Schmile

It has been a good couple of days hasn't it. Cleared 23.6 units on 48 lays since start of Aus racing yesterday which is pretty good for the bot. In saying that though I have just guarenteed at least 4 losing lays in a row :eek:

Mark I'll have a close look at what you've put up. I've often wondered ;)

CP, every race is different but I'm usually somewhere between liability and payout.
Not the last 6 months no, UK early markets have all but disappeared but that started several years ago. My turnover on Aus races has actually greatly increased over time.
Odds on, if I'm working it's just another race to me. I prefer it when there's a shorty because you've got good % in just one runner, makes making a book that much easier. Black Caviar is a case in point, I held more on each of her last 2 races than I did on all of last Saturday. They also give you a chance at a bigger win with a lower risk.
I'd like to know how you've smoothed the roller coaster if you don't mind emailing me.
As for system hunters (************ts) the last to steal one of my ideas is now out of business....wonder why.

michaelg, yes USA I tread lightly and usually get out when in front.
I do use SP where I can, some races are really good. Rocky R5 just run was 104%, not that I was on. Rightly or wrongly I'm having the afternoon off.

lomaca, appreciate your opinion but I bet it won't change a thing.

I guess that means I am just an AVERAGE PUNTER , as I have seen zero posted that will make me believe that someone here has something that is worth more than what I have.

Once I get my $7.6k up to $10k , I'll post some stuff.
Prolly take a couple months though , because I'm only making $1k a month - often less.

I disagree Moeee,

On those figures, you're much better than average!!

The 'average' punter hits the TAB after 3-5 minutes of form 'study' and watches their ill informed selection fail time and again, or gets a small win and doubles it up, only to lose, again.

If you're in profit, well done!

The Schmile

That's OK Mark, what you do and what I do are worlds apart.
Lay betting horses is more foreign to me than speaking chinese.
At least I speak a couple of words in chinese.

Thanks Shmile - I believe I'm doing better than many , if not most.

But my AVERAGE PUNTER was in response to Lomacas usage.

Seeing as you asked, I don't mind putting it up here.
I just didn't want to hijack the thread.

Market percentages at SP have tightened up quite significantly over recent months.
I think a few sharp minds cottoned on and now the margins at the shortest and longest ends of the market are much closer to zero.
It's the middle ground where the odds are still very very good (for laying).
So SP is still profitable but tightened up for me.

As an example average SP market percentage is now 100.58% a far cry from the 103% two years ago :(
This includes the variances of 104% or better and 96% and worse.

This is why I'm somewhat amazed at the results you got, although I realise you are creating your own markets rather than betting into an SP market.

My strategy would be more profitable laying those under $3.00 to payout $100 and those over $11.00 to payout $100 and anything between to payout say $120 or perhaps more.

If I were to simply lay the field to fixed liability of say $30.00 (the minimum)
I have turned over close to $730,000 for a profit of $3,550 or 0.49% before commission :eek:
This is vastly different to the previous years.

But again, when things like this happen, something else has to give, and give it does, better than laying the entire field ever was (for me).
That's about as much as I can say about the actual strategy.

The rollercoaster has been something that has concerned me for quite some time, it's not the results, it's the inability to utilise a bigger percentage of the bank afraid of those dreaded runs where every fancied or second fancied horse gets up in Aus, then UK, then USA for a day.
It happens often enough, that I cannot risk higher liability than my set percentage of bank.
The greatest damage comes from those odds on favourites that get on a run of success. They are still profitable to lay, but can really do some damage when they're hot.
So I simply bet back @ SP anything odds on for a fixed amount.
This only reduces the liability, but if it gets rolled I still make money.
If it wins I lose less money.

Hey I've only now had a look at these posts and back to square one. Of course all systems have BAD losing runs.
Backing favourites at 30% (?) strike rate alone you can back Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and still possibly not get a winner.
I suggest that no matter what selection system you are following be prepared for the dreaded outs but if you have figures to show that over a long period it has a reasonable average ( not an impracticable figure) plan to survive.
I have a staking system ( not rocket science ) which increases bets after a winner only. How many plans are chasing losses - 8 losers winner at $2.50, another 6 losers. How is your increasing bets after losers going now? Also after a winner at a certain sequence I return to GO and start again. All because I know that my averages will kick back in and I have learnt to, sometimes, cut losses ( I am very wimpy, not a gambler).
It all depends on your selection process. As wiser heads have said Keep It Simple, then if it proves itself over a period stick with it through good and bad because they are very hard to find.
This wisdom after a few sherberts.
Good Luck
Midas

Well said TheSchmile.

Some people here think that every post is somehow directed at them personally.
Nothing could be further from the truth, my comments were just a general observation about punters, you so eloquently described.

Good luck

No worries Iomaca,

We have plenty of time to refine our systems, check this out!! :)

Humans to live forever through Robots

The Schmile