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- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Profiting from the Crowd (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=23914)

Interested as well AP, but just don't know how to apply this new piece of info.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngryPixie

TS

I'm not quite ready to form any conclusions yet as I've not really committed anything to analysis. There looks to be a profit to be made from backing the top rated selection if you can secure say between 30% to 100% overs. I wouldn't be going much over that though, and this conclusion is really only from sight. The prices used here are reasonably close for the top selection but I'd be ignoring anything else. I'm intending on re-pricing everything soon.

I've done a small amount of testing on weekday country races and the Crowd Rating appear to perfom quite well there. If you stick to the good to dead tracks the Saturday country races probably perform to the average.

Sorry I've really not given it much thought yet :)

Thanks for your reply and honesty AngryPixie,

In my experience with ratings, Good to Dead tracks have generally performed better. In the case of Heavy tracks, it appears the crowd are generally onto it, though somewhat cautious, so overs can be attained. Personally, I'm not afraid to back a wet tracker if they are top of the ratings and all their form is on wet tracks.

I for one am always looking at your posts AngryPixie, as I greatly respect your knowledge and if I recall from one of your posts, you're a muso, so you're alright with me!!

Have a great night.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jose

Interested as well AP, but just don't know how to apply this new piece of info.

Jose

If you can wait a month or so we both might have more of an idea.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSchmile

I for one am always looking at your posts AngryPixie, as I greatly respect your knowledge

Thanks TS, nice of you to say so :blush:

Quote:

and if I recall from one of your posts, you're a muso, so you're alright with me!!

Have been and somebody is trying to convince me to come out of retirement but the spandex doesn't fit as well as it did in the 80's.

One application this could have is the jockeys challenge. Never bet on this before but have had 4 successes from 4 attempts over the last 2 weeks. My early impression is that its a very inexact market - find a market where there is a good "lay", dutch 3 or 4 to profit from this imperfection.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AngryPixie

Thanks TS, nice of you to say so :blush:

Have been and somebody is trying to convince me to come out of retirement but the spandex doesn't fit as well as it did in the 80's.

Aah AP is Plastic Bertrand?

:D

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven

One application this could have is the jockeys challenge. Never bet on this before but have had 4 successes from 4 attempts over the last 2 weeks.

Using the Crowd Ratings? That would be impressive :D

Quote:

My early impression is that its a very inexact market - find a market where there is a good "lay", dutch 3 or 4 to profit from this imperfection.

My original thought for these ratings was to gather the top three in a group overlay but the strike rate of the top three is a little too low for this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince

Aah AP is Plastic Bertrand?

A bit more leather than plastic back then, and more nylon and elastic these days. :)

Results to August 11th

A pleasing 32.14% of top raters winning today. Our first dead heat too.

ALL track conditions
Top 1) won 72.5 from 250 (29.0%)
Top 2) won 106.5 from 250 (42.6%)
Top 3) won 146.5 from 250 (58.6%)
Top 4) won 174.5 from 250 (69.8%)
Top 5) won 186.5 from 250 (74.6%)

GOOD and DEAD tracks only
Top 1) won 53.5 from 170 (31.5%)
Top 2) won 75.5 from 170 (44.5%)
Top 3) won 97.5 from 170 (57.5%)
Top 4) won 111.5 from 170 (65.5%)
Top 5) won 122.5 from 170 (72.0%)

Crowd Ratings August 18th

RHIL Race 1
1 69 $16.50
2 60 $379.90
3 100 $3.80
4 93 $4.60
5 76 $9.40
6 93 $4.60
7 91 $4.90

RHIL Race 2
1 99 $3.70
2 100 $3.60
3 82 $6.40
4 --- ---
5 82 $6.40
6 75 $9.30
7 79 $7.40
8 73 $10.70
9 60 $352.90
10 63 $42.30

RHIL Race 4
1 100 $4.60
2 94 $5.30
3 --- ---
4 100 $4.60
5 60 $450.90
6 91 $5.90
7 83 $7.90
8 94 $5.30
9 63 $54.00
10 94 $5.30
11 94 $5.30

RHIL Race 5
1 76 $10.00
2 86 $6.20
3 64 $37.20
4 70 $15.80
5 90 $5.40
6 72 $13.20
7 82 $7.30
8 100 $4.10
9 90 $5.40
10 76 $10.00
11 82 $7.30
12 60 $401.90
13 96 $4.50

RHIL Race 6
1 87 $4.50
2 91 $3.90
3 --- ---
4 100 $3.00
5 60 $299.00
6 63 $35.80
7 69 $13.00
8 70 $11.70
9 72 $9.80

RHIL Race 7
1 71 $9.60
2 66 $17.00
3 77 $6.30
4 100 $2.70
5 69 $11.60
6 68 $13.00
7 69 $11.60
8 60 $267.20
9 82 $4.90
10 62 $45.30
11 77 $6.30
12 68 $13.00
13 63 $32.00

RHIL Race 8
1 67 $21.10
2 83 $6.70
3 --- ---
4 100 $3.90
5 72 $12.60
6 65 $28.90
7 81 $7.30
8 95 $4.40
9 86 $5.90
10 90 $5.10
11 --- ---
12 81 $7.30
13 --- ---
14 67 $21.10
15 77 $9.00
16 --- ---
17 60 $382.30

CAUL Race 1
1 83 $6.40
2 100 $3.70
3 80 $7.40
4 --- ---
5 95 $4.20
6 --- ---
7 --- ---
8 90 $4.90
9 --- ---
10 60 $367.60
11 60 $367.60

