Yeah, no worries.

Now that I've explained in great detail what I've been doing so far to be on top of the comp, I expect I'll probably plummet down the leaderboard and end up at the bottom in a screaming heap. :D

Thats usually the way it goes. Murphys Law is always nearby.

Actually Sportz, I'd like to email you if possible, I think I've come up with something that looks o.k. at this point using the Unitab ratings as a base rating only.

Applying my own points additions and deductions, I have come up with some that rate 101.

There have been 10 of them over the last two Saturday's returning 21 units.

Now admittedly this is early days, but if anyone has a spreadsheet of past meetings with the unitab ratings, then I'd know a bit better.

Anyhow, if you're interested drop me a line:

racestats at hotmail dot com

Also when it's finalised, I owe Kenny Victor a good system, haven't forgotten you mate ;)

Oh what the hell, may as well post it here for everyone, otherwise my email will be full!

Take Unitab rating.
If horse is first starter deduct 1 point.
If horse is first up, and has not won first up before, deduct 1 point.
If horse is first up, but has won first up before, ADD 1 point.
If horse is racing within 7 days of last start, ADD 1 point.

Miss Dansk -
Chieftilla -
Vanquished -
Arctic Park $3.00
Hero Mak $9.50
On Target $4.70
Gottatellya -
Serpent -
Omnitrader -
Miss Gloryhunter $3.80

Chrome, can I ask where Miss Dansk, Chieftilla and Vanquished ran? I can't seem to find them.

Anyway, I don't mind backing 100 raters with form something like this:
Saturdays only
Last start exactly 7 days ago
At least 1200m
At least 2 starts from a spell
At least 3 career starts
Placed last start or have a c or a b in their form.

On Saturday, qualifiers were:
Doom R4-3 Omnitrader -
Doom R8-8 Miss Gloryhunter WON
Belm R3-8 Arctic Park WON
Belm R4-4 Hero Mak WON

And another one in relation to your first-up idea:
Saturdays only
First-up
At least 3 career starts
Won first-up before
Has a c or a d in it's form

Saturday's qualifiers:
Caul R7-15 Harley Ma -
Belm R7-8 On Target WON

Just on the question of Unitab ratings. Does anyone know how they compare with the Techform ratings available on the SuperTab site?

Oh, I just realised we probably should have put this stuff in the Betting Systems Forum. Sorry.

You could perhaps use those ideas on other days too, but maybe you'd have to change the 'exactly 7 days ago' to 'no more than 7 days ago'. I would have got one from one with the first-up idea today and I think you would have got 2 from 2 Chrome.

Oh, never mind. Worked it out now. They were from the previous week I assume?

Hi La Mer,

I was under the impression that they both use Techform ratings.

Of course, I could be wrong.

No, I think Unitab's ratings are derived basically from a formula similar to the AAP neurals. One thing I've noticed is that a good part of the Unitab rating is based on the horse's best career run, not necessarily it's most recent run, so you sometimes get horses coming out on top in the ratings despite not being in great current form. Can lead to some good price wins though.

Okay, I know there are two Group 1 races on this week, but they're both small fields and the top chances look fairly obvious. I'm sure most of us would be likely to come up with pretty much the same sort of ratings. So I reckon we should have a go at these two races instead this week:

WARWICK FARM R7-4.30 LIVERPOOL CITY CUP 1200 M ($100000) (GROUP 3)
1 FALKIRK (NZ) John O'Shea G Boss 9 57
2 OSCA WARRIOR Gwenda Markwell J Sheehan 2 56.5
3 TOULOUSE LAUTREC John Hawkes 18 56
4 SPORTSMAN Gregory Hickman N Rawiller 19 55.5
5 BINDING John Hawkes 3 54
6 NIPS Clarry Conners J Innes 14 54
7 PATEZZA Guy Walter H Bowman 6 53.5
8 SAM SUNG A SONG Gerald Ryan S Seamer 8 53.5
9 MUSTARD George Crowley R Graham 13 53
10 ACADEME Guy Walter 1 52.5
11 UTZON Les Bridge R Stewart 11 52
12 BUSH HONEY Guy Walter 12 52
13 PRESENTLY Bruce McLachlan J Ford 4 52
14 AMEX Alan Bailey G Scimone 5 52
15 MR CELEBRITY (NZ) Gai Waterhouse C Munce 17 52
16 MAGIC MARVO Rod Craig 15 52
17 ATHELNOTH Tiger Holland M Bell (a) 7 52
18 BESAME MUCHO Bart Cummings 16 52
19E KID GEORGE Guy Walter 10 52

MORPHETTVILLE R7-4.30 FELTEX CARPETS TOKYO CITY CUP 1600 M ($75500) (GROUP 3)
1 ALMOST NEVER Leon Macdonald Ms C Lindop 5 57
2 SURE BET Mark Minervini P Gatt 9 54.5
3 RATHER GRAND Mick Price J Bowditch 12 54
4 FINNISS D'OR Pat Barns D Carney 11 54
5 GET UP Darryl Dodson Ms H McKechnie (a) 8 54
6 GRUNDY'S CROSSING Barbara Marshman P Mertens 1 54
7 PRAY IN VAIN Stuart Gower 10 54
8 MODERN ERA Brian Mayfield-Smith A Findlay 6 53.5
9 PURE VELOCITY Tony McEvoy A Spiteri 4 53
10 COINTREAU BALL Mark Kavanagh 3 53
11 RADIANT STAR Peter G Moody J Benbow (a) 7 53
12 SHANICITY (NZ) Greg Lesnikowski 2 53

Both of those races should provide a REAL test of our rating methods.

