (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21415)

max 16th May 2011 03:49 PM

Selection for today:

OPTION 1
20110516MON ALBANY1, numbers 7 for 5 units, 12 for 3 units, and 3 for 3 units

Have not had any time to check the W2B site today.

max 16th May 2011 08:56 PM

No smile today.

max 23rd May 2011 12:42 PM

No smiles for Fri and Sat either.

Results for Fri 20 May:

OPTION 1:
Return 66.40
Outlay 93.00
Profit -$26.60
POT% -28.60%

OPTION 2:
Return 58.40
Outlay 24.00
Profit $34.40
POT% 143.33%

OPTION 3:
Return 4.00
Outlay 47.00
Profit -$43.00
POT -91%

Results for Sat 21 May:

OPTION 1:
Return 55.90
Outlay 81.00
Profit -$25.10
POT% -30.99%

OPTION 2:
Return 11.50
Outlay 11.00
Profit $0.50
POT% 4.55%

OPTION 3:
Return 235.10
Outlay 159.00
Profit $76.10
POT 48%

max 23rd May 2011 12:45 PM

So far to date:

OPTION 1:
Return 944.70
Outlay 905.00
Profit $39.70
POT% 4.39%

OPTION 2:
Return 686.40
Outlay 436.00
Profit $250.40
POT% 57.43%

OPTION 3:
Return 467.70
Outlay 480.00
Profit -$12.30
POT -3%

Will have to look at other ideas. A lot of work and the more I look the worst it seems to get.

max 25th May 2011 12:29 PM

Selections for today Wed 25 May:

OPTION 3:
Belmont7 8,3,4
Canterbury3 1,8,11,9*
Canterbury5 2,5,3
Morphettville7 11,3,4
Morphetvtille8 5,7,6,8*

The * are when >5th fav is at same odds as the 5th Fav. Ignore for betting but keep in mind when checking results.

max 1st June 2011 08:59 AM

Results for Wed 25 May:

OPTION 3:
Return 94.60
Outlay 57.00
Profit $37.60
POT 66%

Good result and once again it was the race that did not have duplicate selections for 5th fav.

I am hesitant to continue with this system as it takes a good hour to process all 3 options each morning and the results just are not what I was hoping for. I will check it once or twice a week. If I had time I would put all races in for all days and start looking at filters such as track conditions, metro vs country, days of the week, number of horses in the race and so on. Just all takes too much time.

max 4th June 2011 08:14 AM

OPTION 3 RESULTS FOR THIS WEEK (COULD NOT DO MONDAY):

20110531TUE DUBBO6 select 6 for 4 units, 13 for 4 units and 11 for 3 units
20110601WED BELMONTPARK1 select 1 for 4 units, 11 for 4 units and 2 for 3 units
20110601WED BELMONTPARK5 select 3 for 5 units, 5 for 3 units and 11 for 3 units
20110601WED BELMONTPARK8 select 6 for 4 units, 15 for 4 units and 4 for 3 units
20110602THU STRATHALBYN3 select 3 for 4 units, 5 for 4 units and 10 for 4 units
20110602THU ROCKHAMPTON7 select 2 for 5 units, 4 for 3 units and 5 for 3 units
20110603FRI CANBERRA7 select 9 for 5 units, 3 for 4 units and 6 for 3 units
20110603FRI TAMWORTH2 select 10 for 5 units, 4 for 3 units and 11 for 3 units
20110603FRI TAMWORTH8 select 5 for 5 units, 1 for 4 units and 7 for 3 units

RETURN 110.10
OUTLAY 102.00
PROFIT $8.10
POT 8%

max 4th June 2011 08:20 AM

Selections for Sat 4 June:

OPTION 3:
20110604SAT BELMONTPARK2 select 3 for 6 units, 6 for 3 units and 9 for 3 units
20110604SAT EAGLEFARM5 select 21 for 4 units, 14 for 4 units and 20 for 4 units
20110604SAT KILMORE4 select 7 for 4 units, 13 for 4 units and 10 for 3 units
20110604SAT ROSEHILL3 select 8 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units and 1 for 3 units
20110604SAT MORPHETTVILLE1 select 3 for 5 units, 4 for 4 units and 7 for 3 units
20110604SAT NEWCASTLE6 select 7 for 5 units, 4 for 3 units and 13 for 3 units
20110604SAT NEWCASTLE8 select 6 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units and 3 for 3 units
20110604SAT ROSEHILL8 select 17 for 5 units, 16 for 3 units and 3 for 3 units
20110604SAT SANDOWN8 select 1 for 5 units, 11 for 3 units and 9 for 3 units

max 5th June 2011 11:56 AM

Results for Sat:

Return 67.00
Outlay 103.00
Profit -$36.00
POT -35%

PURE SELECTIONS LOST 86%
NON PURE GAINED 18%

So no real indication that I am on the right track yet with this system.

I have identified some filters to restrict the races selected where the 1st or 2nd favourite has good odds and actually does win. But further investigation is required.

Bhagwan 5th June 2011 10:29 PM

Try it on fields of 12-14 runners only.

This should give you stronger dividends.

What can kill the plan is the short priced favs getting up all day knocking your horse off at the finishing line.

So maybe only target the 12-14 runner races where the fav tends to get up a little less.


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