CAUL Race 2
1 --- ---
2 76 $8.00
3 93 $3.90
4 100 $3.20
5 69 $13.90
6 84 $5.40
7 71 $11.50
8 --- ---
9 60 $321.10
10 62 $54.40
11 76 $8.00

CAUL Race 5
1 --- ---
2 78 $4.40
3 60 $198.60
4 100 $2.00
5 --- ---
6 63 $23.80
7 --- ---
8 78 $4.40

CAUL Race 6
1 68 $19.30
2 92 $5.00
3 100 $4.00
4 --- ---
5 70 $15.60
6 100 $4.00
7 64 $36.80
8 74 $11.20
9 78 $8.80
10 68 $19.30
11 90 $5.30
12 --- ---
13 60 $397.00

CAUL Race 7
1 92 $5.50
2 --- ---
3 100 $4.40
4 83 $7.60
5 66 $27.80
6 71 $15.60
7 77 $10.20
8 71 $15.60
9 98 $4.60
10 94 $5.20
11 83 $7.60
12 --- ---
13 60 $436.20
14 92 $5.50

CAUL Race 8
1 69 $15.20
2 78 $7.80
3 98 $3.70
4 60 $350.50
5 96 $3.90
6 100 $3.50
7 --- ---
8 --- ---
9 --- ---
10 --- ---
11 67 $19.30

DOOM Race 2
1 60 $343.10
2 98 $3.60
3 100 $3.50
4 94 $4.10
5 70 $13.50
6 76 $8.50

DOOM Race 3
1 100 $2.70
2 --- ---
3 75 $7.10
4 60 $269.60
5 82 $4.90
6 77 $6.30
7 65 $20.30
8 63 $32.30
9 68 $13.10
10 74 $7.60

DOOM Race 4
1 71 $8.90
2 82 $4.60
3 60 $250.00
4 66 $15.90
5 100 $2.50
6 62 $42.40
7 68 $12.10
8 79 $5.30

DOOM Race 5
1 100 $3.70
2 88 $5.30
3 95 $4.30
4 74 $10.50
5 88 $5.30
6 78 $8.20
7 --- ---
8 60 $370.10

DOOM Race 6
1 81 $5.50
2 63 $34.30
3 62 $48.60
4 --- ---
5 81 $5.50
6 79 $6.00
7 66 $18.30
8 --- ---
9 71 $10.30
10 74 $8.10
11 60 $286.80
12 100 $2.90
13 66 $18.30

DOOM Race 7
1 88 $5.50
2 85 $6.20
3 97 $4.20
4 77 $9.00
5 100 $3.90
6 65 $29.00
7 85 $6.20
8 70 $15.10
9 --- ---
10 67 $21.20
11 65 $29.00
12 63 $46.10
13 65 $29.00
14 70 $15.10
15 72 $12.70
16 --- ---
17 60 $384.80

DOOM Race 8
1 --- ---
2 --- ---
3 --- ---
4 100 $3.50
5 86 $5.30
6 84 $5.70
7 60 $343.10
8 88 $4.90
9 68 $16.70
10 64 $31.80
11 62 $58.20
12 80 $6.90
13 64 $31.80

MORP Race 1
1 100 $4.10
2 90 $5.40
3 88 $5.80
4 86 $6.20
5 77 $9.40
6 84 $6.70
7 98 $4.30
8 60 $401.90
9 65 $30.30

MORP Race 4
1 73 $13.90
2 --- ---
3 100 $4.60
4 98 $4.80
5 94 $5.40
6 79 $9.60
7 60 $455.80
8 94 $5.40
9 98 $4.80

MORP Race 5
1 78 $5.80
2 --- ---
3 69 $11.30
4 74 $7.40
5 100 $2.60
6 83 $4.50
7 63 $31.10
8 60 $259.80

MORP Race 6
1 100 $2.50
2 62 $42.00
3 76 $6.20
4 60 $247.60
5 --- ---
6 84 $4.10
7 63 $29.60
8 76 $6.20

MORP Race 7
1 --- ---
2 69 $13.90
3 75 $8.50
4 88 $4.60
5 82 $5.80
6 84 $5.40
7 100 $3.20
8 73 $9.80
9 61 $93.10
10 60 $321.10

COWR Race 2
1 91 $5.20
2 100 $4.00
3 72 $13.10
4 84 $6.60
5 91 $5.20
6 73 $12.10
7 76 $9.90
8 87 $5.90
9 91 $5.20
10 70 $15.60
11 69 $17.20
12 60 $397.00

K_GR Race 7
1 80 $8.80
2 71 $15.70
3 82 $8.00
4 91 $5.70
5 96 $4.90
6 95 $5.10
7 100 $4.40
8 95 $5.10
9 78 $9.70
10 --- ---
11 85 $7.00
12 84 $7.30
13 60 $438.70

TATU Race 8
1 --- ---
2 --- ---
3 --- ---
4 --- ---
5 100 $2.30
6 60 $223.10
7 85 $3.60
8 62 $37.80
9 75 $5.90
10 --- ---
11 67 $12.30

GCST Race 4
1 93 $4.90
2 86 $6.10
3 100 $4.00
4 79 $8.30
5 97 $4.30
6 60 $397.00
7 84 $6.60
8 62 $67.30
9 69 $17.20

GCST Race 5
1 87 $4.70
2 94 $3.80
3 73 $9.60
4 60 $316.20
5 100 $3.20
6 71 $11.30
7 64 $29.30
8 62 $53.60
9 73 $9.60
10 60 $316.20

GCST Race 8
1 100 $4.10
2 94 $4.80
3 60 $401.90
4 90 $5.40
5 76 $10.00
6 92 $5.10
7 70 $15.80
8 86 $6.20
9 --- ---
10 72 $13.20
11 68 $19.50
12 60 $401.90