Good luck. :)

Nice big fields!! Been a while since I've done form for good old crooked Adelaide.......

Yep, they'll be a real test. Just getting the winner somewhere in our top 5 will be an effort.

Warwick Farm Race 7
Binding
Presently
Patezza
Utzon
Besame Mucho

Morphettville Race 7
Finniss D'or
Pure Velocity
Grundy's Crossing
Get Up
Almost Never

A real dinky die challenge

Gday All

Because I won't be around near a computer tomorrow, I have posted 7 runners to cover scratchings... ignore 6 and 7 if none of my selections are scratched

MORPHETTVILLE Race 7
FELTEX CARPETS TOKYO CITY CUP
1 $4.59 ALMOST NEVER
2 $6.12 SURE BET
3 $6.12 RATHER GRAND
5 $8.20 GET UP
4 $10.93 FINNISS D'OR
9 $10.93 PURE VELOCITY
6 $14.34 GRUNDY'S CROSSING

WARWICK FARM Race 7
LIVERPOOL CITY CUP
1 $5.31 FALKIRK
11 $5.31 UTZON
18 $7.08 BESAME MUCHO
5 $9.48 BINDING
7 $12.64 PATEZZA
8 $16.59 SAM SUNG A SONG
15 $16.59 MR CELEBRITY

Ratings Challenge (Feb 19)
 

Warwick Farm Race 7
5. Binding $6.00
11. Utzon $6.50
1. Falkirk $10.00
2. Osca Warrior $11.00
15. Mr Celebrity $13.00

Morphettville Race 7
2. Sure Bet $4.50
4. Finnis D'Or $7.00
8. Modern Era $9.00
6. Grundy's Crossing $9.50
1.Almost Never $11.00

Thanks,
QFB

Hey Sportz
Wont be online till tomorrow arvo, so have thrown in my top 6 in case of a scratching. Mind you for the sydney race i may require a top 17!!!

s7

18 Besame Mucho 2.70
11 Utzon 6.50
7 Patezza 10.0
13 Presently 10.0
15 Mr Celebrity 10.0
9 Mustard 15.0

a7

8 Modern Era 4.30
6 Grundys Crossing 4.30
3 Rather grand 6.50
9 Pure Velocity 8.60
4 Finniss Dor 15.0
2 sure bet 16.0

cheers n good luck

WF

18. $4.60

8. $ 5.50

4 $ 7.00

7 $ 9.00

11 $ 11.00


Morph

8 $ 3.20

7 $ 3.50

3 $ 6.50

1 $ 9.00

2 $ 11.00

SR7
7 Patezza 3.50
11 Utzon 3.90
1 Falkirk 6.20
18 Besame Mucho 10.70
15 Mr Celebrity 12.50

AR7
1 Almost Never 2.70
3 Rather Grand 4.40
2 Sure Bet 7.50
9 Pure Velocity 7.50
4 Finniss D'Or 9.30

Here's mine, to 80%. The WF race very eve, wouldn't be rushing to take shorts anything

MPH 7 4.30
seln mgn price name
6 0.0 $6.4 GRUNDYS CROSSING
8 0.5 $7.9 MODERN ERA
3 0.7 $9.0 RATHER GRAND
1 0.7 $9.6 ALMOST NEVER
5 1.4 $14.6 GET UP


WF 7 4.30
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $8.6 FALKIRK-NZ
18 0.2 $9.4 BESAME MUCHO
10 0.9 $14.5 ACADEME
11 1.0 $15.3 UTZON
7 1.0 $15.3 PATEZZA

Good luck all

Slipping further down the ladder

S7
11 Utzon
5 Binding
7 Patezza
1 Falkirk
18 Besame Mucho

A7
3 Rather Grand
1 Almost Never
4 Finniss D'Or
9 Pure Velocity
8 Modern Era

Warwick Farm: Race 7
Falkirk $4.20
Toulouse Lautrec $5.20
Utzon $6.50
Besame Mucho $8.50
Binding $10.00

Morphettville: Race 7
Almost Never $3.90
Rather Grand $5.20
Grundy's Crossing $7.00
Modern Era $9.00
Finniss D'Or $10.50

MORPHETTVILLE RACE 7

1 ALMOST NEVER 3.7
3 RATHER GRAND 6.1
6 GRUNDYS CROSSING 6.3
8 MODERN ERA 10.5
4 FINISS D'OR 12.1

WARWICK FARM RACE 7
5 BINDING 2.4
3 TOULOUSE LAUTREC 5.0
1 FALKIRK 8.2
11 UTZON 14.8
18 BESAME MUCHO 15.1

I had to drop one horse from each race that was equal 5th rated - Presently and Modern Era. I'll probably regret that.

W.FRM R7
18 BESAME MUCHO $3.50
7 PATEZZA $4.10
1 FALKIRK $10.50
5 BINDING $10.50
11 UTZON $10.50

MORP R7
3 RATHER GRAND $5.70
9 PURE VELOCITY $6.70
4 FINNISS D'OR $6.70
1 ALMOST NEVER $8.10
6 GRUNDY'S CROSSING $8.10

It appears that for the scoring of this comp. the prices are not needed, so I haven't. If it is differnet let me know.Liverpool City Cup
1. Falkirk
2. Binding
3. Patezza
4. Utzon
5. Mr Celebrity

Tokyo City Cup
1. Rather Grand
2. Grundys Crossing
3. Almost Never
4. Finnis D'Or
5. Get Up

Good Punting

No, prices aren't really needed. We just use them as a comparison. As long as you rate 5 horses in order, that's what matters.

SR7

11. Utzon $2.60
1. Falkirk $4.50
5. Binding $6.00
3. Toulouse Lautrec $15.00
7. Patezza $16.00

AR7

1. Almost Never $2.50
3. Rather Grand $4.25
4. Finniss d'Or $13.00
8. Modern Era $13.00
9. Pure Velocity $15.00

Cheers,
H.

Sydney race 7

11 Utzon
1 Falkirk
5 Binding
18 Besame Mucho
7 Patezza

Adelaide race 7

3 Rather Grand
1 Almost Never
4 Finnis D'or
6 Grundys Crossing
8 Modern Era

wont worry about prices as i cant seem to get them to accurate. Currently working on a new pricing strategy. The sydney race is particulary tough to predict, nice choice sportz.

Yeah, I'm going to make a bit of a change to my pricing method. The one I'm using favours the top rated horses just a touch too much. I'll post my new method on here for you to have a look at.

Almost Never is out!

Can I bump Grundy's Crossing up into 5th?
3. Rather Grand
4. Finniss D'Or
8. Modern Era
9. Pure Velocity
6. Grundy's Crossing

Cheers,

H.

Late Scratching Amendment
 

With the scratching of Almost Never, now No 10 Cointreau Ball becomes my fifth pick.

Yes, with the scratching, my top 5 for Adelaide is:

MORP R7
3 RATHER GRAND $5.70
9 PURE VELOCITY $6.70
4 FINNISS D'OR $6.70
6 GRUNDY'S CROSSING $8.10
8 MODERN ERA $8.10

I knew Sam Sung A Song would win if I left him out. I've been following him for ages, but this is a 'ratings' challenge, and on the ratings I did, he was only about 8th.

Well done to Kiwi. I think he was the only one to have him in his top 5.

Sportz, move my 3 4 and 5 selections up 1 place and put 2 Sure bet in for fith thanks

Sportz,

add Sure Bet in 5th place for late scratching

Cheers

Good move.

Personally, my ratings have had a shocker today. Back to Earth with a thud!!! :(

This week:

zorro (7.5 + 67.5) 75 pts
xpt driver (15 + 57.5) 72.5 pts
Jimmy (12.5 + 57.5) 70 pts
kiwi (37.5 + 32.5) 70 pts
QuickFunBet (12.5 + 40) 52.5 pts
Dr Ron (15 + 27.5) 42.5 pts
Sportz (15 + 22.5) 37.5 pts
Heavyweight (15 + 17.5) 32.5 pts
Duritz (15 + 12.5) 27.5 pts
Top Rank (17.5 + 7.5) 25 pts
The mug (7.5 + 17.5) 25 pts
La Mer (10 + 12.5) 22.5 pts
ubetido (7.5 + 12.5) 20 pts
Chrome Prince (7.5 + 10) 17.5 pts


Overall:

Sportz 552.5 pts
zorro 527.5 pts
La Mer 502.5 pts
Filante 482.5 pts
Top Rank 472.5 pts
Jimmy 452.5 pts
QuickFunBet 440 pts
Duritz 430 pts
xpt driver 425 pts
Heavyweight 410 pts
Dr Ron 387.5 pts
ubetido 385 pts
The mug 342.5 pts
Chrome Prince 322.5 pts
Shaun 292.5 pts
system 137.5 pts
kiwi 92.5 pts

Well done guys!

Zorro, you're doing very well consisently.
Sportz, very nice to be at the top....let me know what it's like :(

Despite bringing up the rear of the field, I think this is one of the best, entertaining and challenging comps we've had here - it really makes one think about the chances in a race and learn a bit as well, without having to bet.

Thanks Sportz.

Keep at it Chrome. I'm sure one of these days, you'll clean up and pick the first 4 in order or something. :)